As confidentially submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on January 29, 2021
This draft registration statement has not been publicly filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and all information herein remains strictly confidential.
Registration No. 333-
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
Amendment No. 2 to
FORM S-1
REGISTRATION STATEMENT
UNDER
THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933
Genworth Mortgage Holdings, Inc.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
| Delaware | 6411 | 46-1579166 | ||||||
| (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) | (Primary Standard Industrial Classification Code Number) | (I.R.S. Employer Identification Number) | ||||||
8325 Six Forks Road
Raleigh, North Carolina 27615
(919) 846-4100
(Address, including zip code, and telephone number, including area code, of registrant’s principal executive offices)
Evan Stolove
Genworth Mortgage Holdings, Inc.
8325 Six Forks Road
Raleigh, North Carolina 27615
(919) 846-4100
(Name, address, including zip code, and telephone number, including area code, of agent for service)
Copies to:
Perry J. Shwachman Michael J. Schiavone Sean M. Carney David Ni Sidley Austin LLP One South Dearborn Chicago, Illinois 60603 Telephone: (312) 853-7000 Telecopy: (312) 853-7036 | Dwight S. Yoo Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP One Manhattan West New York, New York 10001 Telephone: (212) 735-3000 Telecopy: (212) 735-2000 | Evan Stolove Genworth Mortgage Holdings, Inc. Senior Vice President and General Counsel 8325 Six Forks Road Raleigh, North Carolina 27615 Telephone: (919) 846-4100 Telecopy: (919) 846-4359 | Craig B. Brod Jeffrey D. Karpf Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP One Liberty Plaza New York, New York 10006 Telephone: (212) 225-2000 Telecopy: (212) 225-3999 | ||||||||
Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to the public: As soon as practicable after the effective date of this Registration Statement.
If any of the securities being registered on this Form are to be offered on a delayed or continuous basis pursuant to Rule 415 under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) check the following box. ☐
If this Form is filed to register additional securities for an offering pursuant to Rule 462(b) under the Securities Act, please check the following box and list the Securities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering. ☐
If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(c) under the Securities Act, check the following box and list the Securities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering. ☐
If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(d) under the Securities Act, check the following box and list the Securities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering. ☐
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company or an emerging growth company. See the definition of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company” and “emerging growth company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”).
| Large accelerated filer | ☐ | Accelerated filer | ☐ | ||||||||
| Non-accelerated filer | ☒ (Do not check if a smaller reporting company) | Smaller reporting company | ☐ | ||||||||
| Emerging growth company | ☒ | ||||||||||
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided to Section 7(a)(2)(B) of the Securities Act. ☐
CALCULATION OF REGISTRATION FEE
| Title of Each Class of Securities to be Registered | Proposed Maximum Aggregate Offering Price (1)(2) | Amount of Registration Fee | ||||||
| Common Stock, par value $0.001 per share | $ | $ | ||||||
(1)Estimated solely for the purpose of calculating the amount of the registration fee in accordance with Rule 457(o) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
(2)Includes additional shares that the underwriters have the option to purchase to cover over-allotments.
The Registrant hereby amends this Registration Statement on such date or dates as may be necessary to delay its effective date until the Registrant shall file a further amendment that specifically states that this Registration Statement shall thereafter become effective in accordance with Section 8(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or until the Registration Statement shall become effective on such date as the Securities and Exchange Commission, acting pursuant to said Section 8(a), may determine.
The information in this preliminary prospectus is not complete and may be changed. The selling stockholder may not sell these securities until the registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission is effective. This preliminary prospectus is not an offer to sell these securities and is not soliciting an offer to buy these securities in any state or other jurisdiction where the offer or sale is not permitted.
Subject to Completion. Dated , .
Shares
[Logo]
Genworth Mortgage Holdings, Inc.
Common Stock
This is the initial public offering of shares of our common stock. The selling stockholder named in this prospectus is offering shares of our common stock. We will not be selling any shares in this offering and will not receive any proceeds from the sale of our common stock by the selling stockholder.
Prior to this offering, there has been no public market for our common stock. We expect the initial public offering price to be between $ and $ per share. We intend to apply to list our common stock on the Nasdaq Capital Market (“Nasdaq”) under the symbol “ .”
After giving effect to this offering, Genworth Financial, Inc. (“Parent”), the parent of our direct parent and the selling stockholder in this offering, Genworth Holdings, Inc. (“GHI” or the “selling stockholder”), and our ultimate controlling entity, will continue to own, through GHI, more than a majority of the total voting power of our common stock. Accordingly, we will be a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq rules.
We are an “emerging growth company” as that term is used in the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act of 2012 (the “JOBS Act”) and under applicable Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) rules and, have elected to comply with certain reduced public company reporting requirements for this prospectus and future filings.
Investing in our common stock involves risks. See “Risk Factors” beginning on page 20 of this prospectus.
Neither the SEC nor any state securities commission has approved or disapproved of these securities or determined if this prospectus is truthful or complete. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.
Per Share | Total | ||||||||||
Public offering price | $ | $ | |||||||||
Underwriting discount (1) | $ | $ | |||||||||
Proceeds, before expenses, to the selling stockholder | $ | $ | |||||||||
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(1)See “Underwriting” for a detailed description of compensation payable to the underwriters.
The selling stockholder has granted the underwriters an option to purchase, within 30 days of the date of this prospectus, up to additional shares, at the public offering price, less the underwriting discount.
The shares will be ready for delivery on or about .
Joint Book-Running Managers
| Goldman, Sachs & Co. | J.P. Morgan | ||||
The date of this prospectus is , .
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page | |||||
You should rely only on the information contained in this prospectus or in any free writing prospectus that we authorize to be delivered to you. Neither we, the selling stockholder nor the underwriters have authorized anyone to provide you with additional or different information. If anyone provides you with additional, different or inconsistent information, you should not rely on it. This prospectus is an offer to sell only the common stock offered hereby, and only under circumstances and in jurisdictions where it is lawful to do so. You should assume the information contained in this prospectus and any free writing prospectus we authorize to be delivered to you is accurate only as of the date or dates specified in those documents. Our business, results of operations or financial condition may have changed since those dates.
For investors outside the United States: Neither we, the selling stockholder nor the underwriters have done anything that would permit this offering or possession or distribution of this prospectus in any jurisdiction where action for that purpose is required, other than in the United States. Persons outside the United States who come into possession of this prospectus must inform themselves about, and observe
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any restrictions relating to, the offering of the common stock and the distribution of this prospectus outside the United States.
Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this prospectus to the number and percentages of common stock:
•reflect the initial public offering price of $ per share, which is the midpoint of the price range set forth on the cover of this prospectus;
•reflect a -for-1 forward stock split of our common stock which our board of directors intends to approve and which will be effected prior to the consummation of this offering; and
•assume no exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase up to additional shares of common stock.
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INDUSTRY AND MARKET DATA
We obtained the industry, market and competitive position data throughout this prospectus from (1) our own internal estimates and research, (2) industry and general publications and research, (3) studies and surveys conducted by third parties, and (4) other publicly available information. Independent research reports and industry publications generally indicate that the information contained therein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of such information. While we believe that the information included in this prospectus from such publications, research, studies, and surveys is reliable, neither we, the selling stockholder nor the underwriters have independently verified data from these third-party sources. In addition, while we believe our internal estimates and research are reliable and the definitions of our market and industry are appropriate, neither such estimates and research nor such definitions have been verified by any independent source. Furthermore, certain reports, research and publications from which we have obtained industry and market data that are used in this prospectus had been published before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic (“COVID-19”) and therefore do not reflect any impact of COVID-19 or actions or inactions by any governmental entity or private party resulting therefrom on any specific market or globally. Forward-looking information obtained from these sources is subject to the same qualifications and the additional uncertainties as the other forward-looking statements in this prospectus.
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BASIS OF PRESENTATION AND NON-GAAP MEASURES
Historical Financial Statements
This prospectus includes our audited consolidated financial statements and related notes for the years ended December 31, 2019 and December 31, 2018 and our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements and related notes for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019. These financial statements are presented on the basis of accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (“GAAP”). The consolidated financial statements include the accounts of Genworth Mortgage Holdings, Inc. (“GMHI”), its subsidiaries and those entities required to be consolidated under GAAP. All intercompany transactions and balances have been eliminated.
These consolidated financial statements and related notes have been prepared on a standalone basis and were derived from the consolidated financial statements and accounting records of our Parent. The consolidated financial statements include our assets, liabilities, revenues, expenses and cash flows. For each of the periods presented, GMHI was an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of our Parent.
The consolidated financial statements include allocations of certain of our Parent’s expenses. We believe the assumptions and methodologies underlying the allocation of these expenses are reasonable. The allocated expenses relate to various services that have historically been provided to us by our Parent, including investment management, information technology services and certain administrative services (such as finance, human resources, employee benefit administration and legal). These allocations were made on a direct usage basis when identifiable, with the remainder allocated on the basis of equity, proportional effort or other relevant measures. See Note 10 to our audited consolidated financial statements for further information regarding the allocation of certain of our Parent’s expenses.
Fiscal Period
We operate on a fiscal year ending December 31 of each year.
Non-GAAP Measures
In addition to our GAAP operating results, we use adjusted operating income as a performance measure when planning, monitoring, and evaluating our performance. Adjusted operating income is a non-GAAP financial measure, and we find it to be a useful metric for management and investors to facilitate operating performance comparisons from period-to-period by excluding differences caused by our net investment gains (losses) and changes in the fair value of our previously held investment in Genworth MI Canada Inc. (“Genworth Canada”). While we believe that this non-GAAP financial measure is useful in evaluating our business, this information should be considered as supplemental in nature and is not meant as a substitute for net income recognized in accordance with GAAP or other measures of profitability. We believe that this non-GAAP measure reflects our ongoing business in a manner that allows for meaningful period-to-period comparisons and analysis of trends in our business in conjunction with such data. In addition, other companies, including our peers, may calculate similar non-GAAP measures, such as adjusted operating income differently, reducing their usefulness as comparative measures between companies.
In reporting non-GAAP measures in the future, we may make other adjustments for expenses and gains we do not consider reflective of core operating performance in a particular period. After this offering, we may disclose other non-GAAP financial and operating measures if we believe that such a presentation would be helpful for investors to evaluate our operating and financial condition by including additional information. For further information, please see the section entitled “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Use of Non-GAAP Measures.”
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TRADEMARKS AND TRADE NAMES
We own or have rights to trademarks or trade names that we use in conjunction with the operation of our business. Our name, logo and registered domain names are our proprietary service marks or trademarks. Each trademark, trade name or service mark by any other company appearing in this prospectus belongs to its holder. Solely for convenience, the trademarks, service marks, trade names and copyrights referred to in this prospectus are listed without the SM, ©, ® and TM symbols, but we will assert, to the fullest extent under applicable law, our rights to these trademarks, service marks, trade names and copyrights.
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PROSPECTUS SUMMARY
This summary highlights information contained elsewhere in this prospectus. This summary is not complete and does not contain all of the information that you should consider before investing in our common stock. You should carefully read this prospectus in its entirety before making an investment decision. In particular, you should read the sections entitled “Risk Factors” beginning on page 20, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” beginning on page 78, the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements and related notes for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 and the audited consolidated financial statements and notes thereto for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and other financial information included elsewhere in this prospectus. As used in this prospectus, unless the context otherwise indicates, any reference to “our company,” “the company,” “us,” “we” and “our” refers to GMHI together with our consolidated subsidiaries.
Unless otherwise indicated, the information included in this prospectus assumes (1) the sale of our common stock in this offering at the initial public offering price of $ per share of common stock, which is the mid-point of the price range set forth on the cover page of this prospectus, (2) reflects a -for-1 forward stock split of our common stock which our board of directors intends to approve and which will be effected prior to the consummation of this offering and (3) that the underwriters have not exercised their option to purchase up to additional shares of common stock.
In this prospectus, we make certain forward-looking statements, including expectations relating to our future performance. These expectations reflect management’s view of our prospects and are subject to the risks described under “Risk Factors” and “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements and Market Data” in this prospectus. Our expectations of our future performance may change after the date of this prospectus and there is no guarantee that such expectations will prove to be accurate.
Overview
We are a leading private mortgage insurance company serving the United States housing finance market since 1981 with a mission to help people buy a house and keep it their home. We operate in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and have a leading platform based on long-tenured customer relationships with mortgage lenders, underwriting excellence and prudent risk and capital management practices. We believe our operating and technological capabilities ensure a superior customer experience and drive new business volume at attractive risk-adjusted returns. For the full year ended December 31, 2019 and the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019, we generated new insurance written (“NIW”) of $62.4 billion, $72.9 billion and $44.3 billion, respectively. Our market share for the same periods was approximately 16.3%, 17.2% and 16.1%, respectively. For the full year ended December 31, 2019, we achieved adjusted operating income of $562 million. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, we achieved adjusted operating income of $281 million, which was impacted by increased loss reserves related to COVID-19, as compared to $406 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2019.
As a private mortgage insurer, we play a critical role in the United States housing finance system. We provide credit protection to mortgage lenders and investors, covering a portion of the unpaid principal balance of mortgage loans where the loan amount exceeds 80% of the value of the home (“Low-Down Payment Loans”). Our credit protection frequently provides families access to homeownership sooner than would otherwise be possible. We facilitate the sale of mortgages to the secondary market, including to the Federal National Mortgage Association (“Fannie Mae”) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (“Freddie Mac,” and together with Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored enterprises, or “GSEs”) and private investors, and protect the balance sheets of mortgage lenders that retain mortgages in their portfolios. Credit protection and liquidity through secondary market sales allow mortgage lenders to increase their lending capacity, manage risk and expand financing access to prospective homeowners, many of whom are first-time homebuyers (“FTHBs”).
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We have a large and diverse customer base. As a result of our long-standing presence in the industry, we have built and maintained enduring relationships across the mortgage origination market, including with national
banks, non-bank mortgage lenders, local mortgage bankers, community banks and credit unions. In 2019 and for the quarter ended September 30, 2020, we provided new insurance coverage to approximately 1,800 customers, including 19 of the top 20 mortgage lenders as measured by total 2019 mortgage originations (according to Inside Mortgage Finance).
We have a rigorous approach to writing new insurance risk based on decades of loan-level data and experience in the mortgage insurance industry. We believe we have a strong balance sheet that is well capitalized to manage through macroeconomic uncertainty and maintain Private Mortgage Insurance Eligibility Requirements (“PMIERs”) and state regulatory standards compliance. We have enhanced our balance sheet in recent years as we transformed our business model from a “buy and hold” strategy to an “acquire, distribute and manage” approach through our credit risk transfer (“CRT”) program. We utilize our CRT program to mitigate future loss volatility and drive efficient capital management. Our CRT program is a material component of our strategy and we believe it helps to protect future business performance and stockholder capital under stress scenarios by transferring risk from our balance sheet to highly-rated counterparties or to investors through collateralized transactions. As of September 30, 2020, we had a PMIERs capital ratio of 132%, representing $1,074 million of available assets above the published PMIERs requirement and approximately 93% of our insured portfolio was covered by our CRT program. PMIERs sufficiency is based on the published requirements applicable to private mortgage insurers and does not give effect to the GSE Restrictions (as defined herein).
Market Opportunities
Even in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for mortgage insurance has remained resilient and provided us with significant continued opportunities to write attractive, profitable new business. Record low interest rates and strong underlying demographics have provided tailwinds to the overall housing market, resulting in record levels of NIW. Certain positive trends, such as a growing FTHB population and accommodative monetary policy were observed even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and we expect them to persist. Through the end of the third quarter of 2020, the immediate and sizeable application of government stimulus and forbearance availability along with other government programs have provided key support to the housing market throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, industry NIW was $423 billion, up 54% compared with the nine months ended September 30, 2019.
In addition to the benefits from the strong demand for mortgage insurance, over the last decade, regulatory reforms and new industry practices have significantly improved the mortgage insurance industry’s risk profile. The quality of new mortgages originated in the United States and insured by the mortgage insurance industry over the last decade is of significantly higher credit quality than in the prior decade, and we believe the industry’s use of CRT alternatives will reduce loss volatility when stress defaults emerge. Additionally, the industry has shifted towards granular risk-based pricing models and new business has been priced at attractive risk-adjusted rates. We believe that we are well-positioned to benefit from these continuing trends and will be able to write a significant volume of highly attractive new business.
•Resilient housing market. We believe that recent data supports continued optimism in the resilience of the United States housing market that has resulted in recent record levels of industry NIW:
•Affordability and interest rates: Housing affordability promotes new mortgage originations and growing homeownership rates, particularly among FTHBs, which is a positive for our new business volumes. Rates for 30-year mortgages fell by 183 basis points from the end of 2018 to the third quarter of 2020. The National Association of Realtors Housing Affordability Index,
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which measures the ability of the median income homebuyer to make mortgage payments on the median-priced United States home, increased to 161 in August 2020 from 158 in 2017.
Interest rates have continued to fall over the course of 2020, as average rates on 30-year mortgages fell to 2.95% in the third quarter of 2020 from 3.51% in the first quarter of 2020 and reached a record low of 2.89% in September 2020.
•Housing prices: Housing prices in the United States have remained resilient through the COVID-19 pandemic, which has helped maintain strong consumer confidence in the housing market. Housing prices nationally increased 8.1% year-over-year in August 2020 according to the FHFA House Price Index, illustrating the continued strength and resiliency of the housing market. Among other drivers, housing prices have been supported by an ongoing low supply of homes for sale in many parts of the country.
•Demographics: Four to five million Americans per year are expected to reach the median FTHB age between 2020 and 2021, which is 33 years old according to the National Association of Realtors 2019 Buyer and Seller Survey. The rate at which FTHBs are entering the housing market is expected to drive an increased demand for homeownership relative to historical periods, as the number of projected new entrants to the FTHB population in 2021 is approximately 13% higher than the comparable figure in 2011 according to the United States Census Bureau. For the first nine months of 2020, FTHBs purchased 1.7 million homes, 9% more than a year ago. The third quarter of 2020 saw approximately 700,000 homes purchased by FTHBs, the most in a quarter since 1999 and up 16% compared to the third quarter of 2019. During the third quarter of 2020, the percentage of home sales to FTHBs was 39%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the second quarter. The large number of FTHBs in the third quarter reflects an increase in homeownership rate, which was 67.4% in the third quarter of 2020 according to the United States Census Bureau, representing an increase of 2.6 percentage points relative to the prior year. We expect these demographic forces to remain strong as the COVID-19 pandemic is an additional driver for demand in homeownership in an environment that has become more accepting of work-from-home arrangements.
•New mortgage originations: Despite macroeconomic uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic, purchase applications were 23% higher for the third quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter in 2019 and experienced year-over-year gains every week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (the “MBA”). Given the current economic environment, the MBA projects that purchase originations will continue to grow from a projected $1.4 trillion for 2020 to approximately $1.6 trillion for 2022.
•Forbearance: As a result of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (the “CARES Act”) and other government and GSE policies enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, borrowers broadly have had access to forbearance and foreclosure moratoria programs that allow borrowers to remain in their homes and delay principal and interest payments for up to 12 months. We believe that these programs have contributed to the positive trends in the housing market as they allow many borrowers to navigate the current crisis, remain in their homes, subsequently become current on their mortgages as the economy improves and ultimately resume making regular mortgage payments. Given that mortgage insurance claims are not paid until after foreclosure proceedings conclude, resumption of payment by borrowers would reduce our actual loss exposure. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, forbearance rates peaked at 7.1% as of May 26, 2020 and have since steadily declined according to data provided by Black Knight Inc. (“Black Knight”). As of October 27, 2020, 3.9% of all GSE mortgages were in forbearance.
•Sustained strong credit quality within the United States housing system. The high-quality nature of underlying mortgages in recent years is the result of improved risk analytics, stronger
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loan manufacturing quality controls, risk-based capital (“RBC”) rules and the regulatory implementation of the Qualified Mortgage (“QM”) provisions. Additionally, changes within the private mortgage insurance industry such as PMIERs operational requirements and the adoption of more granular risk-based pricing models have enabled the private mortgage insurance industry to underwrite the risks they accept in their insurance portfolio based on more granular data. Over the past decade, the average Fair Isaac Corporation (“FICO”) score on all mortgage loans originated in the United States and sold to the GSEs was 752, compared to 718 for the period from 2005 through 2008, based on data from the GSEs. As a result, we believe the industry is insuring loans from borrowers who should be better positioned to meet their mortgage obligations, which should translate into fewer claims for the mortgage insurance industry. Additionally, the credit quality of new business written since the onset of COVID-19 is even stronger. The industry’s NIW mix of above-740 borrowers increased by 2.0 percentage points to 65% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2020, and that percentage remained unchanged during the third quarter of 2020. The mix of below-680 borrowers decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 3.7% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2020 and similarly remained unchanged during the third quarter of 2020.
•The increasing availability and attractiveness of risk transfer alternatives has improved the industry’s risk profile. Since 2015, private mortgage insurers have used CRT alternatives to reinsure or otherwise transfer risk to third parties. The industry uses both traditional reinsurance as well as mortgage insurance-linked notes (“MILNs”). According to U.S. Mortgage Insurers, as of October 2020 private mortgage insurers have transferred approximately $29 billion of risk to traditional reinsurers through quota share (“QS”) and excess-of-loss (“XOL”) transactions and transferred almost $12.3 billion of risk to the capital markets through MILN transactions since 2015.
Private mortgage insurers have generally utilized CRT as both a capital management tool and a programmatic approach to mitigate future loss volatility and they have transformed from a “buy and hold” strategy to an “acquire, distribute and manage” approach. We believe that the adoption of these practices in the industry will reduce the capital and loss volatility that historically impacted the sector during economic downturns, at an attractive cost, generating higher returns through the cycle for the industry.
•Strong private mortgage insurance penetration in the insured purchase mortgage market. Private mortgage insurance has increased penetration as a result of the introduction of new GSE products designed to serve Low-Down Payment Loan borrowers and more competitive pricing by private mortgage insurers relative to the Federal Housing Administration (“FHA”). In 2019, the FHA insured 28% of all new Low-Down Payment Loan originations with private mortgage insurance insuring 45%. Also, in 2018 and 2019, private mortgage insurance helped to finance more FTHBs than the FHA. We believe there may be additional opportunities for private mortgage insurers to increase market share as the United States government considers further actions to reduce taxpayers’ exposure to the housing markets, and, in the private market, by providing risk and capital relief for lender portfolios and loans supporting private mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”).
Our Strengths
We believe that the following competitive strengths have supported our success to-date and provide a strong foundation for our future financial performance:
•Well-established, diversified customer relationships driven by our differentiated value proposition. We have long-standing and enduring relationships with more than 1,800 active customers across the mortgage origination market, including with national banks, non-bank mortgage lenders, local mortgage bankers, community banks and credit unions. Approximately
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92% of our NIW in 2019 and for the quarter ended September 30, 2020 was from customers who have submitted loans to us every year since 2015.
We offer competitive pricing combined with targeted services that distinguish us from our competitors. We reach our customers through our dynamic sales model, which combines high-touch, in-person customer visits with more scalable tele-sales and digital marketing methods. Our approach allows us to offer our products, tools, and solutions effectively and efficiently, providing a superior customer experience, including:
•Best-in-class underwriting platform: We believe our investments in technology, service and training have distinguished our underwriting services. We were the first mortgage insurer to broadly introduce service level commitments to meet customer needs for expedited underwriting services, and we continue to innovate through differentiated offerings that drive both an excellent customer experience and improved efficiency for us. Our scalable underwriting platform has a proven ability to handle spikes in volume while continuing to achieve customer service level expectations. In a blind survey of mortgage lenders conducted by Knowledge Systems & Research, Inc. (“KS&R”), we were rated as “best-in-class” for mortgage insurance underwriting in 2016, 2017 and 2018, the last three years in which the survey was conducted.
•Customer ease-of-use: Our online tools integrate with all leading mortgage technology platforms, allowing our customers to select our products directly within their own system architecture, creating a more efficient way to choose and use our products. In addition, we maintain an award-winning ordering and rate quote website.
•Customer growth support: We support our customers’ growth objectives with a wide variety of training programs. We also provide unique offerings, including strategy and process consulting services and differentiated borrower-centric products.
•Large portfolio of insurance in-force. As of September 30, 2020, we had $212 billion insurance in-force (“IIF”) as compared to $185 billion for the same period in 2019. Since January 1, 2019, we have generated $135 billion of NIW with an average market share of 16.8% and have grown our IIF 28% over the same time period. The growth in our IIF has resulted in premiums earned growing from $746.9 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2018 to $958.4 million for the twelve months ended September 30, 2020. We believe our portfolio has significant embedded value potential and creates a strong foundation for future premiums.
•Risk analytics and underwriting drive strong underlying credit quality of insurance portfolio. We believe we have a very strong approach to onboarding risk backed by decades of loan-level performance data and experience in the mortgage insurance industry. We ensure that the underlying credit quality of our insured mortgage portfolio meets our risk and profitability framework. In order to underwrite new policies, we utilize a proprietary risk analytics model, One Analytical Framework, to target loans within our risk appetite with an appropriate price. This framework leverages our unique data set, which contains decades of mortgage performance across various market conditions to develop quantitative assessments of the probability of default, severity of loss and expected volatility on each insured loan. Additionally, all loans pass through our eligibility rules engine to screen out those loans that fall outside of our guidelines.
We perform rigorous analytics to evaluate the risk characteristics of our portfolio. We analyze the cumulative layered risks, which includes factors like the loan-to-value (“LTV”), FICO, debt-to-income ratio (“DTI Ratio”) and occupancy type, in each loan. Our models can assess the effect of such layered risks and the weight of each risk factor to determine the volatility of losses. The information is used to drive our risk appetite and pricing at a loan level. For example, we actively manage the number of loans with LTV greater than 95% that also have FICO scores of less than 680 (“High-Risk Loans”) and have additional high risk layers, including single borrower, DTI Ratio
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of greater than 45%, cash-out refinances or are investor-owned properties (each a “Risk Layer,” and collectively, “Risk Layers”). Among our High-Risk Loans as of September 30, 2020, none of our risk-in-force (“RIF”) had three or more Risk Layers, 0.3% of our RIF had two Risk Layers and 1.1% of our RIF had one Risk Layer. For our NIW for the nine months ended September 30, 2020, none of our High-Risk Loans had one or more of these added Risk Layers.
The equity position of many borrowers in our portfolio provides additional strength and may support fewer borrowers defaulting and resulting in a mortgage insurance claim. Approximately 80% of our IIF and 76% of our RIF have a mark to market LTV of less than or equal to 90%. With so many borrowers having significant equity in their home, we believe this provides an additional risk mitigant as borrowers will work to maintain their equity and avoid foreclosure.
•Comprehensive risk management and CRT philosophy. Beyond our approach for underwriting and onboarding a portfolio that aligns with our risk appetite, we also conduct quarterly stress testing on the portfolio to determine the impact of various stress events on our performance. The result of those tests and our desire to reduce loss volatility and protect our capitalization inform our CRT strategy.
Our CRT strategy is designed to reduce the loss volatility of our portfolio during stress scenarios by transferring risk from our balance sheet to highly-rated counterparties or to investors through collateralized transactions. Additionally, in normal market conditions, we believe our CRT program enhances our return profile. We customize our CRT transactions based on a variety of factors including, but not limited to, capacity, cost, flexibility, sustainability and diversification.
Since 2015, we have executed CRT transactions on over $2.4 billion of RIF across both traditional reinsurance arrangements and MILN transactions. We believe that our ability to access both markets allows us to optimize cost of capital, provides counterparty diversification and minimizes warehousing risk through the use of forward commitments with traditional reinsurance partners.
As of September 30, 2020, approximately 93% of our RIF is covered under our current CRT program, and we estimate our book year reinsurance transactions to begin transferring losses at an approximate 30% lifetime book year loss ratio and extend up to an approximate 70% lifetime book year loss ratio, depending on our co-participation level within the reinsurance tier. As of September 30, 2020, we maintain $1.1 billion of reinsurance protection outstanding on our 2009 to 2020 book years, providing $777 million of PMIERs capital support, which does not include the transaction completed on October 22, 2020. See “Business—Credit Risk Transfer.” We plan to continue to utilize CRT transactions to effectively manage our through-the-cycle risk and return profile.
•Strong capitalization driven by prudently managed balance sheet. We are a strongly capitalized counterparty. As of September 30, 2020, we had total GAAP stockholder equity of $3.8 billion and a PMIERs capital ratio of 132%, representing $1,074 million of available assets above the published PMIERs requirements. PMIERs sufficiency is based on the published requirements applicable to private mortgage insurers and does not give effect to the GSE Restrictions (as defined herein). Our mortgage insurance subsidiaries had total statutory capital and surplus of $4.0 billion as of September 30, 2020. Our combined statutory risk-to-capital (“RTC”) ratio at the same date was 12.1:1, well below the North Carolina Department of Insurance (“NCDOI”) regulatory maximum of 25:1.
•Dynamic leadership team with through-the-cycle experience and a proven track record of delivering results. Our executive leadership team has significant experience in mortgage
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insurance and housing finance, with a proven track record of risk management, financial success and leadership through-the-cycle.
•Our executive management team has an average of 27 years of relevant industry experience, and an average tenure in the mortgage insurance industry of 14 years.
•Our team has executed through-the-cycle while facing multiple headwinds, including macroeconomic conditions, changing capital regimes, ratings disparity to competitors and challenges faced by our Parent.
•Our intentional focus on reinforcing, recognizing and rewarding our values of Excellence, Improvement and Connection has driven high employee engagement and has been recognized externally at both the local and industry levels, including the Triangle Business Journal Best Places to Work and MBA Diversity & Inclusion award programs.
•We believe our executive management team has the right combination of client-facing, underwriting, risk and leadership skills necessary to drive our long-term success.
Our Strategy
Our objective is to leverage our competitive strengths to maximize value for our stockholders by driving profitable market share, maintaining our strong capital levels and earnings profile and delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns:
•Continue to write profitable new business. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have written significant NIW of higher-credit quality at higher pricing. We believe that the resilience of the housing market, which is supported by record low interest rates and strong underlying demographics, will continue to provide a positive backdrop for us to maintain writing new business at an attractive return.
•Protect our balance sheet by maintaining strong capital levels, robust underwriting standards and prudently managing risk. We understand the importance of our balance sheet strength to our customers and intend to continue to serve as a high-quality counterparty. We use One Analytical Framework to evaluate returns and volatility, applying both an external regulatory lens and an economic capital framework that is sensitive to current housing market cycles relative to historical trends. The results of these analyses inform our risk appetite, credit policy and targeted risk selection strategies, which we primarily implement through our proprietary pricing engine, GenRATE. We work to protect future business performance and stockholder capital under stress scenarios with a programmatic CRT program, including traditional XOL reinsurance and MILNs. Our CRT program has helped transform our business model from a “buy and hold” strategy to an “acquire, distribute and manage” approach. We believe the comprehensive rigor of our underwriting and risk management policies and procedures allows us to prudently manage and protect our balance sheet.
•Maintain existing relationships and develop new relationships by driving differentiated value and experience. We offer our customers a unique value proposition and an experience tailored to their needs, with expedited, quality underwriting and fair and transparent claims handling practices. Our dynamic sales model serves customers from all segments, including high-touch national accounts, regional accounts where a localized presence is necessary and a scalable tele-sales model to efficiently reach our full suite of customers. We intend to leverage our strengths in these areas to continue serving our existing customer base while also establishing new relationships.
•Strategically invest in technologies and capabilities to drive operational excellence across our business. Our investments in underwriting, risk management, data analytics and customer technology have both optimized our business and improved our customers’ experience. We plan
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to continue to invest in solutions that keep us at the forefront of technological advancements, fostering efficiency and helping to secure new customers.
•Prudent capital management to maximize stockholder value. Our capital management approach is to maximize value to our stockholders by prioritizing the use of our capital to (i) support our existing policyholders; (ii) grow our mortgage insurance business; (iii) fund attractive new business opportunities; and (iv) return capital to stockholders. When evaluating a potential return of capital to stockholders, we prudently evaluate the prevailing and future macroeconomic conditions, business performance and trends, regulatory requirements, any applicable contractual or similar restrictions and PMIERs sufficiency.
•Continue to remain engaged with the regulatory landscape and promote the importance of the private mortgage insurance industry. We believe the private mortgage insurance industry plays a critical role in the success of the United States housing market. We have a government and industry affairs team who play a leadership role across the mortgage insurance industry to monitor the landscape and stay apprised of new and potential developments that could impact mortgage insurance. We have strong relationships with the GSEs, the key federal government agencies and various other regulatory bodies and industry associations who are important to the housing ecosystem and we actively work to provide input on outcomes of key legislation and regulation. We also maintain consistent dialogue with state insurance regulators. We intend to continue to support the role of a stable and competitive private mortgage insurance industry and a well-functioning United States housing finance system.
Our Parent and Principal Stockholder
Our Parent currently owns all of the shares of our common stock indirectly through GHI. GHI, the sole selling stockholder in this offering, is selling shares (or shares if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares) of our common stock in this offering. Following this offering, our Parent will own approximately % (or approximately % if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares) of our outstanding common stock indirectly through GHI. Our Parent will therefore control a majority of the total voting power of our common stock. As a result, our Parent generally will be able to determine the outcome of corporate actions requiring majority stockholder approval, including, for example, the election of directors and the amendment of our certificate of incorporation and bylaws. Our Parent may also have interests that differ from yours and may vote in a way with which you disagree and which may be adverse to your interests. In addition, we will be a “controlled company” within the meaning of rules, and intend to rely on “controlled company” exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements. For additional information regarding the exemptions on which we intend to rely, see “Management—Controlled Company” and “Risk Factors—General Risk Factors—We will be a ‘controlled company’ within the meaning of the rules and we will qualify for exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements.” For additional information regarding our Parent’s ability to control the outcome of matters put to a stockholder vote and potential conflicts of interest, see “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—Our Parent will be able to exert significant influence over us and our corporate decisions.” and “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—Conflicts of interest and other disputes may arise between our Parent and us that may be resolved in a manner unfavorable to us and our other stockholders.”
In connection with this offering, we and our Parent and certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries intend to enter into agreements that will provide a framework for our ongoing relationship with our Parent. For example, following this offering and for so long as our Parent continues to beneficially own 50% or more of our outstanding common stock, our Parent will have the right to nominate the majority of our directors. For additional information regarding these agreements, see “Certain Relationships and Related Party Transactions—Relationship with Our Parent.”
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We depend on our Parent for certain services and are exposed to certain risks as a result of our relationship with our Parent. Our Parent also has substantial leverage and depends on us as a source of liquidity. See “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—Our brand, reputation and ratings could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects,” “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—Our Parent’s indebtedness and potential liquidity constraints may negatively affect us.” and “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—The AXA Settlement may negatively affect our ability to finance our business with additional debt, equity or other strategic transactions.”
On October 21, 2016, our Parent entered into an agreement and plan of merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Asia Pacific Global Capital Co., Ltd., a limited liability company incorporated in the People’s Republic of China and a subsidiary of China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd., a limited liability company incorporated in the People’s Republic of China (together with its affiliates, “China Oceanwide”), and Asia Pacific Global Capital USA Corporation (“Merger Sub”), a Delaware corporation and a direct, wholly-owned subsidiary of Asia Pacific Insurance USA Holdings LLC (“Asia Pacific Insurance”), which is a Delaware limited liability company and owned by China Oceanwide, pursuant to which, subject to the terms and conditions set forth therein, Merger Sub would merge with and into our Parent, with our Parent surviving the merger as a direct, wholly-owned subsidiary of Asia Pacific Insurance (the “Merger”). China Oceanwide has agreed to acquire all of our Parent’s outstanding common stock for a total transaction value of approximately $2.7 billion, or $5.43 per share in cash. At a special meeting held on March 7, 2017, our Parent’s stockholders voted on and approved a proposal to adopt the Merger Agreement. However, the closing of the transaction remains subject to other closing conditions.
In addition to the Merger Agreement, the parties have entered into various waivers and agreements thereto, extending the closing of the Merger. Most recently, on November 30, 2020, the parties entered into the Seventeenth Waiver and Agreement (the “Seventeenth Waiver”) of each party’s right to terminate their previously announced Merger Agreement. The Seventeenth Waiver extended the previous deadline of November 30, 2020 to no later than December 31, 2020 (the “End Date”). As reported by our Parent on January 4, 2021, given uncertainty around the completion and timing of the remaining steps required to close the transaction, our Parent and China Oceanwide have decided not to further extend the End Date under the Merger Agreement, but pursuant to the terms thereof, the Merger Agreement will remain in effect with either party having the right to terminate the Merger Agreement at any time.
In addition to us, our Parent has ownership interests in other international mortgage insurance businesses located in Australia and Mexico that are separate from our business. Our Parent also owns other insurance subsidiaries that provide long-term care and life insurance in the United States.
Summary Risk Factors
An investment in our common stock involves numerous risks described in the section entitled “Risk Factors” and elsewhere in this prospectus. You should carefully consider these risks before making an investment in our common stock. Key risks include, but are not limited to, the following:
•The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and uncertainties, including the scope and duration of the pandemic and responsive actions taken by governmental authorities and its impact on the housing market.
•If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions (as defined herein) and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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•A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience.
•We establish loss reserves when we are notified that an insured loan is in default, based on management’s estimate of claim rates and claim sizes, which are subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions about certain estimation parameters that may be volatile. As a result, the actual claim payments we make may materially differ from the amount of our corresponding loss reserves.
•If the models used in our business are inaccurate or there are differences and/or variability in loss development compared to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
•Competition within the mortgage insurance industry could result in the loss of market share, loss of customers, lower premiums, wider credit guidelines and other changes that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
•Changes to the role of the GSEs or to the charters or business practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
•The amount of mortgage insurance we write could decline significantly if alternatives to private mortgage insurance are used or lower coverage levels of mortgage insurance are selected.
•Our reliance on customer relationships could cause us to lose significant sales if one or more of those relationships terminate or are reduced.
•Our brand, reputation and ratings could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.
Emerging Growth Company Status
As a company with less than $1.07 billion in revenues during our most recent fiscal year, we qualify and intend to characterize ourselves as an “emerging growth company” under the JOBS Act. An emerging growth company may take advantage of reduced reporting requirements and is relieved of certain other significant requirements that are otherwise generally applicable to public companies. As an emerging growth company:
•we may present only two years of audited financial statements and only two years of related management discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations;
•we are exempt from the requirement to obtain an attestation and report from our auditors on management’s assessment of our internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (the “Sarbanes-Oxley Act”);
•we are permitted to provide less extensive disclosure about our executive compensation arrangements; and
•we are not required to give our stockholders non-binding advisory votes on executive compensation or golden parachute arrangements.
We have elected to take advantage of the reduced disclosure requirements and other relief described above in this prospectus and may take advantage of these exemptions for so long as we remain an emerging growth company. In general, we will be an emerging growth company until the earliest of (i) the end of the fiscal year during which we have total annual gross revenues of $1.07 billion or more, (ii) the end of the fiscal year following the fifth anniversary of the completion of this offering, (iii) the date on which we have, during the previous three-year period, issued more than $1.0 billion in non-convertible
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debt, or (iv) the date on which we are deemed to be a “large accelerated filer,” which will occur at such time that we (a) have an aggregate worldwide market value of common equity securities held by non-affiliates of $700 million or more as of the last business day of our most recently completed second fiscal quarter, (b) have been required to file annual and quarterly reports under the Exchange Act for a period of at least 12 months, and (c) have filed at least one annual report pursuant to the Exchange Act.
In addition to scaled disclosure and the other relief described above, the JOBS Act permits us an extended transition period for complying with new or revised accounting standards affecting public companies. We have elected to apply the extended transition periods for new accounting standards applicable to private companies, further described in Note 2 to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the period ended September 30, 2020.
Our Corporate Information
We are incorporated in Delaware and are an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of our Parent, a diversified insurance holding company listed on the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”).
Our primary operating subsidiary, Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation (“GMICO”), is domiciled in North Carolina, and we are headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Our principal executive offices are located at 8325 Six Forks Road, Raleigh, North Carolina 27615 and our telephone number is (919) 846-4100. Our corporate website address is https://mortgageinsurance.genworth.com/. We do not incorporate the information contained on, or accessible through, our corporate website into this prospectus, and you should not consider it a part of this prospectus. We have included our website address only as an inactive textual reference and do not intend it to be an active link to our website.
Organizational Chart
Below is a simplified and illustrative organizational chart summarizing our ownership including the ownership of our public stockholders and our Parent and the ownership of our subsidiaries following the completion of this offering. This chart also presents the jurisdiction of incorporation for each subsidiary and notes whether a subsidiary is a holding company, regulated insurance entity or non-insurance entity. The ownership of all entities in the chart below is 100% unless otherwise noted. Upon the completion of this offering, our Parent will indirectly own approximately % of our outstanding common stock (approximately % if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares) and
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public stockholders will own approximately % of our outstanding common stock (approximately % if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares).
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(1)In connection with the AXA Settlement (as defined herein), our Parent entered into a Promissory Note (as defined herein) in an amount of approximately $400 million, which is secured, in part, by a 19.9% interest in our common stock held by our Parent. The collateral will be fully released upon full repayment of the Promissory Note and may be partially released under certain circumstances upon certain prepayments. See “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—Our Parent’s indebtedness and potential liquidity constraints may negatively affect us” and “The AXA Settlement may negatively affect our ability to finance our business with additional debt, equity or other strategic transactions.”
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The Offering
Common stock offered by the selling stockholder in this offering | shares (plus up to an additional shares of common stock that the selling stockholder may sell upon the exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares of common stock). | ||||
Common stock outstanding before and after this offering | shares. | ||||
Underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares | The selling stockholder has granted the underwriters an option to purchase, within 30 days of the date of this prospectus, up to additional shares, at the public offering price, less the underwriting discount. | ||||
Use of proceeds | We will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares of our common stock by the selling stockholder in this offering, including from any exercise by the underwriters of their option to purchase additional shares from the selling stockholder. The selling stockholder will receive all of the net proceeds from this offering and will bear the underwriting discount and reimburse us for expenses attributable to their sale of our common stock. See “Use of Proceeds.” | ||||
Dividend policy | Our board of directors may in the future determine to declare and to pay a dividend on our common stock on an annual or more frequent basis based on our capital levels and in accordance with applicable laws and regulatory guidance. See “Dividend Policy.” | ||||
Controlled company | Following this offering, we will be a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq rules as our Parent will continue to own, through GHI, more than a majority of the total voting power of our common stock. | ||||
Listing | We intend to apply to list our common stock on the Nasdaq under the symbol “ .” | ||||
Risk Factors | An investment in our common stock is subject to substantial risks. Please refer to the information contained in the sections entitled “Summary Risk Factors” and “Risk Factors” for a discussion of factors you should carefully consider before investing in our common stock. | ||||
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Summary Historical Consolidated Financial and Operating Data
The following table sets forth GMHI’s summary historical consolidated financial and operating data as of the dates and for the periods indicated. The historical consolidated financial and operating data as of December 31, 2019 and 2018 and for each of the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 have been derived from our audited consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this prospectus. We derived the summary condensed consolidated historical financial data as of and for the nine-month periods ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 from our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for such periods, included elsewhere in this prospectus, and which contain all adjustments, consisting of normal recurring adjustments, that management considers necessary for a fair presentation of our financial position and results of operations for the periods presented. See “Basis of Presentation and Non-GAAP Measures.” Our consolidated financial statements and the related notes were prepared on a standalone basis and were derived from the consolidated financial statements and accounting records of our Parent. For each of the periods presented, GMHI was an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of our Parent.
We are presenting only two years of audited consolidated financial information. The summary historical consolidated financial information is not necessarily indicative of the results that may be expected in any future period, and our results of operations for the six-month periods are not necessarily indicative of the results to be expected for the full year. The following summary historical consolidated financial and operating data should be read in conjunction with “Capitalization,” “Selected Historical Consolidated Financial Data” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and the consolidated financial statements and related notes appearing elsewhere in this prospectus.
The summary historical consolidated financial information has been prepared on a standalone basis and was derived from the consolidated financial statements and accounting records of our Parent. The consolidated financial statements include our assets, liabilities, revenues, expenses and cash flows. For each of the periods presented, GMHI was an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of our Parent.
The summary historical consolidated financial information includes allocations of certain of our Parent’s expenses. We believe the assumptions and methodologies underlying the allocation of these expenses are reasonable. The allocated expenses relate to various services that have historically been provided to us by our Parent, including investment management, information technology services and certain administrative services (such as finance, human resources, employee benefit administration and legal). These allocations were made on a direct usage basis when identifiable, with the remainder allocated on the basis of equity, proportional effort or other relevant measures. See Note 10 to our audited consolidated financial statements and Note 9 to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for further information regarding the allocation of our Parent’s expenses.
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| Statements of Income Data | Nine months ended September 30, | Year ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
(amounts in thousands) | 2020 | 2019 | 2019 | 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Revenues: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premiums | $ | 720,474 | $ | 619,083 | $ | 856,976 | $ | 746,864 | |||||||||||||||
| Net investment income | 97,890 | 86,900 | 116,927 | 93,198 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Net investment gains (losses) | (1,953) | 174 | 718 | (552) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Other income | 4,534 | 3,209 | 4,232 | 1,587 | |||||||||||||||||||
Total revenues | $ | 820,945 | $ | 709,366 | $ | 978,853 | $ | 841,097 | |||||||||||||||
| Losses and expenses: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Losses incurred | 290,785 | 39,288 | 49,850 | 36,405 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Acquisition and operating expenses, net of deferrals | 155,473 | 141,977 | 195,768 | 176,986 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs and intangibles | 11,453 | 11,415 | 15,065 | 14,037 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 5,512 | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||
Total losses and expenses | $ | 463,223 | $ | 192,680 | $ | 260,683 | $ | 227,428 | |||||||||||||||
| Income before income taxes and change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | 357,722 | 516,686 | 718,170 | 613,669 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Provision for income taxes | 78,482 | 110,774 | 155,832 | 129,807 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Income before change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | 279,240 | 405,912 | 562,338 | 483,862 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate, net of taxes | — | 81,929 | 115,290 | (30,261) | |||||||||||||||||||
Net income | $ | 279,240 | $ | 487,841 | $ | 677,628 | $ | 453,601 | |||||||||||||||
| Balance Sheet Data | As of September 30, | As of December 31, | |||||||||||||||
(amounts in thousands except share and per share amounts) | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | ||||||||||||||
| Assets | |||||||||||||||||
| Total investments | $ | 4,808,379 | $ | 3,764,432 | $ | 3,699,253 | |||||||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 556,734 | 585,058 | 159,051 | ||||||||||||||
| Other assets | 145,103 | 153,434 | 212,496 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | $ | 5,510,216 | $ | 4,502,924 | $ | 4,070,800 | |||||||||||
| Liabilities and equity | |||||||||||||||||
| Liabilities: | |||||||||||||||||
| Loss reserves | $ | 474,744 | $ | 235,062 | $ | 297,879 | |||||||||||
| Unearned premiums | 328,369 | 383,458 | 421,788 | ||||||||||||||
| Long-term borrowings | 737,622 | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Other liabilities | 202,851 | 57,329 | 77,394 | ||||||||||||||
| Total equity | 3,766,630 | 3,827,075 | 3,273,739 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities and equity | $ | 5,510,216 | $ | 4,502,924 | $ | 4,070,800 | |||||||||||
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| Other Operating Data | Nine Months ended September 30, | Years ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
($ amounts in millions) | 2020 | 2019 | 2019 | 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
NIW (for the period ended) (1) | $ | 72,854 | $ | 44,260 | $ | 62,431 | $ | 39,961 | |||||||||||||||
IIF (as of) (2) | $ | 212,436 | $ | 185,364 | $ | 191,284 | $ | 165,658 | |||||||||||||||
RIF (as of) (3) | $ | 51,393 | $ | 44,903 | $ | 46,246 | $ | 40,136 | |||||||||||||||
Persistency Rate (for the period ended) (4) | 64 | % | 80 | % | 78 | % | 84 | % | |||||||||||||||
Adjusted Operating Income (for the period ended) (5) | $ | 281 | $ | 406 | $ | 562 | $ | 484 | |||||||||||||||
Loss ratio (for the period ended) (6) | 40 | % | 6 | % | 6 | % | 5 | % | |||||||||||||||
Expense ratio (net earned premiums) (for the period ended) (7) | 23 | % | 25 | % | 25 | % | 26 | % | |||||||||||||||
PMIERs excess (as of) (8) | $ | 1,074 | $ | 861 | $ | 1,057 | $ | 786 | |||||||||||||||
PMIERs sufficiency ratio (as of) (9) | 132 | % | 129 | % | 138 | % | 129 | % | |||||||||||||||
GMICO RTC ratio (as of) (10) | 12.3 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
Policies in-force (count) (as of) (11) | 913,974 | 833,215 | 851,070 | 772,470 | |||||||||||||||||||
Delinquent loans (count) (as of) (12) | 49,692 | 15,758 | 16,392 | 16,860 | |||||||||||||||||||
Delinquency Rate (as of) (13) | 5.44 | % | 1.89 | % | 1.93 | % | 2.18 | % | |||||||||||||||
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(1)Presents the aggregate loan balance on new primary policies written during a given period. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations and Key Metrics—Key Metrics.”
(2)Presents the aggregated estimated unpaid principal balance of the primary mortgages we insure at a given date. IIF represents the remaining sum total of NIW from all prior periods less policy cancellations (including for prepayment, nonpayment of premiums and claims payment) and rescissions. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations and Key Metrics—Key Metrics.”
(3)Presents the aggregate amount of coverage we provide on primary policies in-force as of a given date. RIF is calculated as the sum total of coverage percentage of each individual policy in our portfolio applied to the estimated unpaid principal balance of such insured mortgage. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations and Key Metrics—Key Metrics.”
(4)Presents the annualized percentage of IIF for prior periods (quarter or year) on a primary basis that remains as of a given date. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations and Key Metrics—Key Metrics.”
(5)Adjusted operating income is a Non-GAAP measure. We present adjusted operating income as a supplemental measure of our performance. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations and Key Metrics—Use of Non-GAAP Measures” for its definition and a reconciliation to net income and “Basis of Presentation and Non-GAAP Measures—Non-GAAP Measures.”
(6)Calculated by dividing losses incurred by net earned premiums.
(7)Calculated by dividing acquisition and operating expenses, net of deferrals, plus amortization of DAC and intangibles by net earned premiums.
(8)Calculated as total available assets less net required assets, based on the PMIERs then in effect.
(9)Calculated as total available assets divided by net required assets, based on the PMIERs then in effect.
(10)Our primary operating subsidiary, GMICO’s RTC ratio, calculated by dividing GMICO’s statutory RTC RIF by its statutory capital (insurer’s policyholders’ surplus plus the statutory contingency reserves).
(11)Presents the number of primary policies we insure as of the dates indicated.
(12)Presents on a primary basis the total delinquent loans reported to us as of the dates indicated. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations and Key Metrics—Key Metrics.”
(13)Presents on a primary basis the total reported delinquent loans divided by the total policies in force. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations and Key Metrics—Key Metrics.”
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RISK FACTORS
Investing in our common stock involves a high degree of risk, including the potential loss of all or part of your investment. Before making an investment decision to purchase our common stock, you should carefully read and consider all of the risks and uncertainties described below, some of which may be exacerbated by COVID-19, as well as other information included in this prospectus, including “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and the consolidated financial statements and notes thereto appearing at the end of this prospectus. The occurrence of any of the following risks or additional risks and uncertainties that are currently immaterial or unknown could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. The following risk factors are not necessarily presented in order of relative importance and should not be considered to represent a complete set of all potential risks that could affect us. This prospectus also contains forward-looking statements and estimates that involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements as a result of specific factors, including the risks and uncertainties described below. See “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements and Market Data.”
Risks Relating to Our Business
The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted our business, and its ultimate impact on our business and financial results will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the pandemic, the resurgence of cases of the disease, the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread, the timing and successful rollout of vaccines, and other actions taken by governmental authorities in response to the pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having, and will continue to have, an impact across our entire risk landscape. COVID-19 has disrupted the global economy and financial markets, business operations, and consumer behavior and confidence. Large scale disruption in the United States economy has caused several industries to be largely non-operational for significant periods of time through state and federal mandated, voluntary and recommended shutdowns in an effort to contain the spread of COVID-19. While all states have been impacted by COVID-19, certain geographic regions have been disproportionately impacted either through the spread of the virus or the severity of the mitigation steps taken to control its spread. In addition, the pandemic has resulted in the temporary or permanent closures of many businesses and has given way to the institution of social distancing and other requirements in most states and communities in the United States. Although certain states and the District of Columbia had begun the process of easing their respective restrictions on individuals and businesses, there is material variation in the requirements to lift and reimpose restrictions and the pace at which those restrictions are lifted and reimposed by state and between jurisdictions within a state. In many jurisdictions, increases in new cases of COVID-19 have led to reinstatement of restrictions on individuals and businesses. In addition, as economic activity in the United States slowed further in the second quarter of 2020, unemployment remained elevated. The unemployment rate decreased to 7.9% in September 2020 compared to 14.7% in April 2020, as the United States economy continued to add jobs lost at the height of the pandemic. However, over 12.6 million American workers were still unemployed through September 2020 and underemployment is likely to remain high for an extended period of time. Although the United States economy showed signs of recovery from COVID-19 reflecting GDP growth of 33.1% in the third quarter of 2020, it remained in recessionary conditions with a forecasted contraction for the full year of 2020. It is too early to determine if GDP will continue to grow in the fourth quarter of 2020 given the virus re-emergence and the potential for further actions to be taken to mitigate the spread. Efforts by the United States federal government through fiscal stimulus packages helped contribute to this recovery. However, political gridlock has added uncertainty to the timing of future stimulus measures. As a result, our business has experienced increases in delinquent loans and PMIERs required assets. In addition, mortgage interest rates have continued to fall, leading to high levels of refinance volume and declines in persistency rates.
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We have taken steps to mitigate some of the risks associated with COVID-19. However, we are currently unable to estimate the magnitude of the impact that the pandemic will ultimately have on our business, results of operations and financial condition. While the impact of the developing COVID-19 pandemic is difficult to predict, the related outcomes and impact on our business will depend on the spread and duration of the pandemic, including the duration of any resurgences of COVID-19, the timing and successful rollout of vaccines, regulatory and government actions to support housing and the economy, social distancing, the need to reimpose restrictions and other spread mitigating actions, and the shape of the economic recovery. We are continuing to monitor COVID-19 developments, regulatory and government actions including the impact of the CARES Act and programs announced by the GSEs, and the potential financial impacts on our business. To date, we have aligned our business with the temporary origination and servicing guidelines announced by the GSEs and activated our business continuity program by transitioning to a work-from-home virtual workforce, which we expect to maintain until at least June 1, 2021.
We expect that COVID-19 and measures taken to reduce its spread will continue to pervasively impact our business, subjecting us to the following risks:
•The pandemic has resulted in a material increase in new defaults as borrowers fail to make timely payments on their mortgages, primarily as a result of unemployment and mortgage forbearance programs that allow borrowers to defer mortgage payments. This may impact our business’ ability to remain compliant with the PMIERs financial requirements. We experienced primary new delinquencies of 73,151 during the first nine months of 2020 of which 16,664 occurred in the third quarter of 2020. The primary delinquency rate, which includes both new and existing delinquencies, was 5.44% as of September 30, 2020 compared to 1.89% as of September 30, 2019. Approximately 75% of our primary new delinquencies in the third quarter of 2020 were subject to a forbearance plan. Of the total number of loans in forbearance, 37% of the borrowers were still making payments, while 63% were reported as delinquent as of September 30, 2020.
•The pandemic could place a significant strain on the operations and financial condition of mortgage servicers, which could disrupt the servicing or servicing transfers of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies or result in servicers failing to timely remit premiums and appropriately report the status of loans, including whether the loans are subject to a COVID-19-related forbearance program.
•We could receive fewer mortgage insurance premiums as a result of loans going into default or be unable to cancel insurance coverage for nonpayment of premiums due to state moratoriums that temporarily suspend such actions by insurers.
•As a result of COVID-19-related relief programs, many loans in our delinquency inventory have entered forbearance plans and we anticipate that defaults related to the pandemic, if not cured or otherwise substantially mitigated, could remain in our defaulted loan inventory for a protracted period of time, potentially resulting in an increased number of claims and higher levels of claim severity for loans that ultimately result in a claim. Historically, forbearance plans such as those put in place as a result of COVID-19 have reduced the incidence of our losses on affected loans. However, given the uncertainty around the long-term impact of COVID-19, it is difficult to predict whether a loan’s delinquency will result in a cure or claim when its forbearance plan ends. The severity of losses associated with loans whose delinquencies do not cure will depend on economic conditions at that time and our current estimates about the number of delinquencies for which we will receive claims, and the amount, or severity, of each claim, could increase or decrease.
•The extended duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, the resurgence of cases of the disease and the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread could lead to pressure on home prices in addition to elevated unemployment, which could cause additional new delinquencies, as well as potentially result in increased claims and higher levels of claim severity.
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•The GSEs’ business practices and policies have changed in response to COVID-19, with a shift in their primary objectives to supporting borrowers impacted by the pandemic and protecting the ongoing functioning of the United States housing finance system. As the situation continues to evolve, the actions of the FHFA and the GSEs in response to COVID-19 are likely to continue to significantly impact the United States housing finance system. These actions may include additional PMIERs capital requirements or other material restrictions on us. Because private mortgage insurance is an important component of this system, these actions (as well as other governmental actions in response to the pandemic) have had, and may continue to have, an adverse impact on our mortgage insurance operations and performance.
•The number of home purchases or mortgage refinancings may be materially affected by the impact of the pandemic on general economic conditions, including the unemployment rate and the availability of credit for mortgage loans. In addition, public and private sector initiatives to reduce the transmission of COVID-19, such as the imposition of restrictions on business activities, may affect the number of new mortgages available for us to insure as real estate markets confront challenges in the mortgage origination and home sale process created by social distancing and other measures. In addition, while originations remained elevated through the first, second and third quarters of 2020 and are expected to remain strong in the remainder of 2020, higher unemployment could reduce the volume of mortgage originations, the need for mortgage insurance and have an adverse effect on home prices, all of which would result in a significant adverse impact to our business, results of operations and financial condition. Social distancing and other measures may also lower home sales and new home constructions, which could result in a significant adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Any significant adverse impact to our business, results of operations and financial condition could lead to lower credit ratings and impaired capital, both of which could hinder our businesses from offering their products, preclude them from returning capital to our Parent and our holding company, and thereby harm our liquidity.
•The models, assumptions and estimates we use to establish loss reserves and claim rates may not be accurate, especially in the event of an extended economic downturn or a period of extreme market volatility and uncertainty such as we are currently experiencing due to COVID-19. For example, the ultimate cure rate for loan defaults resulting from the pandemic may be lower than we have previously experienced in the context of other FEMA-declared emergencies and lower than our expectations. Consequently, the ultimate claim rate may be higher than our expectations.
•Adverse impacts on capital, credit and reinsurance market conditions, which may limit our ability to issue MILNs or purchase reinsurance on favorable terms or at all, or access traditional financing methods. Such adverse impacts may increase our cost of capital and affect our ability to meet liquidity needs.
•The rating agencies continually review the financial strength ratings assigned to us, our primary operating subsidiary, GMICO, and our Parent, and the ratings are subject to change. COVID-19 and its impact on our financial condition and results of operations could cause one or more of the rating agencies to downgrade the ratings assigned to one or more of us, GMICO, and our Parent.
•While vaccines for COVID-19 are being, and have been, developed and distributed, there is no guarantee that any such vaccine will be effective, work as expected or be made available widely or will be accepted on a significant scale and in a timely manner.
Ultimately, the impact of COVID-19 on our business will depend on, among other things: the extent and duration of the pandemic, the severity of the disease and the number of people infected with the virus and effectiveness and successful rollout of vaccines; the resurgence of cases of the disease and the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread; the effects on the economy of the pandemic and of the measures taken by governmental authorities and other third parties restricting day-to-day life and
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the length of time that such measures remain in place; governmental and private party programs implemented to assist new and existing borrowers, including programs and policies instituted by the GSEs to assist borrowers experiencing a COVID-19- related hardship such as forbearance plans and suspensions of foreclosure and evictions; and the impact on the mortgage origination market. The level of disruption, the economic downturn, the potential global recession, and the far-reaching effects of COVID-19 could negatively affect our investment portfolio and cause the harms to our business to persist for long periods of time. COVID-19 could also disrupt medical and financial services and has resulted in us practicing social distancing with our employees through office closures, all of which could disrupt our normal business operations. Due to the unprecedented and rapidly changing social and economic impacts associated with COVID-19 on the United States and global economies generally, and in particular on the United States housing, real estate and housing finance markets, there is significant uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact on our business, business prospects, results of operations and financial condition and our estimates or predictions regarding such impact may be materially wrong.
If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In furtherance of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s respective charter requirements, each GSE adopted PMIERs effective December 31, 2015. On September 27, 2018, the GSEs issued a revised version of the PMIERs, which became effective March 31, 2019. On June 29, 2020, the GSEs issued guidance amending PMIERs further, in light of COVID-19, effective June 30, 2020 (the “PMIERs Amendment”). In September 2020, the GSEs issued an amended and restated version of the PMIERs Amendment that clarifies Section I (Risk-Based Required Asset Amount Factors), which became effective on June 30, 2020, and includes a new Section V (Delinquency Reporting), which became effective on December 31, 2020. On December 4, 2020, the GSEs issued an amended and restated version of the PMIERs Amendment that revised and replaced the version issued in September 2020. The December 4, 2020 version extended the application of reduced PMIERs capital factors to each non-performing loan that has an initial missed payment occurring on or after March 1, 2020 and prior to April 1, 2021 and capital preservation period from March 31, 2021 to June 30, 2021.
The PMIERs include financial requirements for mortgage insurers under which a mortgage insurer’s “Available Assets” (which are generally only the most liquid assets of an insurer) must meet or exceed “Minimum Required Assets” (which are based on an insurer’s RIF and are calculated from tables of factors with several risk dimensions and are subject to a floor amount) and otherwise generally establish when a mortgage insurer is qualified to issue coverage that will be acceptable to the respective GSE for acquisition of Low-Down Payment Loans.
The amount of capital that GMICO may be required to maintain in the future, the “Minimum Required Assets” as defined in PMIERs, and operate our business is dependent upon, among other things: (i) the way PMIERs are applied and interpreted by the GSEs and the FHFA as and after they are implemented; (ii) the future performance of the global economy, including the housing market, and unexpected economic conditions that arise from pandemics, such as COVID-19; (iii) our generation of earnings in our business, “Available Assets” and “Minimum Required Assets,” reducing RIF and reducing delinquencies as anticipated, and writing anticipated amounts and types of new mortgage insurance business; and (iv) our overall financial performance, capital and liquidity levels. Depending on our actual experience, the amount of capital required under PMIERs may be higher than currently anticipated. In the absence of a premium increase for new business, if we hold more capital relative to insured loans, our returns will be lower. We may be unable to increase premium rates for various reasons, principally due to competition. Our inability, on the other hand, to increase the capital as required in the anticipated timeframes and on the anticipated terms, and to realize the anticipated benefits, could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition. More particularly, our ability to continue to meet
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the PMIERs financial requirements and maintain a prudent amount of capital in excess of those requirements, given the dynamic nature of asset valuations and requirement changes over time, is dependent upon, among other things: (i) our ability to complete CRT transactions on our anticipated terms and timetable, which, as applicable, are subject to market conditions, third-party approvals and other actions (including approval by regulators and the GSEs), and other factors that are outside of our control and (ii) our ability to contribute holding company cash or other sources of capital to satisfy the portion of the financial requirements that are not satisfied through these transactions. See “—CRT transactions may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses.” The GSEs may amend or waive PMIERs at their discretion, and also have broad discretion to interpret PMIERs, which could impact the calculation of our “Available Assets” and/or “Minimum Required Assets.”
The PMIERs Amendment implemented both permanent and temporary revisions to PMIERs. For loans that became non-performing due to a COVID-19 hardship, PMIERs was temporarily amended with respect to each non-performing loan that (i) has an initial missed payment occurring on or after March 1, 2020 and prior to April 1, 2021 or (ii) is subject to a forbearance plan granted in response to a COVID-19 hardship, the terms of which are materially consistent with terms of forbearance plans offered by the GSEs. The risk-based required asset amount factor for the non-performing loan will be the greater of (a) the applicable risk-based required asset amount factor for a performing loan were it not delinquent, and (b) the product of a 0.30 multiplier and the applicable risk-based required asset amount factor for a non-performing loan. In the case of (i), absent the loan being subject to a forbearance plan described in (ii) above, the 0.30 multiplier will be applicable for no longer than three calendar months beginning with the month in which the loan became a non-performing loan due to having missed two monthly payments. Loans subject to a forbearance plan described in (ii) above include those that are either in a repayment plan or loan modification trial period following the forbearance plan unless reported to the approved insurer that the loan is no longer in such forbearance plan, repayment plan, or loan modification trial period. The PMIERs Amendment also imposes temporary capital preservation provisions through June 30, 2021, that require an approved insurer to obtain prior written GSE approval before paying any dividends, pledging or transferring assets to an affiliate or entering into any new, or altering any existing, arrangements under tax sharing and intercompany expense-sharing agreements, even if such insurer has a surplus of available assets. Therefore, the PMIERs Amendment may restrict or prevent GMICO from paying us dividends. See “—Risks Relating to Our Business—We are a holding company, and our only material assets are our equity interests in our subsidiaries. As a consequence, we depend on the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends and make other payments and distributions to us in order to meet our obligations” and “Regulation—Agency Qualification Requirements.” It is unclear what, if any, further actions the GSEs may take in the event COVID-19 hardships continue through 2020 and into 2021. If the temporary provisions of the PMIERs Amendment are not extended to include new delinquencies occurring on or after April 1, 2021, or borrower forbearance plans are not extended beyond twelve months, it could have a material effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The PMIERs Amendment additionally imposes permanent revisions to the risk-based required asset amount factor for non-performing loans for properties located in future FEMA-Declared Major Disaster Areas eligible for individual assistance. See “—If the models used in our business are inaccurate or there are differences and/or variability in loss development compared to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
Our assessment of PMIERs compliance is based on a number of factors, including our understanding of the GSEs’ interpretation of the PMIERs financial requirements. Although we believe we have sufficient capital as required under PMIERs and we remain an approved insurer, there can be no assurance these conditions will continue. The GSEs require our mortgage insurance subsidiaries to maintain a maximum statutory RTC ratio of 18:1 or they reserve the right to reevaluate the amount of PMIERs credit for reinsurance indicated in their approval letters. There can be no assurance we will continue to meet the conditions contained in the GSE letters approving credit for reinsurance against PMIERs financial requirements. Freddie Mac has also imposed additional requirements on our option to commute these
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reinsurance agreements. Both GSEs reserved the right to periodically review the reinsurance transactions for treatment under PMIERs. If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions (as defined herein) and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Additionally, compliance with PMIERs requires us to seek the GSEs’ prior approval before taking many actions, including implementing certain new products or services, entering into inter-company agreements among others and, in response to COVID-19, at least through June 30, 2021, paying any dividends, pledging or transferring assets to an affiliate. PMIERs’ prior approval requirements could prohibit, materially modify or delay us in our intended course of action. For example, in connection with the AXA Settlement (as defined herein), our Parent has pledged 19.9% of our common stock held by GHI to secure the Promissory Note (as defined herein). If our Parent defaulted on its covenants or other obligations under the Promissory Note (as defined herein) and AXA S.A. (“AXA”) desired to foreclose on such pledge, in addition to AXA obtaining NCDOI approval for the transfer, we would need to obtain GSE approval prior to the transfer of any shares under the Promissory Note (as defined herein). See “Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—Our Parent’s indebtedness and potential liquidity constraints may negatively affect us” and “Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—The AXA Settlement may negatively affect our ability to finance our business with additional debt, equity or other strategic transactions.” Further, the GSEs may modify or change their interpretation of terms they require us to include in our mortgage insurance coverage for loans purchased by them, requiring us to modify our terms of coverage or operational procedures to remain an approved insurer, and such changes could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition. It is possible the GSEs could, in their own discretion, require additional limitations and/or conditions on certain of our activities and practices that are not currently in the PMIERs for us to remain an approved insurer.
In September 2020, subsequent to the issuance of our $750 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes due 2025 (the “2025 Senior Notes”), the GSEs imposed certain restrictions (the “GSE Restrictions”) with respect to capital on our business. These restrictions will remain in effect until the later of six quarters or until the following collective conditions (the “GSE Conditions”) are met: (i) approval of GMICO’s plan to secure additional capital, if needed, (ii) GMICO obtains “BBB+”/“Baa1” (or higher) rating from Standard & Poor’s Financial Services, LLC (“Standard & Poor’s”), Moody’s Investor Service, Inc. (“Moody’s”) or Fitch Ratings, Inc. (“Fitch”) for two consecutive quarters and (iii) our Parent achieves certain financial metrics. Prior to the satisfaction of the GSE Conditions, the GSE Restrictions require (a) GMICO to maintain 115% of PMIERs Minimum Required Assets through 2021, 120% during 2022 and 125% thereafter, (b) the Company to retain $300 million of its holding company cash that can be drawn down exclusively for Company debt service or to contribute to GMICO to meet its regulatory capital needs including PMIERs and (c) prior written approval must be received from the GSEs before any additional debt issuance by either GMICO or the Company. We distributed $436 million of the net proceeds from the 2025 Senior Notes to GHI at the closing of the offering of our 2025 Senior Notes. Our Parent has advised us that, pursuant to the AXA Settlement, GHI intends to repay or reduce upcoming debt maturities in an amount equal to the net proceeds of the offering of our 2025 Senior Notes (less certain amounts held back to fund interest payments and offering costs and expenses). In addition, as a result of the requirements set forth in the GSE Restrictions, additional capital may need to be raised if our Parent fails to satisfy certain financial metrics included in the GSE Restrictions.
The GSE Restrictions govern the period prior to the close of the possible China Oceanwide transaction. The GSEs issued separate conditions and restrictions in September 2020, which place identical restrictions on our business, if the China Oceanwide transaction closes (the “Oceanwide Restrictions”). Specifically, the Oceanwide Restrictions must remain in effect until the later of: (i) six quarters after the China Oceanwide transaction closes, (ii) the conditions in our Parent’s mitigation
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agreement with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS”) are met and certified, or (iii) until the GSE Conditions imposed in connection with the GSE Restrictions are met. Prior to the satisfaction of these conditions, the Oceanwide Restrictions contain the same restrictions as the aforementioned GSE Restrictions. However, if China Oceanwide remits the $1.5 billion contribution to our Parent in connection with its capital investment plan, GMHI can distribute the $300 million of holding company cash held for debt service and GMICO capital needs less 13.5% of GMHI’s then current outstanding debt. Until the GSE Conditions imposed in connection with the GSE Restrictions are met, GMHI’s liquidity must not fall below 13.5% of its outstanding debt.
Additional requirements or conditions imposed by the GSEs could limit our operating flexibility and the areas in which we may write new business and may adversely impact our competitive position and our business, the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends and our ability to pay down debts. See “Regulation—Agency Qualification Requirements” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Trends and Conditions.”
A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience.
Losses in our mortgage insurance business generally result from events, such as a borrower’s reduction of income, unemployment, underemployment, divorce, illness, inability to manage credit, or a change in interest rate levels or home values, that reduce a borrower’s willingness or ability to continue to make mortgage payments. Rising unemployment rates and deteriorations in economic conditions for extended periods of time, including as a result of COVID-19, across the United States or in specific regional economies, generally increase the likelihood of borrower defaults. See “—The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted our business, and its ultimate impact on our business and financial results will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the pandemic, the resurgence of cases of the disease, the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread, the timing and successful rollout of vaccines and other actions taken by governmental authorities in response to the pandemic.” An increase in interest rates typically leads to higher monthly payments for borrowers with existing adjustable rate mortgages (“ARMs”) and could materially impact the cost and availability of refinance options for borrowers. See “—Interest rates and changes in rates could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.” A decline in home values typically makes it more difficult for borrowers to sell or refinance their homes, generally increasing the likelihood of a default followed by a claim if borrowers experience job losses or other life events that reduce their incomes or increase their expenses. In addition, declines in home values may also decrease the willingness of borrowers with sufficient resources to make mortgage payments when their mortgage balances exceed the values of their homes. Declines in home values typically increase the severity of any claims we may pay. Any of these events may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Housing values could also decline due to specific trends that would affect the housing and mortgage markets, such as decreased demand for homes, including as a result of social distancing and other measures put in place as a result of COVID-19, changes in homebuyers’ expectations for potential future home value appreciation, increased restrictions or costs for obtaining mortgage credit due to tightened underwriting standards, tax policy, regulatory developments, higher interest rates and customers’ liquidity issues. Declining housing values may impact the effectiveness of our loss management programs, eroding the value of mortgage collateral and reducing the likelihood that properties with defaulted mortgages can be sold for an amount sufficient to offset unpaid principal and interest losses.
The amount of the loss we suffer, if any, depends in part on whether the home of a borrower who defaults on a mortgage can be sold for an amount that will cover the unpaid principal balance, interest and the expenses of the sale. In previous economic slowdowns in the United States, we experienced a pronounced weakness in the housing market, as well as declines in home prices. These economic slowdowns and the resulting impact on the housing market drove historic levels of delinquencies. Any delays in foreclosure processes, including foreclosure moratoriums imposed by state and local
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governments due to COVID-19, could cause our losses to increase as expenses accrue for longer periods or if the value of foreclosed homes further decline during such delays. If we experience an increase in the number or the cost of delinquencies that are higher than expected, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
We establish loss reserves when we are notified that an insured loan is in default, based on management’s estimate of claim rates and claim sizes, which are subject to uncertainties and are based on assumptions about certain estimation parameters that may be volatile. As a result, the actual claim payments we make may materially differ from the amount of our corresponding loss reserves.
Our practice, consistent with industry practice and statutory accounting principles (“SAP”) applicable to insurance companies, is to establish loss reserves in our consolidated GAAP financial statements based on claim rates and severity for loans that servicers have reported to us as being in default, which is typically after the second missed payment. We also establish incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves for estimated losses incurred on loans in default that have not yet been reported to us by the servicers.
The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires significant judgment and numerous assumptions by management, and changes in assumptions or deviations of actual experience for assumptions can have material impacts on our loss reserves and net income (loss). Thus, our loss estimates may vary widely from quarter to quarter. We establish loss reserves using our best estimates of claim rates and severity to estimate the ultimate losses on loans reported to us as being in default as of the end of each reporting period. The sources of uncertainty affecting the estimates are numerous and include both internal and external factors. Internal factors include, but are not limited to, changes in the mix of exposures, loss mitigation activities and claim settlement practices. Significant external factors include changes in general economic conditions, including home prices, unemployment/underemployment, interest rates, tax policy, credit availability, government housing policies, government and GSE loss mitigation and mortgage forbearance programs, state foreclosure timelines, GSE and state foreclosure moratoriums and types of mortgage products. Because our assumptions relate to these factors that are not known in advance, change over time, are difficult to accurately predict and are inherently uncertain, we cannot determine with precision the ultimate amounts we will pay for actual claims or the timing of those payments. Even in a stable economic environment, the actual claim payments we make may be substantially different and even materially exceed the amount of our corresponding loss reserves for such claims. Small changes in assumptions or small deviations of actual experience from assumptions can have, and in the past have had, material impacts on our reserves, results of operations and financial condition.
In addition, sudden and/or unexpected deterioration of economic conditions, including as a result of COVID-19, may cause our estimates of loss reserves to be materially understated. Our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity could be adversely impacted if, and to the extent, our actual losses are greater than our loss and IBNR reserves.
As of September 30, 2020, we had established loss reserves and reported losses incurred for 49,692 primary loans in our delinquency inventory. This significant increase in loss reserves as compared to pre-COVID time periods was driven mostly by higher new delinquencies from borrower forbearance due to COVID-19. We expect a large portion of these delinquencies to cure before becoming an active claim; however, reserves recorded related to borrower forbearance have a high degree of estimation. Therefore, it is possible we could have a higher number of claims related to these loss reserves if they do not cure as we expect. We expect that delinquencies will remain volatile and could increase or decrease depending on the level of economic recovery from COVID-19, including as a result of the continued elevated level of unemployment associated with changes in consumer behavior and initiatives intended to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. As a result, we expect our losses incurred and loss reserves to be volatile in future periods. The impact of COVID-19 on the number of delinquencies, our losses incurred and loss reserves will be influenced by various factors, including those discussed in our risk factor titled “—The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted our business, and its ultimate impact on our business and
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financial results will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the pandemic, the resurgence of cases of the disease, the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread, the timing and successful rollout of vaccines and other actions taken by governmental authorities in response to the pandemic.”
Further, consistent with industry practice, our reserving method does not take account of losses that could occur from insured loans that are not in default. Thus, future potential losses that may develop from loans not currently in default are not reflected in our financial statements, except in the case where we are required to establish a premium deficiency reserve. As a result, future losses on loans that are not currently in default may have a material impact on our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity if, and when, such losses emerge.
We regularly review our reserves and associated assumptions as part of our ongoing assessment of our business performance and risks. If we conclude that our reserves are insufficient to cover actual or expected claim payments as a result of changes in experience, assumptions or otherwise, we would be required to increase our reserves and incur charges in the period in which we make the determination. The amounts of such increases may be significant and this could materially adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. For additional information on reserves, including the financial impact of some of these risks, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Liquidity and Capital Resources” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—New Accounting Standards.”
If the models used in our business are inaccurate or there are differences and/or variability in loss development compared to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We employ models to, among other uses, price our mortgage insurance products, calculate reserves, value assets and generate projections used to estimate future pre-tax income, as well as to evaluate risk, determine internal capital requirements and perform stress testing. These models rely on estimates and projections that are inherently uncertain, may use data and/or assumptions that do not adequately reflect recent experience and relevant industry data, and may not operate as intended. The models require accurate data, including financial statements, credit reports or other financial information, and reliance on such data could result in unexpected losses, reputational damage or other effects that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, if any of our models contain programming or other errors, are ineffective, use data provided by third parties that is incorrect, or if we are unable to obtain relevant data from third parties, our processes could be negatively affected. The models may prove to be less predictive than we expect for a variety of reasons, including economic conditions that develop differently than we forecast, unexpected economic and unemployment conditions that arise from pandemics such as COVID-19, changes in the law or in the PMIERs, issues arising in the construction, implementation, interpretation or use of the models or other programs, the use of inaccurate assumptions or use of short-term financial metrics that do not reveal long-term trends. The global nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in FEMA-declared emergencies in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, is unprecedented and results in a lack of comparable data inputs for our models. As a result, our expectations based on our models may vary from our experiences in the context of other historical FEMA-declared emergencies that have been more localized. For example, the ultimate cure rate for loan defaults resulting from the pandemic may be lower than we have previously experienced in the context of other FEMA-declared emergencies and lower than our expectations. See “—The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted our business, and its ultimate impact on our business and financial results will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the pandemic, the resurgence of cases of the disease, the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread, the timing and successful rollout of vaccines and other actions taken by governmental authorities in response to the pandemic.” The limitations of our models may be material and could lead us to make wrong or sub-optimal decisions in aspects of our business, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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In addition, from time to time we seek to improve our actuarial and financial models, and the conversion process may result in material changes to assumptions and financial results. The models we employ are complex, which increases our risk of error in their design, implementation or use. The associated input data, assumptions and calculations, and the controls we have in place to mitigate these risks may not be effective in all cases. The risks related to our models often increase when we change assumptions and/or methodologies, add or change modeling platforms, or implement model changes under time constraints. These risks are exacerbated when the process for assumption changes strains our overall governance and timing around our financial reporting. We intend to continue developing our modeling capabilities. During or after the implementation of these enhancements, we may discover errors or other deficiencies in existing models, assumptions and/or methodologies. For example, in the future we may either use additional, more granular information we expect to receive through enhancements in our reserving model or we may employ more simplified reserving approaches, and either approach may cause us to refine or otherwise change existing assumptions and/or methodologies and thus associated product pricing and reserve levels, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Competition within the mortgage insurance industry could result in the loss of market share, loss of customers, lower premiums, wider credit guidelines and other changes that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The United States private mortgage insurance industry is highly competitive. We believe the principal competitive factors in the sale of our products are price, reputation, customer relationships, financial strength ratings and service.
There are currently six active mortgage insurers in the United States, including us. Competition on price remains highly competitive. We monitor various competitive, risk and economic factors while seeking to balance both profitability and market share considerations in developing our pricing strategies. We have at times and may again in the future reduce certain of our rates, which will reduce and has reduced our premium yield (net premiums earned divided by the average IIF) over time as older mortgage insurance coverage with higher premium rates run off and new mortgage insurance coverage with lower premium rates are written. In addition, as a result of the current macroeconomic environment and the COVID-19 pandemic, we have implemented pricing changes that we believe align our risk and return profile. See “—The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted our business, and its ultimate impact on our business and financial results will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the pandemic, the resurgence of cases of the disease, the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread, the timing and successful rollout of vaccines and other actions taken by governmental authorities in response to the pandemic.”
By mid-2019, the use of proprietary risk-based pricing models became widespread. As opposed to traditional rate card pricing, mortgage insurance premium rates in these risk-based plans are visible only to customers and cannot be seen by competitors. Mortgage insurance companies may view this lack of transparency as a means to gain market share by lowering price. Lack of pricing transparency could cause other mortgage insurance companies to respond aggressively and cause further lowering of premiums. However, risk-based plans are designed to also allow mortgage insurers to price risk more effectively and provide the ability to manage the credit risk and geographic makeup of their NIW.
In addition, not all of our mortgage insurance products have the same return on capital profile. To the extent that some of our competitors are willing to set lower pricing and accept lower returns than we find acceptable, we may lose business opportunities, and this may affect our overall business relationship with certain customers. If we, in response to competitor actions, lower pricing on these products, we will experience a similar reduction in returns on capital. Depending upon the degree to which we undertake or match such pricing practices, there may be a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
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One or more of our competitors may seek to capture increased market share by reducing pricing, offering alternative coverage and product options, loosening their underwriting guidelines or relaxing risk management policies, any of which could improve their competitive positions in the industry and negatively impact our ability to achieve our business goals. Specifically, such competitive moves could result in a loss of customers, require us to lower premiums or adopt riskier credit guidelines in order to remain competitive, or implement other changes that could lower our revenues, increase the risk of the loans we insure or increase our expenses. If we are unable to compete effectively against our competitors and attract and retain our target customers, our revenue may be adversely impacted, which could adversely impact our financial condition, results of operations and ability to grow our business.
Changes to the role of the GSEs or to the charters or business practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The requirements and practices of the GSEs impact the operating results and financial performance of GSE-approved insurers, including us. Changes in the charters or business practices of either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac could materially reduce the number of mortgages they purchase that are insured by us and consequently diminish our business valuation. The GSEs could be directed to make such changes by the FHFA, which was appointed as their conservator in September 2008 and has the authority to control and direct the operations of the GSEs.
With the GSEs in a prolonged conservatorship, there has been ongoing debate over the future role and purpose of the GSEs in the United States housing market. Congress may legislate, or the administration may implement through administrative reform, structural and other changes to the GSEs and the functioning of the secondary mortgage market. Since 2011, there have been numerous legislative proposals intended to incrementally scale back the GSEs (such as a statutory mandate for the GSEs to transfer mortgage credit risk to the private sector) or to completely reform the United States housing finance system. Congress, however, has not enacted any legislation to date. The proposals vary as to the government’s role in the housing market, and more specifically, with regard to the existence of an explicit or implicit government guarantee.
Recently there has been an increased focus on and discussion of administrative reform independent of legislative action. Between FHFA and the United States Treasury Department (the “Treasury Department”), they possess significant capacity to effect administrative GSE reforms. On September 5, 2019, the Treasury Department released its Housing Reform Plan that included a compilation of legislative and administrative recommendations for reforms to achieve the goals of (i) ending the conservatorships of the GSEs, (ii) advancing competition in the housing finance market, (iii) setting regulations for the GSEs that provide for their safety and soundness and limit their risk to the financial stability of the United States and (iv) providing proper compensation to the United States government for any explicit or implicit support it provides to the GSEs. Additionally, the Director of the FHFA has publicly stated his priority for exiting the GSEs from conservatorship. In conjunction with preparing to release the GSEs from conservatorship, on January 14, 2021, the FHFA and the Treasury Department amended the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (“PSPAs”) that the GSEs have with the Treasury Department. The PSPA amendments include additional restrictions on the loans purchased by the GSEs, including on certain categories of single-family loans, which could cause our mortgage insurance business to decline. Under these PSPA amendments, the FHFA and the Treasury Department have agreed not to seek to terminate the GSEs from conservatorship unless, following the resolution of all litigation pending in connection with the conservatorship or the Treasury Department’s net worth sweep, the GSEs maintain a specified level of common equity tier 1 capital. While we do not believe that such restrictions will significantly impact the GSEs’ origination volume or our mortgage insurance business, additional modifications to the PSPAs or a consent order that may place continuing restrictions on the GSEs post conservatorship remain possible. Also on January 14, 2021, the Treasury Department released a Blueprint on Next Steps for GSE Reform that generally reiterated its commitment to the goals in the Housing Reform Plan and to pursue additional reforms to facilitate an exit from conservatorship, including (i) building sufficient equity capital to facilitate the GSEs’ ability to operate through a severe downturn, (ii)
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determining the optimal GSE capital structure, (iii) setting a commitment fee for ongoing support post-conservatorship, (iv) establishing appropriate pricing oversight and (v) reducing the market concentration of the GSEs. As part of the process to potentially end the conservatorships of the GSEs, on December 17, 2020, the FHFA promulgated a final rule imposing a new capital framework on the GSEs, including risk-based and leverage capital requirements and capital buffers in excess of regulatory minimums that can be drawn down in periods of financial stress (the “Enterprise Capital Framework”). The Enterprise Capital Framework will be effective as of February 16, 2021, with the exception of the requirement for each GSE to maintain the greater of the regulatory capital required under the standard approach or an advanced approach, which will be effective on the later of (i) January 1, 2025 and (ii) any later compliance date provided by a transition order applicable to such GSE. The GSEs will not be subject to any requirement under the Enterprise Capital Framework until after the termination of the conservatorship of such GSE. The Enterprise Capital Framework requires the GSEs to hold significantly higher amounts of capital than under current requirements. The higher amounts of required capital may result in an increase in the guarantee fees charged by the GSEs and therefore higher costs to borrowers for GSE loans, which could shift the market away from the GSEs and result in a smaller market for private mortgage insurance. The Enterprise Capital Framework also allows the GSEs to differentiate between counterparties based on their internal assessment of a counterparty’s financial strength and access to capital, which may lead the GSEs to mitigate their exposure to counterparties they deem weaker than their peers. Additionally, the Supreme Court of the United States heard challenges on December 9, 2020 to the FHFA’s single director structure and the Treasury Department’s net worth sweep under the PSPA, with decisions not likely until the spring 2021 term, which could impact the federal government’s efforts to reform the federal housing system, including exiting the GSEs from conservatorship. On January 20, 2021, the White House issued a memorandum establishing a plan for managing the federal regulatory process which included, among other things, a request that the heads of executive departments and agencies postpone the effective dates of newly-issued rules for sixty days. It is difficult to predict whether and how such memorandum will be implemented and how it will impact the Enterprise Capital Framework as it may be subject to further rulemaking, regulatory interpretation and guidance with the change in Administration, and its full impact may not be known with certainty for some time.
The adoption of any GSE reform, whether through legislation or administrative action, could impact the current role of private mortgage insurance as credit enhancement, including its reduction or elimination, which would have an adverse effect on our business, revenue, results of operations and financial condition. At present, it is uncertain what role private capital, including mortgage insurance, will play in the United States residential housing finance system in the future or the impact any changes to that system could have on our business. Any changes to the charters or statutory authorities of the GSEs would require congressional action to implement. Passage and timing of any comprehensive GSE reform or incremental change (legislative or administrative) is uncertain, making the actual impact on us and our industry difficult to predict. Any such changes that come to pass could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In recent years, the FHFA has set goals for the GSEs to transfer significant portions of the GSEs’ mortgage credit risk to the private sector. This mandate builds upon the goals set in each of the last five years for the GSEs to increase the role of private capital by experimenting with different forms of transactions and structures. We have participated in these CRT programs developed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on a limited basis. In 2018, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced the launch of limited pilot programs, Integrated Mortgage Insurance (“IMAGIN”) and Enterprise Paid Mortgage Insurance (“EPMI”), respectively, as alternative ways for lenders to sell to the GSEs loans with LTV ratios greater than 80%. These investor-paid mortgage insurance programs, in which insurance is acquired directly by each GSE, have many of the same features and represent an alternative to traditional private mortgage insurance products that are provided to individual lenders. Participants in IMAGIN and EPMI are not subject to compliance with the current PMIERs, a disparity that may create a competitive disadvantage for private mortgage insurers if these pilot programs are expanded. To the extent these credit risk products evolve in a manner that displaces primary mortgage insurance coverage, the amount of insurance we write may be reduced. It is difficult to predict the impact of alternative CRT products, if any, that are
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developed to meet the goals established by the FHFA. In addition, the Enterprise Capital Rule that was promulgated on December 17, 2020 may impact the CRT programs developed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and/or the role of private mortgage insurance as credit enhancement by potentially accelerating the recent diversification of the GSE’s risk transfer programs to encompass a broader array of instruments, beyond private mortgage insurance.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also possess substantial market power, which enables them to influence our business and the mortgage insurance industry in general. Although we actively monitor and develop our relationships with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a deterioration in any of these relationships, or the loss of business or opportunities for new business, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The amount of mortgage insurance we write could decline significantly if alternatives to private mortgage insurance are used or lower coverage levels of mortgage insurance are selected.
There are a variety of alternatives to private mortgage insurance that may reduce the amount of mortgage insurance we write. These alternatives include:
•originating mortgages that consist of two simultaneous loans, known as “simultaneous seconds” comprising a first mortgage with a LTV ratio of 80% and a simultaneous second mortgage for the excess portion of the loan, instead of a single mortgage with a LTV ratio of more than 80%;
•using government mortgage insurance programs;
•holding mortgages in the lenders’ own loan portfolios and self-insuring;
•using programs, such as those offered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, requiring lower mortgage insurance coverage levels;
•originating and securitizing loans in MBS whose underlying mortgages are not insured with private mortgage insurance or which are structured so that the risk of default lies with the investor; and
•using risk-sharing insurance programs, credit default swaps or similar instruments to transfer credit risk on mortgages.
The degree to which lenders or borrowers may select these alternatives now, or in the future, is difficult to predict. The performance and resiliency of the private mortgage insurance industry through COVID-19 could impact the perception of the industry and private mortgage insurance execution as the primary choice of first-loss credit protection, which could influence the popularity of alternative forms of mortgage insurance in the future. As one or more of the alternatives described above, or new alternatives that enter the market, are chosen over private mortgage insurance, our revenues could be adversely impacted. The loss of business in general or the specific loss of more profitable business could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our reliance on customer relationships could cause us to lose significant sales if one or more of those relationships terminate or are reduced.
Our business depends on our relationships with our customers, including relationships with large lending customers. Our largest customer accounted for 16% of our total NIW during 2019 and our top five customers generated 32% of our NIW during 2019. Our inability to maintain our relationship with one or more of these customers could have an adverse impact on our NIW in the future. See “—Changes in the composition of our business or undue concentration by customer, geographic region or product type may adversely affect us by increasing our exposure to adverse performance of a small segment of our overall business.” Our customers place insurance with us directly on loans they originate and indirectly through purchases of loans that already have our mortgage insurance coverage. Our relationships with our customers may influence both the amount of business they do with us directly and their willingness to
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continue to approve us as a mortgage insurance provider for loans that they purchase. Maintaining our business relationships and business volumes with our largest lending customers remains critical to the success of our business.
We cannot be certain that any loss of business from significant customers, or any single customer, would be replaced by business from other customers, existing or new. As a result of market conditions or changed regulatory requirements, our lending customers may decide to write business only with a limited number of mortgage insurers or only with certain mortgage insurers, based on their views with respect to an insurer’s pricing, service levels, underwriting guidelines, loss mitigation practices, financial strength, ratings, mechanisms of credit enhancements or other factors, including our customers’ perceptions of the strength of our Parent and its other subsidiaries. See “—Our brand, reputation and ratings could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.”
Changes in the composition of our business or undue concentration by customer, geographic region or product type may adversely affect us by increasing our exposure to adverse performance of a small segment of our overall business.
Our largest customer accounted for 16% of our total NIW during 2019. No other customer exceeded 10% of our NIW during 2019 and one customer, at 10.08%, accounted for more than 10% of our NIW during 2018 and no single customer exceeded 10% of our NIW in 2017. Additionally, no customer had earned premiums that accounted for more than 10% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018. Changes in our ability to attract and retain a diverse customer base, and avoid undue concentration by geographic region, customer or product type may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In the past, regional housing markets have experienced changes in home prices and unemployment at different rates and to different extents. In addition, certain geographic regions have experienced local recessions, falling home prices and rising unemployment based on economic conditions that did not impact, or impacted to a lesser degree, other geographic regions or the overall United States economy. See “—A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience.” Geographic concentration in our mortgage portfolio therefore increases our exposure to losses due to localized economic conditions. This risk may be exacerbated by a disproportionate impact of COVID-19 in certain regions of the country. We seek to diversify our insured loan portfolio geographically; however, customer concentration might lead to concentrations in specific regions in the United States. If we do not adequately maintain the geographic diversity of our portfolio, we could be exposed to greater losses. Also, customer concentration may adversely affect our financial condition if a significant customer chooses to increase its use of other mortgage insurers, merges with a competitor or exits the mortgage finance business, chooses alternatives to mortgage insurance, or experiences a decrease in their business. For a more detailed discussion regarding the risk of customer concentration, see “—Our reliance on customer relationships could cause us to lose significant sales if one or more of those relationships terminate or are reduced.”
Prior to COVID-19, traditional measures of credit quality, such as FICO credit score and whether a loan had a prior delinquency were most predictive of new delinquencies. Because the COVID-19 pandemic has affected a broad portion of the population, attribution analysis of second quarter and third quarter of 2020 new delinquencies revealed that additional factors rose in significance, such as a higher DTI Ratio, geographies more affected by the virus or with a higher concentration of affected industries, loan size and servicer process differences. Although we attempt to incorporate these higher expected claim rates into our models, there can be no assurance that the premiums earned and the associated investment income will be adequate to compensate for actual losses under our current underwriting requirements.
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Our risk management programs may not be effective in identifying or adequate in controlling or mitigating the risks we face.
We have developed risk management programs that include risk appetite, limits, identification, quantification, governance, policies and procedures and seek to appropriately identify, monitor, measure, control, mitigate and report the types of risks to which we are subject. We regularly review our risk management programs and work to update them on an ongoing basis to be consistent with then current best market practices. However, our risk management programs may not fully control or mitigate all the risks we face or anticipate all potential material negative events.
Many of our methods for managing certain financial risks (e.g., credit, market and insurance risks) are based on observed historical market behaviors and/or historical, statistically-based models. Historical measures may not accurately predict future exposures, which could be significantly greater than historical measures have indicated. We have also established internal risk limits based upon these historical, statistically-based models and we monitor compliance with these limits. Our internal risk limits may be insufficient and our monitoring may not detect all violations (inadvertent or otherwise) of these limits. Other risk management methods are based on our evaluation of information regarding markets, customers and customer behavior, macroeconomic and environmental conditions, pandemics such as COVID-19, catastrophic occurrences and potential changing paradigms that are publicly available or otherwise accessible to us. See “Business—Risk Management.” This collective information may not always be accurate, complete, up to date or properly considered, interpreted or evaluated in our analyses. Moreover, the models and other parts of our risk management programs we rely on in managing various aspects of our business may prove to be less predictive than we expect. See “—If the models used in our business are inaccurate or there are differences and/or variability in loss development compared to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.” The limitations of our models and other parts of our risk management programs may be material, and could lead us to make wrong or sub-optimal decisions in managing our risk and other aspects of our business, either of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.
Management of operational, legal, franchise and regulatory risks requires, among other things, methods to appropriately identify all such key risks, systems to record incidents and policies and procedures designed to mitigate, detect, record and address all such risks and occurrences. Management of technology risks requires methods to ensure our systems, processes and people are maintaining the confidentiality, availability and integrity of our information, ensuring technology is enabling our overall strategy, and our ability to comply with applicable laws and regulations. If our risk management framework does not effectively identify, measure and control our risks, we could suffer unexpected losses or be adversely affected, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We employ various strategies, including CRT transactions, which include traditional reinsurance and the issuance of MILNs, to mitigate financial risks inherent in our business and operations. Such transactions may not always be available to us, but when they are, they subject us to counterparty credit risk. The execution of these strategies also introduces operational risks and considerations. Developing effective strategies for dealing with these risks is a complex process, and no strategy can fully insulate us from those financial risks. See “—CRT transactions may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses” and “—Defaults by counterparties to our CRT transactions or defaults by us on agreements we have with these counterparties, may expose us to risks we sought to mitigate, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations.”
We may choose to retain certain levels of financial and/or non-financial risk, even when it is possible to mitigate these risks. The decision to retain certain levels of financial risk is predicated on our belief that the expected future returns that we will realize from retaining the risk, in relation to the level of risk retained, is favorable, but our expectations may be incorrect and we may incur material losses or suffer other adverse consequences that arise from the retained risk.
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Our performance is highly dependent on our ability to manage risks that arise from day-to-day business activities, including underwriting, claims processing, administration and servicing, execution of our investment strategy, actuarial estimates and calculations, financial and tax reporting and other activities, many of which are very complex. We seek to monitor and control our exposure to risks arising out of or related to these activities through a variety of internal controls, management review processes and other mechanisms. However, the occurrence of unforeseen events, such as COVID-19, or the occurrence of events of a greater magnitude than expected, including those arising from inadequate or ineffective controls, a failure in processes, procedures or systems implemented by us or a failure on the part of employees upon which we rely, may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Past or future misconduct by our employees or employees of our vendors or suppliers could result in violations of laws by us, regulatory sanctions against us and/or serious reputational, legal or financial harm to our business, and the precautions we employ to prevent and detect this activity may not be effective in all cases. Although we employ controls and procedures designed to monitor the business decisions and activities of these individuals to prevent us from engaging in inappropriate activities, excessive risk taking, fraud or security breaches, these individuals may undertake these activities or risks regardless of our controls and procedures and such controls and procedures may fail to detect all such decisions and activities. Our compensation policies and procedures are reviewed by us as part of our overall risk management program, but it is possible that such compensation policies and practices could inadvertently incentivize excessive or inappropriate risk taking. If these individuals take excessive or inappropriate risks, those risks could harm our reputation and have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The extent of the benefits we realize from loss mitigation actions or programs in the future may be limited compared to years past.
As part of our loss mitigation efforts, we periodically investigate insured loans and evaluate the related servicing to ensure compliance with applicable guidelines and to detect possible fraud or misrepresentation. As a result, we have rescinded, and may in the future rescind, coverage on loans that do not meet our guidelines. In the past, we recognized significant benefits from taking action on these investigations and evaluations under our master policies. However, the PMIERs rescission relief principles, which have been incorporated into our mortgage insurance policies since 2014, limit our rescission rights for underwriting defects, misrepresentation, and in other circumstances, such as in cases where the borrower makes a certain number of timely mortgage payments. Therefore, we may not recognize the same level of future benefits from rescission actions as we have in years prior to 2014, potentially resulting in higher losses than under our older master policies. In addition, our rescission rights and certain other rights have temporarily become more limited due to accommodations we have made in connection with COVID-19. On April 17, 2020, we announced that we will not make loans ineligible for rescission relief in certain circumstances where the failure to make payments was associated with a COVID-19-related forbearance. On September 30, 2020, GMICO entered into the COVID-19 Master Policy Alternatives, Extensions and Flexibilities Agreements with the GSEs (collectively, the “Master Policy Alternatives Agreement”), pursuant to which GMICO agreed to temporarily waive or grant alternatives, extensions and flexibilities around various requirements included in certain policies owned by the GSEs. The Master Policy Alternatives Agreement includes several provisions aimed at avoiding claim denial and cancellation of coverage resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. See “Regulation—Agency Qualification Requirements.” The mortgage finance industry (with government support) has adopted various programs to modify delinquent loans to make them more affordable to borrowers with the goal of reducing the number of foreclosures. Our master policies contain covenants that require cooperation and loss mitigation by the insured. The effect on us of a loan modification depends on re-default rates, which can be affected by factors such as changes in home values and unemployment. Our estimates of the number of loans qualifying for modification programs is based on management’s judgment as informed by past experience and current market conditions but are inherently uncertain. We cannot predict what the
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actual volume of loan modifications will be or the ultimate re-default rate, and therefore, we cannot be certain whether these efforts will provide material benefits to us.
Interest rates and changes in rates could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Declining interest rates historically have increased the rate at which borrowers refinance their existing mortgages, thereby resulting in cancellations of the mortgage insurance covering existing loans. Historically, declining interest rates have also contributed to home price appreciation, which may provide borrowers with the option of cancelling mortgage insurance coverage earlier than we anticipated when we priced that coverage. These cancellations could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, as a result of declining interest rates since the onset of COVID-19, our business has begun to experience declines in persistency rates. For example, our persistency rate was 64% as of September 30, 2020, compared to 78% as of December 31, 2019. Lower persistency rates result in reduced IIF and premiums from monthly policies, which could have a significant impact on our results of operations. The impact of COVID-19 on our business is difficult to predict and will depend on a variety of factors, such as the duration of the pandemic and the shape of economic recovery among other mitigation actions; however, it is possible that the effects of COVID-19 could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations— Trends and Conditions” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations and Key Metrics—Key Metrics.”
Rising interest rates generally reduce the volume of new mortgage originations and refinances. A decline in the volume of new or refinance mortgage originations would have an adverse effect on our NIW, which may in turn decrease our earned premiums. Rising interest rates also can increase the monthly mortgage payments for insured homeowners with ARMs that could have the effect of increasing default rates on ARM loans, thereby increasing our exposure on our mortgage insurance coverage. Higher interest rates can lead to an increase in defaults as borrowers at risk of default will find it harder to qualify for a replacement loan.
In addition, interest rate fluctuations could also have an adverse effect on the results of our investment portfolio. During periods of declining market interest rates, the interest we receive on variable interest rate investments decreases. In addition, during those periods, we reinvest the cash we receive as interest or return of principal on our investments in lower-yielding high-grade instruments or in lower-credit investment grade instruments to maintain comparable returns. Issuers of fixed-income securities may also decide to prepay their obligations in order to borrow at lower market rates, which exacerbates the risk that we have to invest the cash proceeds of these securities in lower-yielding or lower-credit investment grade instruments. During periods of increasing interest rates, market values of lower-yielding instruments will decline. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” for additional information about interest rate risk.
We may be unable to maintain or increase the capital needed in our business in a timely manner, on anticipated terms or at all, including through improved business performance, CRT transactions, securities offerings or otherwise, in each case as and when required.
We may require incremental capital to support our growth and to meet regulatory or GSE capital requirements, to comply with rating agency criteria to maintain ratings, to repay our debt and to operate and meet unexpected cash flow obligations. If we need additional capital in the future, we may not be able to fund or raise the required capital as and when required and the amount of capital required may be higher than anticipated. Additionally, as a result of the AXA Settlement (as defined herein), we may need to receive consent from AXA to retain any funds required to be raised to meet our capital needs above certain thresholds during the term of the Promissory Note (as defined herein). Our inability to fund or raise the capital required in the anticipated timeframes and on the anticipated terms, could have a material
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adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition, including causing us to reduce our business levels or be subject to a variety of regulatory actions.
As of September 30, 2020, we met the PMIERs financial and operational requirements, based in part on our entry into a series of traditional reinsurance transactions together with our MILN transactions. As of such date, we had available assets of $4,451 million against $3,377 million net required assets under PMIERs. The estimated sufficiency as of September 30, 2020 was $1,074 million or 132% above the published PMIERs requirements. PMIERs sufficiency is based on the published requirements applicable to private mortgage insurers and does not give effect to the GSE Restrictions. In addition, our PMIERs required assets as of September 30, 2020 benefited from the application of a 0.30 multiplier applied to the risk-based required asset amount factor for certain non-performing loans. The GSEs released an amendment to PMIERs, effective June 30, 2020, providing relief to non-performing loans experiencing hardship as a result of COVID-19. See “Regulation—Agency Qualification Requirements.” In order to continue to provide a prudent level of financial flexibility in connection with the current PMIERs capital requirements, and given the dynamic nature of asset and liability valuations and requirement changes over time, we expect that we will need to execute future transactions, including additional CRT transactions and other transactions with third parties to provide additional capital.
However, the implementation of any further CRT transactions or other transactions with third parties to provide additional capital depends on a number of factors, including but not limited to: market conditions, necessary third-party approvals (including approval by regulators and the GSEs) and other factors that are outside of our control. Therefore, we cannot be sure we will be able to implement successfully these actions on the timetable and terms acceptable to us or at all or achieve the anticipated benefits. We also cannot be sure we will be able to meet any additional capital requirements imposed by regulators or the GSEs. See “—CRT transactions may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses” and “—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
CRT transactions may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses.
As part of our overall risk and capital management strategy, we use CRT transactions. These transactions enable our mortgage insurance business to transfer risks in exchange for some of the associated economic benefits and, as a result, improve our PMIERs and other regulatory RTC measurements and manage risk to within our anticipated tolerance level. See “Business—Credit Risk Transfer.”
The availability and cost of CRT transactions may be impacted by conditions beyond our control, such as market conditions that result in higher rates of unemployment or a significant negative impact on the United States housing market, including those caused by COVID-19. For example, CRT transactions have been more costly to obtain following the economic downturn caused by COVID-19. In particular, the market uncertainty caused by COVID-19 has resulted in higher prices for our MILN and XOL reinsurance transactions. Accordingly, we have incurred additional expenses for CRT transactions and may not be able to obtain new transactions on acceptable terms, or at all, either of which could increase our risk and adversely affect our ability to write future business or obtain PMIERs or statutory credit for new transactions or could require us to make capital contributions to maintain regulatory capital requirements. See “—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
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Defaults by counterparties to our CRT transactions or defaults by us on agreements we have with these counterparties, may expose us to risks we sought to mitigate, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations.
Many of the CRT transactions we execute expose us to credit risk in the event of default of our counterparties or a change in collateral value. For instance, traditional reinsurance does not relieve us of our direct liability to our policyholders, even when the reinsurer is liable to us. Accordingly, we bear credit risk with respect to our reinsurers. We cannot be sure that our reinsurers will pay amounts owed to us now or in the future or that they will pay these amounts on a timely basis. A reinsurer’s insolvency, inability or unwillingness to make payments under the terms of its reinsurance agreement with us could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations. Collateral is often posted by the counterparty to offset this risk; however, we bear the risk that the collateral declines in value or otherwise is inadequate to fully compensate us in the event of a default.
Adverse rating agency actions have resulted in a loss of business and adversely affected our business, results of operations and financial condition, and future adverse rating agency actions could have a further and more significant adverse impact on us.
Financial strength ratings, which various rating agencies publish as measures of an insurance company’s ability to meet obligations, are important to maintaining public confidence in our mortgage insurance coverage and our competitive position. In assigning financial strength ratings, we believe the rating agencies consider several factors, including but not limited to, the adequacy of the mortgage insurer’s capital to withstand high claim scenarios, a mortgage insurer’s historical and projected operating performance, a mortgage insurer’s enterprise risk management framework, parent company financial strength, business outlook, competitive position, management, and corporate strategy. The rating agency issuing the financial strength rating can withdraw or change its rating at any time.
Under PMIERs, the GSEs require maintenance of at least one rating with a rating agency acceptable to the respective GSEs. Ratings downgrades that result in our inability to insure new mortgage loans sold to the GSEs, or the transfer by the GSEs of our existing policies to an alternative mortgage insurer, would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, the current PMIERs do not include a specific ratings requirement with respect to eligibility, but if this were to change in the future, we may become subject to a ratings requirement in order to retain our eligibility status under the PMIERs.
Currently, we have financial strength ratings below our competitors. Moreover, on May 15, 2020, Standard & Poor’s changed the outlook for our principal insurance subsidiary, GMICO, from Creditwatch Developing to Creditwatch Negative. Continued financial strength ratings below our peers or a further downgrade in our financial strength ratings, or the announcement of a potential downgrade could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition in many ways, including: (i) increasing scrutiny of us and our financial condition by the GSEs and/or our customers, potentially resulting in a decrease in the amount of our NIW or, in the most severe case, the cessation of writing new business altogether, or limiting the business opportunities we are presented with and (ii) requiring us to reduce the premiums that we charge for mortgage insurance or introduce new products and services in order to remain competitive. Further, our relationships with our customers may be adversely affected by the ratings assigned to our Parent or its other operating subsidiaries, which may be impacted by factors such as any risk or perceived risk regarding our Parent’s liquidity and its (or its affiliates) ability to meet obligations as they become due, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “—Our brand, reputation and ratings could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.”
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The amount of statutory capital that our insurance subsidiaries have and the amount of statutory capital that they must hold to maintain their financial strength ratings and meet other requirements can vary significantly from time to time due to a number of factors outside of our control.
The financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries are significantly influenced by their statutory surplus amounts, statutory contingency reserve amounts, and capital adequacy ratios. The statutory capital adequacy ratio is known as the RTC ratio, of which the numerator consists of RIF and the denominator consists of the sum of (i) statutory surplus and (ii) the statutory contingency reserve. In any particular year, statutory surplus amounts, statutory contingency reserve amounts, and the RTC ratio may increase or decrease depending on a variety of factors, most of which are outside of our control, including, but not limited to, the following:
•the amount of statutory income or losses generated by our insurance subsidiaries (which itself is sensitive to equity market and credit market conditions);
•the amount of insurance we onboard;
•the amount of additional capital our insurance subsidiaries must hold to support business growth;
•changes in statutory accounting or reserve requirements applicable to our insurance subsidiaries;
•our ability to access capital markets to provide reserve and surplus relief;
•changes in equity market levels;
•the value of certain fixed-income and equity securities in our investment portfolio;
•changes in the credit ratings of investments held in our portfolio;
•the value of certain derivative instruments;
•changes in interest rates;
•credit market volatility; and
•changes to the maximum permissible RTC ratio.
We compete with government-owned enterprises and GSEs, and this may put us at a competitive disadvantage on pricing and other terms and conditions.
We compete with the FHA and the United States Department of Veteran Affairs (the “VA”), as well as certain local-and state- level housing finance agencies. Separately, the GSEs compete with us through certain of their risk-sharing insurance programs. Those competitors may establish pricing terms and business practices that may be influenced by motives such as advancing social housing policy or stabilizing the mortgage lending industry. Those motives may not be consistent with maximizing return on capital or other profitability measures. In addition, those governmental enterprises typically do not have the same capital requirements or costs of capital that we and other mortgage insurance companies have and therefore may have financial flexibility in their pricing and capacity that could put us at a competitive disadvantage. In the event that a government-owned enterprise or GSE in one of our markets determines to change prices significantly or alter the terms and conditions of its mortgage insurance or other credit enhancement products in furtherance of social or other goals rather than a profit or risk management motive, we may be unable to compete in that market effectively, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “—Changes to the role of the GSEs or to the charters or business practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
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Our success depends, in part, on our ability to manage risks in our investment portfolio. Our valuation of fixed maturity, equity and trading securities uses methodologies, estimations and assumptions that are subject to change and differing interpretations that could result in changes to investment valuations that may materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Income from our investment portfolio is a source of cash to support our operations and make claims payments. If we or our investment managers improperly structure our investments to meet those future liabilities or we have unexpected losses, including losses resulting from the forced liquidation of investments before their maturity, we may be unable to meet those obligations. Our investments and investment policies are subject to state insurance laws, which results in our portfolio being predominantly limited to highly rated fixed income securities. If interest rates rise, the market value of our investment portfolio would decrease, which may adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. See “—Interest rates and changes in rates could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
We report fixed maturity, equity and trading securities at fair value on our consolidated balance sheets. These securities represent the majority of our total cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and invested assets. Our portfolio of fixed maturity securities consists primarily of investment grade securities. Estimates of fair values for fixed maturity securities are obtained primarily from industry-standard pricing methodologies utilizing market observable inputs. For our less liquid securities, such as our privately placed securities, we utilize independent market data to employ alternative valuation methods commonly used in the financial services industry to estimate fair value. Based on the market observability of the inputs used in estimating the fair value, the pricing level is assigned. Valuations use inputs and assumptions that are not always observable or may require estimation; valuation methods may be complex and may also require estimation, thereby resulting in values that are less certain and may vary significantly from the value at which the investments may be ultimately sold. The methodologies, estimates and assumptions we use in valuing our investment securities evolve over time and are subject to different interpretation (including based on developments in relevant accounting literature), all of which can lead to changes in the value of our investment securities. Rapidly changing and unanticipated interest rate movements, as well as external macroeconomic, credit and equity market conditions could materially impact the valuation of investment securities as reported within our consolidated financial statements, and the period-to-period changes in value could vary significantly. Decreases in value may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We may be forced to change our investments or investment policies depending upon regulatory, economic and market conditions, and our existing or anticipated financial condition and operating requirements, including the tax position, of our business. As a result, our investment objectives may not be achieved, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely impacted if, and to the extent that, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s final rule defining a QM results in a reduction of the size of the origination market or creates incentives to use government mortgage insurance programs.
The Dodd-Frank Act established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (the “CFPB”) to regulate the offering and provision of consumer financial products and services under federal law, including residential mortgages, and generally requires creditors to make a reasonable, good faith determination of a consumer’s ability to repay any consumer credit transaction secured by a dwelling prior to effecting such transaction (the “ATR Requirement”). A subset of mortgages within the ATR Requirement are known as QMs, which generally are defined as loans without certain risky features. The CFPB is authorized to issue the regulations governing a good faith determination; the Dodd-Frank Act, however, provides a
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statutory presumption of eligibility of loans that satisfy the QM definition. The CFPB’s final rule defining what constitutes a QM (the “QM Rule”) provides that a QM loan exists if, among other factors:
•the term of the loan is less than or equal to 30 years;
•there are no negative amortization, interest only or balloon features;
•the lender properly documents the loan in accordance with the requirements;
•the total “points and fees” do not exceed certain thresholds (generally 3% of the total loan amount); and
•the total DTI Ratio of the borrower does not exceed 43%.
The QM Rule provides a “safe harbor” for QM loans with annual percentage rates (“APRs”) below the threshold of 150 basis points over the Average Prime Offer Rate and a “rebuttable presumption” for QM loans with an APR above that threshold.
The Dodd-Frank Act separately granted statutory authority to the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Administration (“HUD”) (for FHA-insured loans), the VA (for VA-guaranteed loans) and certain other government agency insurance programs to develop their own definitions of a QM in consultation with the CFPB. Under both the FHA’s and the VA’s QM standards, certain loans that would not qualify as QM loans in the conventional market would still be deemed to be QM loans if insured or guaranteed by the FHA and the VA. As a result, lenders may favor the use of FHA-or VA-insurance to achieve the legal protections of making a QM loan through these agencies, even if the same loan could be made at the same or lower cost to the borrower using private mortgage insurance, which could adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition. To the extent that the other government agencies adopt their own definitions of a QM loan that are more favorable to lenders and mortgage holders than those applicable to the market in which we operate, our business, results of operations and financial condition may be adversely affected.
The QM Rule also provides for a second temporary category with more flexible requirements if the loan is eligible to be (i) purchased or guaranteed by the GSEs while they are in conservatorship, which represents the overwhelming majority of our business, or (ii) insured by the FHA, the VA, the Department of Agriculture (the “USDA”) or the Rural Housing Service (“RHS”). The second temporary category still requires that loans satisfy certain criteria, including the requirement that the loans are fully amortizing, have terms of 30 years or less and have points and fees representing 3% or less of the total loan amount. This temporary QM category is known as the “QM Patch.” With respect to loans eligible to be purchased or guaranteed by each GSE, the QM Patch is scheduled to expire on the earlier of (a) the date that such GSE exits conservatorship or (b) on the mandatory compliance date of July 1, 2021. The QM Patch has expired with respect to the loans eligible to be insured by the FHA, the VA, the USDA and the RHS, given that each such agency has issued its own regulations setting forth the definition of QM with respect to loans insured by such agency. Accordingly, as described below, the Amended QM Rule does not affect such QM definitions.
On December 29, 2020, the CFPB promulgated a final rule amending the QM Rule, with a mandatory compliance date of July 1, 2021 (the QM Rule, as amended, the “Amended QM Rule”). The Amended QM Rule moves away from the QM loan definition’s 43% DTI Ratio and replaces it with an alternative pricing threshold, which generally requires that the APR for a QM loan exceed the average prime offer rate for a comparable transaction by less than 2.25 percentage points as of the date the interest rate is set. The Amended QM Rule also requires that creditors (i) consider a consumer’s income, assets (with certain exceptions), debt obligations, alimony, child support and DTI Ratio or residual income and (ii) verify the consumer’s income, assets, debt obligations, alimony and child support for QM loans. Additionally, the Amended QM Rule maintains the CFPB’s ATR Requirement, which went into effect on January 10, 2014. A failure to comply with the ATR Requirement exposes a lender to substantial potential liability. This has resulted in changes to the lending standards and origination practices of our customers. Under the
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Amended QM Rule, mortgage insurance premiums that are payable by the consumer at or prior to consummation of the loan may be included in the calculation of points and fees. To the extent the use of private mortgage insurance causes a loan not to meet the definition of a QM loan, the volume of loans originated with mortgage insurance may decline or cause a change in the mix of premium plans and therefore affect our profitability.
On December 29, 2020, the CFPB promulgated a final rule adding a “seasoning” approach to the QM “safe harbor.” The final rule exempts lenders from liability when they make a reasonable, good faith determination of a consumer’s ability to repay any non-QM loan that has experienced minimal delinquencies within the first three years after origination. Specifically, a non-QM loan is eligible to become a seasoned QM if it experiences no more than two delinquencies of 30 or more days and no delinquencies of 60 or more days within the first three years after origination, and it meets the following product restrictions: (i) the mortgage is secured by a first lien, (ii) the mortgage has a fixed rate, with regular, substantially equal periodic payments that are fully amortizing and no balloon payments, (iii) the term does not exceed 30 years and (iv) the mortgage is not a high-cost mortgage as defined in 12 CFR § 1026.32(a). In order to become a seasoned QM, the mortgage’s total points and fees must not exceed specified limits. While the final rule does not specify a DTI Ratio limit, it requires that the creditor consider the DTI Ratio or residual income, debt obligations, certain income and assets and verify debt obligations, income and assets. Under the final rule, a mortgage generally is eligible to become a seasoned QM only if the creditor holds it in portfolio for the first three years after origination. There are several exceptions to this portfolio requirement including, for example, an exception for a single transfer of a mortgage during such period. In the event of such a transfer, the final rule requires the purchaser to hold the mortgage in portfolio after the transfer for the remainder of the first three years after origination.
On January 20, 2021, the White House issued a memorandum establishing a plan for managing the federal regulatory process which included, among other things, a request that the heads of executive departments and agencies postpone the effective dates of newly-issued rules for sixty days. It is difficult to predict whether and how such memorandum will be implemented and how it will impact either of the aforementioned QM rules as it may be subject to further rulemaking, regulatory interpretation and guidance with the change in Administration, and its full impact may not be known with certainty for some time.
The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected by the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act’s risk retention requirements and the definition of a qualified residential mortgage.
The Dodd-Frank Act requires an originator or issuer to retain a specified percentage of the credit risk exposure on securitized mortgages that do not meet the definition of a qualified residential mortgage (“QRM”).
As required by the Dodd-Frank Act, in 2015 the Federal Banking Agencies, the FHFA, the SEC and HUD adopted a joint final rule implementing the QRM rules that aligns the definition of a QRM with that of a QM. In December 2019, the Federal Banking Agencies initiated a review of certain provisions of the risk retention rule, including the QRM definition. Among other things, the review allows the Federal Banking Agencies to consider the QRM definition in light of any changes to the QM definition under the QM Rule adopted by the CFPB, which would include the final rule promulgated by the CFPB on December 29, 2020. If the QRM definition is changed in a manner that is unfavorable to us, such as to require a large down payment for a loan to qualify as a QRM, without giving consideration to mortgage insurance in computing LTV ratios, the attractiveness of originating and securitizing loans with lower down payments may be reduced, which may adversely affect the future demand for mortgage insurance. See “—Our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely impacted if, and to the extent that, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s final rule defining a QM results in a reduction of the size of the origination market or creates incentives to use government mortgage insurance programs” and “Regulation—Other Federal Regulation—Regulation of Mortgage Origination—QRM Rule.”
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Changes in accounting and reporting standards issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board or other standard-setting bodies and insurance regulators could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our financial statements are subject to the application of GAAP, which is periodically revised. Accordingly, from time to time, we are required to adopt new or revised accounting standards issued by recognized authoritative bodies, including the Financial Accounting Standards Board (the “FASB”). It is possible that future accounting and reporting standards we are required to adopt could change the current accounting treatment that we apply to our financial statements, including impacting the calculation of net earnings, stockholders’ equity and other relevant financial statement line items. The impact of changes in accounting and reporting standards, particularly those that apply to insurance companies, cannot be predicted, but such changes could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Such changes may also cause additional volatility in reported earnings, decrease the understandability of our financial results and affect the comparability of our reported results with the results of others. In addition, the required adoption of future accounting and reporting standards could require us to make significant changes to systems and use additional resources, which may result in significant costs to implement.
If we are unable to on-board, retain, attract and motivate qualified employees or senior management, our business, results of operations and financial condition may be adversely impacted.
Our success is largely dependent on our ability to on-board, retain, attract and motivate qualified employees and senior management. We face intense competition in our industry and local job market for key employees with demonstrated ability, including actuarial, finance, legal, investment, risk, compliance, information technology and other professionals. We also face natural or man-made disasters or pandemics that could at times impact our ability to on-board new hires. See “—The occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or a pandemic, such as COVID-19, could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.” We cannot be sure we will be able to on-board, attract, retain and motivate the desired workforce, and our failure to do so could have a material adverse effect on business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, we may not be able to meet regulatory requirements relating to required expertise in various professional positions.
Managing key employee succession and retention is also critical to our success. We would be adversely affected if we fail to plan adequately for the succession of our senior management and other key employees. While we have succession plans and long-term compensation plans, including retention programs, designed to retain our employees, our succession plans may not operate effectively and our compensation plans cannot guarantee that the services of these employees will continue to be available to us.
If servicers fail to adhere to appropriate servicing standards or experience disruptions to their businesses, our losses could increase.
We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. Among other things, our mortgage insurance policies require insureds and their servicers to timely submit premium and monthly IIF and delinquency reports and to use commercially reasonable efforts to limit and mitigate loss when a loan is delinquent. If a servicer was to experience adverse effects to its business, such servicer could experience delays in its reporting and premium payment requirements. Without reliable, consistent third-party servicing, we may be unable to receive and process payments on insured loans and/or properly recognize and establish reserves on loans when a delinquency exists or occurs but is not reported to us. In addition, if these servicers fail to limit and mitigate losses when appropriate, our losses may unexpectedly increase. The number of borrowers seeking mortgage relief from the COVID-19 pandemic may place a significant strain on the operations of mortgage servicers, which could disrupt the servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies. This may result in servicers failing to appropriately report the delinquency status of loans, including whether the loans are subject to a
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COVID-19-related forbearance program, or failing to properly implement GSE forbearance or other loss mitigation programs. COVID-19 may also significantly impair the financial condition and liquidity of mortgage servicers who are required to advance principal, interest and tax payments to mortgage investors during borrower mortgage forbearance periods.
In recent years, the number of non-bank mortgage loan servicers has increased as the mortgage lending and mortgage loan servicing industries have come under increasing regulation and scrutiny. Significant, sustained failures by large servicers or other disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans may damage our reputation, result in a loss of customer business, subject us to additional regulatory scrutiny and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Inadequate staffing levels could lead to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans, which in turn may contribute to a rise in delinquencies and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. High delinquency rates could also strain the resources of servicers, reducing their ability to undertake mitigation efforts that would help limit losses.
Furthermore, we have delegated to the GSEs, which have in turn delegated to most of their servicers, the authority to accept modifications, short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure on loans we insure. Servicers are required to operate under protocols established by the GSEs in accepting these loss mitigation alternatives. We depend on servicers in making these decisions and mitigating our exposure to losses. In some cases, loss mitigation decisions favorable to the GSEs may not be favorable to us and may increase the incidence of paid claims. Inappropriate delegation protocols or failure of servicers to service in accordance with the protocols may increase the magnitude of our losses and have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Our delegation of loss mitigation decisions to the GSEs is subject to cancellation, but exercise of our cancellation rights may have an adverse effect on our relationship with the GSEs and customers.
Our delegated underwriting program may subject our mortgage insurance business to unanticipated claims.
We enter into agreements with our customers that commit us to insure loans made by them using our pre-established guidelines for delegated underwriting. Delegated underwriting represented 63% and 54% of our total NIW by loan count for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Once we accept a customer into our delegated underwriting program, we generally insure a loan originated by that customer without validating the accuracy of the data submitted by the customer, investigating the loan file for fraud, or confirming that the customer followed our pre-established guidelines for delegated underwriting. See “Business—Underwriting.” Under this program, a customer could commit us to insure a material number of loans that would fail our pre- established guidelines for delegated underwriting but pass our model and certain gating criteria before we discover the problem and terminate that customer’s delegated underwriting authority. Although coverage on such loans may be rescindable or otherwise limited under the terms of our master policies, the burden of establishing the right to rescind or deny coverage lies with the insurer. To the extent that our customers exceed their delegated underwriting authorities, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be materially adversely affected.
Potential liabilities in connection with our contract underwriting services could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We offer contract underwriting services to certain of our customers, pursuant to which our employees and contractors work directly with the customer to determine whether the data relating to a borrower and a proposed loan contained in a mortgage loan application file complies with the customer’s loan underwriting guidelines or the investor’s loan purchase requirements. In connection with that service, we also compile the application data and submit it to the automated underwriting systems of Fannie Mae and
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Freddie Mac, which independently analyze the data to determine if the proposed loan complies with their investor requirements.
Under the terms of our contract underwriting agreements, we agree to indemnify the customer against losses incurred if we make material errors in determining whether loans processed by our contract underwriters meet specified underwriting or purchase criteria, subject to contractual limitations on liability. As a result, we assume credit and processing risk in connection with our contract underwriting services. If our reserves for potential claims in connection with our contract underwriting services are inadequate as a result of differences from our estimates and assumptions or other reasons, we may be required to increase our underlying reserves, which could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The premiums we agree to charge for our mortgage insurance coverage may not adequately compensate us for the risks and costs associated with the coverage we provide.
We establish premium rates for the duration of a mortgage insurance certificate upon issuance, and we cannot cancel the coverage or adjust the premiums after a certificate is issued. As a result, we cannot offset the impact of unanticipated claims with premium increases on coverage in-force. Our premium rates vary with the perceived risk of a claim and prepayment on the insured loan and are developed using models based on our long term historical experience, which takes into account a number of factors including, but not limited to, the LTV ratio, whether the mortgage provides for fixed payments or variable payments, the term of the mortgage, the borrower’s credit history, the borrower’s income and assets, and home price appreciation. See “—If the models used in our business are inaccurate or there are differences and/or variability in loss development compared to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.” In the event the premiums we charge for our mortgage insurance coverage may not adequately compensate us for the risks and costs associated with the coverage, it may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operation and financial condition.
A decrease in the volume of Low-Down Payment Loan originations or an increase in the volume of mortgage insurance cancellations could result in a decline in our revenue.
We provide mortgage insurance primarily for Low-Down Payment Loans. Factors that could lead to a decrease in the volume of Low-Down Payment Loan originations include, but are not limited to:
•an increase in home mortgage interest rates and further limitations on the deductibility of local property taxes for federal income tax purposes;
•implementation of more rigorous mortgage lending regulation, such as under the Dodd-Frank Act;
•a decline in economic conditions generally, or in conditions in regional and local economies;
•events outside of our control, including natural and man-made disasters and pandemics such as COVID-19, adversely affecting housing markets and home buying;
•the level of consumer confidence, which may be adversely affected by economic instability, war or terrorist events;
•an increase in the price of homes relative to income levels;
•a lack of housing supply at lower home prices;
•adverse population trends, including lower homeownership rates;
•high rates of home price appreciation, which for refinancings affect whether refinanced loans have LTV ratios that require mortgage insurance; and
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•changes in government housing policy encouraging loans to FTHBs.
A decline in the volume of Low-Down Payment Loan originations would reduce the demand for mortgage insurance and, therefore, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “—A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience.”
In addition, a significant percentage of the premiums we earn each year are renewal premiums from mortgage insurance coverage written in previous years. We estimate that approximately 88% of our gross premiums earned in each of the years ended December 31, 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively, were renewal premiums. As a result, the length of time insurance remains in-force is an important determinant of our mortgage insurance revenues. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and many other mortgage investors generally permit a borrower to ask the loan servicer to cancel the borrower’s obligation to pay for mortgage insurance when the principal amount of the mortgage falls below 80% of the home’s value. Furthermore, the Homeowners Protection Act of 1998 (“HOPA”) provides a right for a borrower, so long as the borrower meets other criteria, to request cancellation of private mortgage insurance from their lender either on the date that LTV ratio of the mortgage is first scheduled to reach 80% of its original value or the date on which the LTV ratio of the mortgage reaches 80% of the original value based on actual payments. Likewise, under HOPA, there is an obligation for lenders to automatically terminate a borrower’s obligation to pay for mortgage insurance coverage once the LTV ratio reaches 78% of the original value. Factors that tend to reduce the length of time our mortgage insurance remains in-force include:
•declining interest rates, which may result in the refinancing of the mortgages underlying our mortgage insurance coverage with new mortgage loans that may not require mortgage insurance or that we do not insure;
•Customer concentration levels with certain customers that actively market refinancing opportunities to their existing borrowers;
•significant appreciation in the value of homes, which causes the unpaid balance of the mortgage to decrease below 80% of the value of the home and enables the borrower to request cancellation of the mortgage insurance; and
•changes in mortgage insurance cancellation requirements of the GSEs or under applicable law.
Our policy primary persistency rates were 64%, 78% and 84% for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and each of the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively. A decrease in persistency generally would reduce the amount of our IIF and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. However, higher persistency on certain legacy products, especially A minus, Alt-A, ARMs and certain 100% LTV loans, could have a material adverse effect if claims generated by such products remain elevated or increase.
Our computer systems may fail or be compromised, and unanticipated problems could materially adversely impact our disaster recovery systems and business continuity plans, which could damage our reputation, impair our ability to conduct business effectively and materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial conditions.
Our business is highly dependent upon the effective operation of our computer systems. We also have arrangements in place with our partners and other third-party service providers through which we share and receive information, including the submission of new mortgage insurance applications. We also rely on these systems throughout our business for a variety of functions, including processing claims, providing information to customers, performing actuarial analyses and maintaining financial records. Despite the implementation of security and back-up measures, our computer systems and those of our partners and third-party service providers have been and may be vulnerable to system failures, physical or electronic intrusions, computer viruses or other attacks, programming errors and similar disruptive
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problems. The failure of these systems for any reason could cause significant interruptions to our operations, which could result in a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Technology continues to expand and plays an ever-increasing role in our business. While it is our goal to safeguard information assets from physical theft and cybersecurity threats, there can be no assurance that our information security will detect and protect information assets from these ever-increasing risks. Information assets include both information itself in the form of computer data, written materials, knowledge and supporting processes, and the information technology systems, networks, other electronic devices and storage media used to store, process, retrieve and transmit that information. As more information is used and shared by our employees, customers and suppliers, both within and outside our company, cybersecurity threats become expansive in nature. Confidentiality, integrity and availability of information are essential to maintaining our reputation, legal position and ability to conduct our operations. Although we have implemented controls and continue to train our employees, a cybersecurity event could still occur that would cause damage to our reputation with our customers and other stakeholders and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “—We collect, process, store, share, disclose and use consumer information and other data, and an actual or perceived failure to protect such information and data or respect users’ privacy could damage our reputation and brand and adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
We rely on technologies to provide services to our customers. Customers require us to provide and service our mortgage insurance products in a secure manner, either electronically through our internet website or through direct electronic data transmissions. Accordingly, we invest resources in establishing and maintaining electronic connectivity with customers and, more generally, in technological advancements. In addition, if our information technology systems are inferior to our competitors’, existing and potential customers may choose our competitors’ products over ours. Our business would be negatively impacted if we are unable to enhance our platform when necessary to support our primary business functions, including to match or exceed the technological capabilities of our competitors. We cannot predict with certainty the cost of maintaining and improving our platform, but failure to make necessary improvements and any significant shortfall in any technology enhancements or negative variance in the timeline in which system enhancements are delivered could have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
In addition, a natural or man-made disaster or a pandemic could disrupt public and private infrastructure, including our information technology systems. See “—The occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or a pandemic, such as COVID-19, could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.” Unanticipated problems with, or failures of, our disaster recovery systems and business continuity plans could have a material adverse impact on our ability to conduct business and on our results of operations and financial condition. In addition, if a significant number of our employees were unavailable in the event of a disaster or pandemic, our ability to effectively conduct business could be severely compromised. The failure of our disaster recovery systems and business continuity plans could adversely impact our profitability and our business.
We collect, process, store, share, disclose and use consumer information and other data, and an actual or perceived failure to protect such information and data or respect users’ privacy could damage our reputation and brand and adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We retain confidential customer information in our computer systems, and we rely on commercial technologies to maintain the security of those systems, including computers or mobile devices. Anyone who can circumvent our security measures and penetrate our computer systems or misuse authorized access could access, view, misappropriate, alter, or delete any information in the systems, including personally identifiable information, and proprietary business information. Our employees and vendors use portable computers or mobile devices that may contain similar information to that in our computer
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systems, and these devices have been and can be lost, stolen or damaged, and therefore subject to the same risks as our other computer systems. In addition, an increasing number of states require that affected parties be notified or other actions be taken (which could involve significant costs to us) if a security breach results in the inappropriate disclosure of personally identifiable information. We have experienced occasional, actual or attempted breaches of our cybersecurity, although to date none of these breaches has had a material effect on our business, operations or reputation. Any compromise of the security of our computer systems or those of our customers and third-party service providers that results in inappropriate disclosure of personally identifiable customer information could damage our reputation in the marketplace, deter lenders from purchasing our mortgage insurance, subject us to significant civil and criminal liability and require us to incur significant technical, legal and other expenses.
Any failure or perceived failure by us to comply with our privacy policies, our privacy-related obligations to consumers or other third parties, or our privacy-related legal obligations, or any compromise of security that results in the unauthorized release or transfer of sensitive information, which could include personally identifiable information or other user data, may result in governmental investigations, enforcement actions, regulatory fines, litigation and public statements against us by consumer advocacy groups or others, and could cause our customers to lose trust in us, all of which could be costly and have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Regulatory agencies or business partners may institute more stringent data protection requirements or certifications than those that we are currently subject to and, if we cannot comply with those standards in a timely manner, we may lose the ability to sell our products or process transactions containing payment information. Moreover, if third parties that we work with violate applicable laws or our policies, such violations also may put consumer information at risk and could in turn harm our reputation, our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or a pandemic, such as COVID-19, could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We are exposed to various risks arising out of natural disasters, large-scale public health emergencies and man-made disasters, including earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and tornadoes, acts of terrorism, military actions and pandemics, including the outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus known as COVID-19. While mortgage insurance does not cover property damage, a natural or man-made disaster or a pandemic could disrupt our computer systems and our ability to conduct or process business (including as a result of widespread absences of our employees due to exposure to the virus) as well as lead to higher delinquency rates as borrowers who are affected by the disaster may be unable to meet their contractual obligations, such as mortgage payments on loans insured under our mortgage insurance coverage. A natural or man-made disaster or a pandemic could trigger an economic downturn in the areas directly or indirectly affected by the disaster. In particular, while it is uncertain the extent to which such events may impact our business, the consequences of these events and actions taken by governmental authorities, the GSEs, our customers or others in connection therewith could lead to disruption of the economy, which may erode consumer and investor confidence levels or lead to increased volatility in the financial markets. These consequences could, among other things, result in an adverse effect on home prices in those areas or higher unemployment, which could result in increased loss experience. See “—The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted our business, and its ultimate impact on our business and financial results will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the pandemic, the resurgence of cases of the disease, the reimposition of restrictions designed to curb its spread, the timing and successful rollout of vaccines and other actions taken by governmental authorities in response to the pandemic” and “—A deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices may adversely affect our loss experience.” A natural or man-made disaster or a pandemic could also disrupt public and private infrastructure, including communications and financial services, any of which could disrupt our normal business operations, and could adversely affect the value of the assets in our investment portfolio if it affects companies’ ability to pay principal or interest on their securities or the value of the underlying collateral of structured securities.
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Natural or man-made disasters or a pandemic could also disrupt the operations of our counterparties or result in increased prices for the products and services they provide to us, which could lead to increased reinsurance rates, less favorable terms and conditions and reduced availability of reinsurance. This may cause us to retain more risk than we otherwise would retain and could negatively affect our compliance with the financial requirements of the PMIERs. The PMIERs require us to maintain significantly more “Minimum Required Assets” for delinquent loans than for performing loans; however, the increase in Minimum Required Assets is not as great for certain delinquent loans in areas that FEMA has declared major disaster areas. For example, in response to COVID-19, the GSEs made temporary revisions to PMIERs in the PMIERs Amendment, providing relief on the risk-based required asset amount factor for certain non-performing loans impacted by a COVID-19 hardship. See “Regulation—Agency Qualification Requirements” and “—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.” An increase in delinquency notices resulting from a natural or man-made disaster or a pandemic may result in an increase in “Minimum Required Assets” and a decrease in the level of our excess “Available Assets” that is discussed in our risk factor titled “—Risks Relating to Regulatory Matters—An adverse change in our regulatory requirements could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
We may suffer losses in connection with future litigation and regulatory proceedings or other actions.
From time to time, we may become subject to various legal and regulatory proceedings related to our business. Litigation and regulatory proceedings may result in financial losses and harm our reputation. We face the risk of litigation and regulatory proceedings or other actions in the ordinary course of operating our business, including class action lawsuits. We are also subject to litigation arising out of our general business activities such as our contractual and employment relationships. Due to the inherent uncertainties of litigation and regulatory proceedings, we cannot determine with certainty the ultimate outcome of any such litigation or proceedings. A substantial legal liability or injunction or a significant regulatory action against us could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Moreover, even if we ultimately prevail in the litigation, regulatory proceeding or other action, we could suffer significant reputational harm and incur significant legal expenses and such litigation may divert management’s attention and resources, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations.
The requirements of being a public company may strain our resources and distract our management, which could make it difficult to manage our business and cause us to incur incremental costs.
Historically, we have not been subject to the same financial, reporting and other corporate governance requirements as public companies. After this offering, we will be required to prepare and file annual, quarterly and other reports with the SEC, including financial statements that comply with the SEC’s detailed reporting requirements. We will also be subject to other reporting and corporate governance requirements under the listing standards of the and the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which will impose significant compliance costs and obligations upon us. The changes necessitated by our becoming a public company will require a significant commitment of additional resources and management oversight, which may increase our operating costs. These changes will also place significant additional demands on our finance and accounting staff, who may not have experience working for a public company, and on our financial accounting and information systems. We may in the future hire additional accounting and financial staff with appropriate public company reporting experience and technical accounting knowledge. We may also incur other expenses associated with being a public company, including, but not limited to, increases in auditing, accounting and legal fees and expenses, investor
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relations expenses, directors’ fees and director and officer liability insurance costs, registrar and transfer agent fees and listing fees. As a public company, we will be required, among other things, to:
•prepare and file periodic reports, and distribute other stockholder communications, in compliance with the federal securities laws and the listing requirements and rules of the Nasdaq;
•define and expand the roles and the duties of our board of directors and its committees;
•institute more comprehensive compliance, investor relations and internal audit functions; and
•evaluate and maintain our system of internal controls over financial reporting, and report on management’s assessment thereof, in compliance with rules and regulations of the SEC and the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.
Our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries will continue to perform or support many important corporate functions for our operations, including but not limited to, investment management, information technology services and certain administrative services (such as finance, human resources, employee benefit administration and legal). Our consolidated financial statements reflect charges for these services. There is no assurance that, following the completion of this offering, these services will be sustained at the same levels or that we would be able to replace such services in a timely manner or on comparable terms. If our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries cease to provide services pursuant to the terms of our existing agreements, our costs of procuring services from third parties may increase. As a standalone company, we may be unable to obtain such goods and services at comparable prices or on terms as favorable as those obtained prior to this offering, either of which could adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition. See “—Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent—The terms of our existing arrangements between our Parent and third parties under which we receive services as an affiliate of our Parent may be more favorable than we will be able to obtain from a third party on our own.”
The historical consolidated financial data included in this prospectus is not necessarily representative of the results we would have achieved as a standalone company and may not be a reliable indicator of our future results.
The historical consolidated financial data included in this prospectus is for GMHI and its subsidiaries. Prior to the completion of this offering, GMHI has been a wholly owned subsidiary of GHI (and an indirect subsidiary of our Parent) since 2012. This historical consolidated financial data does not necessarily reflect the financial condition, results of operations or cash flows we would have achieved as a standalone company during the periods presented, or those we will achieve in the future. Significant increases may occur in our cost structure as a result of this offering, including costs related to public company reporting and investor relations. As a result of these matters, among others, it may be difficult for investors to compare our future results to historical results or to evaluate our relative performance or trends in our business.
Our indebtedness could adversely affect our financial condition and prevent us from fulfilling our obligations under our indebtedness.
We have a significant amount of indebtedness. As of September 30, 2020, we had $750 million of debt outstanding. Our substantial indebtedness could have important consequences. For example, it could:
•increase our vulnerability to general adverse economic and industry conditions;
•require us to dedicate a substantial portion of our cash flow from operations to payments on our indebtedness, thereby reducing the availability of our cash flow to fund working capital, capital expenditures and other general corporate purposes;
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•limit our flexibility in planning for, or reacting to, changes in our business and the industry in which we operate;
•place us at a competitive disadvantage compared to our competitors that have less debt;
•limit our ability to borrow additional funds; and
•result in increased scrutiny from our regulators and the imposition of additional requirements or conditions that could, among other things, limit our ability to pay down debts.
In addition, there can be no assurance that we will be able to refinance any of our debt or that we will be able to refinance our debt on commercially reasonable terms. If we were unable to make payments or refinance our debt or obtain new financing under these circumstances, we would have to consider other options, such as:
•sales of assets;
•sales of equity; or
•negotiations to restructure the applicable debt.
Our debt instruments may restrict, or market or business conditions may limit, our ability to obtain additional indebtedness, refinance our indebtedness or use some of our options.
Risks Relating to Regulatory Matters
Our business is extensively regulated and changes in regulation may reduce our profitability and limit our growth.
Our insurance operations are subject to a wide variety of laws and regulations and are extensively regulated. State insurance laws regulate most aspects of our business, and our insurance subsidiaries are regulated by the insurance departments of the states in which they are domiciled and licensed. Failure to comply with applicable regulations or to obtain or maintain appropriate authorizations or exemptions under any applicable laws could result in restrictions on our ability to conduct business or engage in activities regulated in one or more jurisdictions in which we operate and could subject us to fines, injunctions and other sanctions that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, the nature and extent of regulation could materially change, which may result in additional costs associated with compliance with any such changes, or changes to our operations that may be necessary to comply, any of which may have a material adverse effect on our business. See “—An adverse change in our regulatory requirements could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition” and “—Risks Relating to Our Business—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
State insurance regulatory authorities have broad administrative powers, which at times are coordinated and communicated across regulatory bodies. These administrative powers include, but are not limited to:
•licensing companies and agents to transact business;
•regulating certain premium rates;
•reviewing and approving policy forms;
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•regulating discrimination in pricing, coverage terms and unfair trade and claims practices, including payment of inducements;
• establishing and revising statutory capital and reserve requirements and solvency standards;
•evaluating enterprise risk to an insurance company;
•approving changes in control of insurance companies;
•restricting the payment of dividends and other transactions between affiliates;
•regulating the types, amounts and valuation of investments; and
•restricting, pursuant to state monoline restrictions, the types of insurance products that may be offered.
State insurance regulators and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (the “NAIC”) regularly re-examine existing laws and regulations, which may lead to modifications to SAP, interpretations of existing laws and the development of new laws and regulations applicable to insurance companies and their products.
Litigation and regulatory investigations or other actions are common in the insurance business and may result in financial losses, injunctions and harm to our reputation.
We face the risk of litigation and regulatory investigations or other actions in the ordinary course of operating our business.
Mortgage insurers have been involved in litigation alleging violations of Section 8 of the Real Estate Settlement and Procedures Act of 1974 (“RESPA”) or related state anti-inducement laws and the notice provisions of the Fair Credit Reporting Act (“FCRA”). Among other things, Section 8 of RESPA generally precludes mortgage insurers from paying referral fees to mortgage lenders for the referral of mortgage insurance business. This limitation also can prohibit providing services or products to mortgage lenders free of charge, charging fees for services that are lower than their reasonable or fair market value, and paying fees for services that mortgage lenders provide that are higher than their reasonable or fair market value, in exchange for the referral of mortgage insurance business. Various regulators, including the CFPB, state insurance commissioners and state attorneys general may bring actions seeking various forms of relief in connection with alleged violations of the referral fee limitations of RESPA, as well as by private litigants in class actions. The insurance law provisions of many states also prohibit or restrict paying for the referral of insurance business and provide various mechanisms to enforce this prohibition.
In the past, a number of lawsuits have challenged the actions of mortgage insurance companies, including certain of our mortgage insurance subsidiaries, under RESPA, alleging that the insurers have violated the referral fee prohibition of Section 8 of RESPA by entering into captive reinsurance arrangements or providing products or services to mortgage lenders at improperly reduced prices in return for the referral of mortgage insurance. In addition to these private lawsuits, we and other mortgage insurance companies have in the past received civil investigative demands from the CFPB and state insurance regulators as part of their respective investigations to determine whether mortgage lenders and mortgage insurance providers engaged in acts or practices in connection with their captive mortgage insurance arrangements in violation of RESPA and state insurance laws. In 2013, the CFPB entered into consent orders with us and three other mortgage insurance companies settling the CFPB’s allegations related to mortgage insurance company captive arrangements, and those consent orders remain in effect for a period of ten years. One CFPB enforcement action against a mortgage originator for alleged kickbacks received from mortgage insurers, in which the CFPB ordered the mortgage originator to pay approximately $109 million in disgorgement, was decided by the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. On January 31, 2018, the en banc panel reinstated the original three-judge panel’s decision to overturn the CFPB’s order on certain statutory grounds, including finding fault with the CFPB’s
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interpretation of Section 8 of RESPA. The court’s ruling in this case may have an impact on future enforcement activity. Federal and state regulatory enforcement of Section 8 of RESPA presents risk for many providers of “settlement services,” including mortgage insurers.
A substantial legal liability or a significant regulatory action against us could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. It is possible that we could become subject to future investigations, regulatory actions, lawsuits, or enforcement actions, which could cause us to incur legal costs and, if we were found to have violated any laws or regulations, require us to pay fines and damages, result in injunctions and incur other sanctions, perhaps in material amounts. Increased regulatory scrutiny and any resulting investigations or legal proceedings could result in new legal precedents and industry- wide regulations or practices that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Moreover, even if we ultimately prevail in the litigation, regulatory action or investigation, we could suffer significant reputational harm and incur significant legal expenses, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. We cannot predict the ultimate outcomes of any future investigations, regulatory actions or legal proceedings.
An adverse change in our regulatory requirements could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We are required by certain states and other regulators to maintain certain RTC ratios. In addition, PMIERs include financial requirements for mortgage insurers under which a mortgage insurer’s “Available Assets” (which are generally only the most liquid assets of an insurer) must meet or exceed “Minimum Required Assets” (which are based on an insurer’s RIF and are calculated from tables of factors with several risk dimensions and are subject to a floor amount). The failure of our insurance subsidiaries to meet their regulatory requirements, and additionally the current PMIERs financial requirements, could limit our ability to write new business. For further discussion of the importance of the current PMIERs financial requirements to our insurance subsidiaries, see “—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition” and “—We are subject to minimum statutory capital requirements that, if not met or waived, would result in restrictions or prohibitions on our doing business and could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
An adverse change in our RTC ratio or other minimum regulatory requirements could cause rating agencies to downgrade our financial strength ratings, which would have an adverse impact on our ability to write and retain business, and could cause regulators to take regulatory or supervisory actions with respect to our business, all of which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and business. For further discussion on the importance of ratings, see “—Risks Relating to Our Business—Adverse rating agency actions have resulted in a loss of business and adversely affected our business, results of operations and financial condition, and future adverse rating agency actions could have a further and more significant adverse impact on us.”
These regulations are principally designed for the protection of policyholders rather than for the benefit of investors. Any proposed or future legislation or NAIC initiatives, if adopted, may be more restrictive on our ability to conduct business than current regulatory requirements or may result in higher costs or increased statutory capital and reserve requirements. Further, because laws and regulations can be complex and sometimes inexact, there is also a risk that any particular regulator’s or enforcement authority’s interpretation of a legal, accounting or reserving issue may change over time to our detriment, or expose us to different or additional regulatory risks. The application of these regulations and guidelines by insurers involves interpretations and judgments that may differ from those of state insurance departments. We cannot provide assurance that such differences of opinion will not result in regulatory,
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tax or other challenges to the actions we have taken to date. The result of those potential challenges could require us to increase levels of statutory capital and reserves or incur higher operating costs and/or have implications on certain tax positions.
We are subject to minimum statutory capital requirements that, if not met or waived, would result in restrictions or prohibitions on our doing business and could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Certain states have insurance laws or regulations that require a mortgage insurer to maintain a minimum amount of statutory capital relative to its level of RIF. While formulations of minimum capital vary in certain states, the most common measure applied allows for a maximum permitted RTC ratio of 25:1. If we fail to maintain the required minimum capital level in a state where we write business, we would generally be required to immediately stop writing new business in the state until we re-establish the required level of capital or receive a waiver of the requirement from the state’s insurance regulator, or until we have established an alternative source of underwriting capacity acceptable to the regulator. As of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, our combined RTC ratio was approximately 12.1:1 and 12.2:1, respectively. While it is our expectation that our business will continue to meet its regulatory capital requirements, should we in the future exceed required RTC levels, we would seek required regulatory and GSE forbearance and approvals or seek approval for the utilization of alternative insurance vehicles. However, there can be no assurance if, and on what terms, such forbearance and approvals may be obtained.
The NAIC established the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Working Group (the “MGIWG”) to determine and make recommendations to the NAIC’s Financial Condition Committee as to what, if any, changes to make to the solvency and other regulations relating to mortgage guaranty insurers. The MGIWG continues to work on revisions to the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act (the “MGI Model”), revisions to Statement of Statutory Accounting Principles No. 58—Mortgage Guaranty Insurance and the development of a mortgage guaranty supplemental filing. The proposed amendments of the MGI Model relate to, among other things: (i) capital and reserve standards, including increased minimum capital and surplus requirements, mortgage guaranty-specific RBC standards, dividend restrictions and contingency and premium deficiency reserves; (ii) limitations on the geographic concentration of mortgage guaranty risk, including state-based limitations; (iii) restrictions on mortgage insurers’ investments in notes secured by mortgages; (iv) prudent underwriting standards and formal underwriting guidelines to be approved by the insurer’s board; (v) the establishment of formal, internal “Mortgage Guaranty Quality Control Programs” with respect to in-force business; (vi) prohibitions on captive reinsurance arrangements; and (vii) incorporation of an NAIC “Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Standards Manual.” The MGIWG is working on the development of the mortgage guaranty insurance capital model, which is needed to determine the RBC and loan-level capital standards for the amended MGI Model. We cannot predict the outcome of this process, whether any state will adopt the amended MGI Model or any of its specific provisions, the effect changes, if any, will have on the mortgage guaranty insurance market generally, or on our business specifically, the additional costs associated with compliance with any such changes, or any changes to our operations that may be necessary to comply, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. We also cannot predict whether other regulatory initiatives will be adopted or what impact, if any, such initiatives, if adopted as laws, may have on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Changes in regulations that adversely affect the mortgage insurance markets in which we operate could affect our operations significantly and could reduce the demand for mortgage insurance.
In addition to the general regulatory risks that are described under “—Our business is extensively regulated and changes in regulation may reduce our profitability and limit our growth,” we are also affected by various additional regulations relating particularly to our mortgage insurance operations.
Federal and state regulations affect the scope of our competitors’ operations, which influences the size of the mortgage insurance market and the intensity of the competition. This competition includes not
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only other private mortgage insurers, but also federal and state governmental and quasi-governmental agencies, principally the FHA and the VA, which are governed by federal regulations. Increases in the maximum loan amount that the FHA can insure, and reductions in the mortgage insurance premiums the FHA charges, can reduce the demand for private mortgage insurance. Decreases in the maximum loan amounts the GSEs will purchase or guarantee, increases in GSE fees or decreases in the maximum LTV ratio for loans the GSEs will purchase can also reduce demand for private mortgage insurance. See “—Risks Relating to Our Business—Changes to the role of the GSEs or to the charters or business practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.” Legislative, regulatory and administrative changes could cause demand for private mortgage insurance to decrease.
Additionally, on December 17, 2020, the FHFA promulgated the Enterprise Capital Framework, which imposes a new capital framework on the GSEs, including risk-based and leverage capital requirement and capital buffers in excess of regulatory minimums that can be drawn down in periods of financial distress. The Enterprise Capital Framework requires significantly increased regulatory capital requirements for the GSEs over current requirements. Higher GSE capital requirements could ultimately lead to increased costs to borrowers for GSE loans, which in turn could shift the market away from the GSEs to FHA or provide incentives for originators to retain mortgages or securitize them in the private-label market. Such a shift could result in a smaller market for private mortgage insurance. If these developments should occur as a result of the Enterprise Capital Framework, they would adversely affect the demand for mortgage insurance, which would adversely affect our mortgage insurance operations. See “—Risks Relating to Our Business—Changes to the role of the GSEs or to the charters or business practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.”
In addition, if international banking standards set forth by the Basel Committee are implemented in the United States, without modification by the Federal Banking Agencies (as defined below), the rules could discourage the use of mortgage insurance in the United States. See “—The implementation of the Basel III may discourage the use of mortgage insurance.”
As a credit enhancement provider in the residential mortgage lending industry, we are also subject to compliance with or otherwise impacted by various federal and state consumer protection and insurance laws, including RESPA, the Fair Housing Act of 1968 (the “Fair Housing Act”), HOPA, the FCRA and others. Among other things, these laws: (i) prohibit payments for referrals of settlement service business, providing services to lenders for no or reduced fees or payments for services not actually performed; (ii) require cancellation of insurance and refund of unearned premiums under certain circumstances; and (iii) govern the circumstances under which companies may obtain and use consumer credit information. Changes in these laws or regulations, changes in the appropriate regulator’s interpretation of these laws or regulations or heightened enforcement activity could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The implementation of the Basel III may discourage the use of mortgage insurance.
In 1988, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (the “Basel Committee”), developed the Basel Capital Accord (“Basel I”), which sets out international benchmarks for assessing banks’ capital adequacy requirements. In 2005, the Basel Committee issued an update to Basel I (“Basel II”), which, among other things, sets forth capital treatment of mortgage insurance purchased and held on balance sheet by banks in respect of their origination and securitization activities. Following the financial crisis of 2008, the Basel Committee made further revisions to improve the quality and quantity of capital banking organizations hold through Basel III. The Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) (collectively, the “Federal Banking Agencies”) implemented Basel III through the adoption of revisions to their regulatory capital rules (the “Basel III Rules”), which establish minimum RBC and leverage capital requirements for most United States banking organizations (although banking organizations with less than $10 billion in total assets may now choose
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to comply with an alternative community bank leverage ratio framework established by the Federal Banking Agencies in 2019).
If further revisions to the Basel III Rules increase the capital requirements of banking organizations with respect to the residential mortgages we insure or do not provide sufficiently favorable treatment for the use of mortgage insurance purchased in respect of a bank’s origination and securitization activities it could adversely affect the demand for mortgage insurance. In December 2017, the Basel Committee published final revisions to the Basel III capital framework (the “2017 Basel III Revisions”) that were generally targeted for implementation by each participating country by January 1, 2022. In March 2020, the Basel Committee revised the target date for implementation to January 1, 2023. Under these revisions to the international framework, banks using the standardized approach to determine their credit risk may consider mortgage insurance in calculating the exposure amount for real estate, but will determine the risk-weight for residential mortgages based on the LTV ratio at loan origination, without consideration of mortgage insurance. Under the standardized approach, after the appropriate risk-weight is determined, the existence of mortgage insurance could be considered, but only if the company issuing the insurance has a lower risk-weight than the underlying exposure. Mortgage insurance issued by private companies would not meet this test. Therefore, under the 2017 Basel III Revisions, mortgage insurance could not mitigate credit and lower the capital charge under the standardized approach. It is possible that the Federal Banking Agencies could determine that their current capital rules are at least as stringent as the 2017 Basel III Revisions, in which case no change would be mandated. However, if the Federal Banking Agencies decide to implement the 2017 Basel III Revisions as specifically drafted by the Basel Committee, mortgage insurance would not lower the LTV ratio of residential loans for capital purposes, and therefore may decrease the demand for mortgage insurance.
Further, it is possible (but not mandated by the 2017 Basel III Revisions) that the Federal Banking Agencies and the GSEs might likewise discontinue taking mortgage insurance into account when determining a mortgage’s LTV ratio for prudential (non-capital) purposes.
Risks Relating to Our Continuing Relationship with Our Parent
Our Parent will be able to exert significant influence over us and our corporate decisions.
Under the terms of the master agreement that we intend to enter into with our Parent in connection with this offering (the “Master Agreement”), our Parent will be entitled to designate a certain number of persons to our board of directors and certain committees thereof depending on the beneficial ownership by our Parent of our outstanding common stock. In addition, for so long as our Parent beneficially owns at least 50% of our outstanding common stock, we will be required to seek the prior written consent of our Parent to take various significant corporation actions (subject to certain exceptions). See “Certain Relationships and Related Party Transactions—Relationship with Our Parent—Master Agreement.” Because our Parent’s interests may differ from those of other stockholders, actions that our Parent takes or omits to take with respect to us (including those corporate or business actions requiring its prior written approval), for as long as it is our controlling stockholder, may not be as favorable to other stockholders as they are to our Parent. See “—Conflicts of interest and other disputes may arise between our Parent and us that may be resolved in a manner unfavorable to us and our other stockholders.” We also intend to enter into a registration rights agreement with our Parent, which will give our Parent a right, subject to certain conditions, to require us to register the sale of our common stock beneficially owned by our Parent after this offering. See “—General Risk Factors—Future sales of shares by existing stockholders could cause our share price to decline.” We cannot accurately predict whether any of the terms of the Master Agreement or registration rights agreement will negatively affect our business.
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If the ownership of our common stock continues to be highly concentrated, it may prevent you and other minority stockholders from influencing significant corporate decisions and may result in conflicts of interest.
Following this offering, our Parent will continue to beneficially own a majority of our common stock. As a result, our Parent will control all matters requiring a stockholder vote, including: the election of directors; mergers, consolidations and acquisitions; the sale of all or substantially all of our assets and other decisions affecting our capital structure; the amendment of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and our amended and restated bylaws; and our winding up and dissolution. This concentration of ownership may delay, deter or prevent acts that would be favored by our other stockholders. The interests of our Parent may not always coincide with our interests or the interests of our other stockholders. This concentration of ownership may also have the effect of delaying, preventing or deterring a change in control of us. Also, our Parent may seek to cause us to take courses of action that, in its judgment, could enhance its investment in us, but which might involve risks to our other stockholders or adversely affect us or our other stockholders, including investors in this offering. As a result, the market price of our common stock could decline or stockholders might not receive a premium over the then-current market price of our common stock upon a change in control. In addition, this concentration of share ownership may adversely affect the trading price of our common stock because investors may perceive disadvantages in owning shares in a company with significant stockholders. See “Principal Stockholder” and “Description of Capital Stock—Anti-Takeover Provisions.”
Conflicts of interest and other disputes may arise between our Parent and us that may be resolved in a manner unfavorable to us and our other stockholders.
Conflicts of interest and other disputes may arise between our Parent and us in connection with our past and ongoing relationships, and any future relationships we may establish.
Following this offering and for so long as our Parent continues to beneficially own 50% or more of our outstanding common stock, our Parent will have the right to nominate the majority of our directors. Certain of these directors may also be officers or employees of our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries. Because of their current or former positions with our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries, these directors, as well as a number of our officers, own substantial amounts of our Parent’s common stock and options to purchase our Parent’s common stock. Ownership interests of our directors or officers in our Parent’s common stock, or service of certain of our directors as officers of our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries, may create, or may create the appearance of, conflicts of interest when such director or officer is faced with a decision that could have different implications for the two companies. For example, potential conflicts could arise regarding the desirability of acquisition opportunities, business plans, employee retention or recruiting, capital management or our dividend policy.
In addition, in connection with this offering, we and our Parent and certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries intend to enter into agreements that will provide a framework for our ongoing relationship, including a Master Agreement, a registration rights agreement, one or more shared services agreements, an intellectual property cross license agreement and a trademark license agreement. Disagreements regarding the rights and obligations of our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries or us under each of these agreements or any renegotiation of their terms could create conflicts of interest for certain of these directors and officers, as well as actual disputes that may be resolved in a manner unfavorable to us and our other stockholders. Interruptions to or problems with services provided under a shared services agreement could result in conflicts between us and our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries that increase our costs both for the processing of business and the potential remediation of disputes. Although we believe these agreements will contain commercially reasonable terms, the terms of these agreements may later prove not to be in the best interests of our future stockholders or may contain terms less favorable than those we could obtain from third parties. In addition, certain of our officers negotiating these agreements may appear to have conflicts of interest as a result of their ownership of our Parent’s common stock and holdings of our Parent’s equity awards.
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The terms of our arrangements with our Parent may be more favorable than we will be able to obtain from an unaffiliated third party.
Our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries currently performs or supports many important corporate functions for our operation, including but not limited to, investment management, information technology services and certain administrative services (such as finance, human resources, employee benefit administration and legal). Prior to the completion of this offering we intend to enter into one or more shared services agreements with our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries that provides us continued access to certain of these services. We negotiated these arrangements with our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries in the context of a parent-subsidiary relationship. We cannot assure you that following the completion of this offering, these services will be sustained at the same levels or that we would be able to replace such services in a timely manner or on comparable terms.
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If our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries ceases to provide services pursuant to one or more shared services agreements, our costs of procuring services from third parties may increase. As a standalone company, we may be unable to obtain such goods and services at comparable prices or on terms as favorable as those obtained prior to this offering, either of which could adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition. Other agreements with our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries also govern the relationship between us and our Parent or certain of our Parent’s other subsidiaries following this offering and provide for the allocation of certain expenses. They also contain terms and provisions that may be more favorable than terms and provisions we might have obtained in arm’s length negotiations with unaffiliated third parties. These operational risks could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. For additional discussion of the services, see “Certain Relationships and Related Party Transactions—Relationship with Our Parent—Shared Services Agreements.”
Our brand, reputation and ratings could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.
After this offering, we will remain a part of our Parent’s family of businesses and retain the “Genworth” name. Therefore, our customers, third-party service providers, credit providers and other persons may continue to associate us with our Parent’s brand, reputation and services, as well as its capital base and financial strength. Our Parent has substantial leverage and depends on us as a source of liquidity. See “—Our Parent’s indebtedness and potential liquidity constraints may negatively affect us” and “—The AXA Settlement may negatively affect our ability to finance our business with additional debt, equity or other strategic transactions.”
Our Parent continues to pursue its overall strategy with a focus on improving business performance, addressing financial leverage and increasing financial and strategic flexibility across the organization. Our Parent’s strategy includes maximizing its opportunities in its mortgage insurance businesses and stabilizing its United States life insurance businesses. However, our Parent cannot be sure it will be able to successfully execute on any of its strategic plans to effectively address its current business challenges (including with respect to stabilizing its United States life insurance businesses, debt obligations, cost savings, ratings and capital), including as a result of:
•an inability to attract buyers for any businesses or other assets our Parent may seek to sell, or securities it may seek to issue, in each case, in a timely manner and on anticipated terms;
•an inability to increase the capital needed in our Parent’s businesses in a timely manner and on anticipated terms, including through improved business performance, reinsurance or similar transactions, asset sales, securities offerings or otherwise, in each case as and when required;
•a failure to obtain any required regulatory, stockholder, noteholder approvals and/or other third-party approvals or consents for such alternative strategic plans;
•our Parent’s challenges changing or being more costly or difficult to successfully address than currently anticipated or the benefits achieved being less than anticipated;
•an inability to achieve anticipated cost-savings in a timely manner; and
•adverse tax or accounting charges.
We also rely on our Parent and/or certain of our Parent’s subsidiaries to provide certain investment management, information technology services and certain administrative services (such as finance, human resources, employee benefit administration and legal). If our Parent is unable or unwilling to provide such services in the future, we may be unable to provide such services ourselves or we may have to incur additional expenditures to obtain such services from another provider. Additionally, we may be subject to reputational harm if our Parent or any of its affiliates, previously, or in the future, among other things, becomes subject to litigation or otherwise damages its reputation or business prospects. Any of
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these events might in turn could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our Parent’s challenges in its long-term care insurance business, or other financial or operational difficulties, may also be attributed to us by investors and may have an adverse effect on the perception of our common stock as an investment. Additionally, any downgrade or negative outlook of our Parent’s ratings may negatively impact our ratings by certain ratings agencies whose rating protocols and group rating methodologies require adverse ratings actions in cases of parent or sister company rating downgrades or adverse rating actions. A downgrade in our ratings may adversely affect our relationship with current and potential customers as well as our ability to write new business and access capital on favorable terms. See “—Risks Relating to Our Business—Adverse rating agency actions have resulted in a loss of business and adversely affected our business, results of operations and financial condition, and future adverse rating agency actions could have a further and more significant adverse impact on us.”
Our Parent’s indebtedness and potential liquidity constraints may negatively affect us.
Our Parent as of September 30, 2020 had outstanding holding company indebtedness of $2.7 billion, including approximately $1.0 billion maturing in 2021. Our Parent has been a party to English Court proceedings brought by AXA since December 2017 (case title: AXA S.A. v. Genworth Financial International Holdings, LLC et. al.). On July 20, 2020, our Parent entered into a settlement agreement with AXA (the “AXA Settlement”) pursuant to which the parties agreed, pending satisfaction of certain conditions, not to enforce, appeal or set aside the liability judgment of December 6, 2019 and the subsequently issued damages judgment of July 27, 2020. Prior to the AXA Settlement, our Parent made a $134 million interim payment to AXA in January 2020. As part of the AXA Settlement, our Parent agreed to pay an initial further amount of £100 million to AXA, which was duly paid on July 21, 2020, and a significant portion of future claims that are still being processed.
In addition, a secured promissory note (the “Promissory Note”) was issued to AXA, under which our Parent agreed to make deferred cash payments totaling approximately £317 million in two payments in June 2022 and September 2022, subject to certain mandatory prepayment obligations. The Promissory Note also contains certain negative and affirmative covenants, representations and warranties and customary events of default. Future claims that are still being processed, which are currently estimated to be approximately £107 million, will be added to the Promissory Note as part of the September 2022 payment. To secure its obligation under the Promissory Note, our Parent pledged as collateral to AXA a 19.9% security interest in our outstanding common shares held by our Parent indirectly through GHI, among other things. AXA does not have the right to sell or repledge the collateral, and the security interest does not entitle AXA to voting rights. The collateral will be fully released upon full repayment of the Promissory Note and may be partially released under certain circumstances upon certain prepayments. Accordingly, the collateral arrangement has no impact on our consolidated financial statements. See “—The AXA Settlement may negatively affect our ability to finance our business with additional debt, equity or other strategic transactions” and “—Our brand, reputation and ratings could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.”
In connection with its quarterly financial reporting for the third quarter of 2020, our Parent disclosed that certain conditions and events occurring and expected to occur raise doubt about its ability to meet its financial obligations for the succeeding year. Our Parent’s obligations during the succeeding year include a partial settlement payment and interest relating to the AXA Settlement, approximately $1.0 billion of senior notes due in February 2021 and September 2021, and interest payments on its outstanding public notes. As of September 30, 2020, our Parent disclosed it had unrestricted cash and cash equivalents balance of $740 million and indicated that it did not expect to receive dividends from its subsidiaries as a source of liquidity during the year. However, our Parent stated its belief that management’s plans alleviated this doubt. During the quarter ended September 30, 2020, we successfully executed the offering of our 2025 Senior Notes. In addition, such plans include this initial public offering and certain other potential transactions including, for example, the issuance of convertible, equity-linked securities.
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Our Parent is relying on, among other things, the previously-declared dividend payable to GHI to be funded with the proceeds of this initial public offering to satisfy its obligations as they become due.
See “—Use of Proceeds.” In addition to the contractual obligations due within one year described above, our Parent also has, among other obligations, payments due to AXA under the Promissory Note described elsewhere herein. Because we are not responsible for our Parent’s indebtedness and we are currently predominately capitalized and funded independently of our Parent, if our Parent is unable to raise sufficient proceeds to satisfy its obligations as they become due, or our Parent were to default on its outstanding indebtedness, or were to default on the Promissory Note and result in AXA seeking to foreclose on the pledged shares held by our Parent indirectly through GHI or our Parent were to become subject to insolvency or other similar proceedings, we would not expect such events to result directly in an event of default or an insolvency event for us. However, any such event or the risk (or perceived risk) that any such proceedings could involve us, could negatively affect our ratings, our reputation, our business, our liquidity and results of operations, and could therefore have a negative effect on our ability to repay our own indebtedness, including the 2025 Senior Notes, or otherwise could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, liquidity and prospects. See “—Our brand, reputation and ratings could be affected by issues affecting our Parent in a way that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, liquidity and prospects.”
The AXA Settlement may negatively affect our ability to finance our business with additional debt, equity or other strategic transactions.
In connection with the AXA Settlement, our Parent entered into the Promissory Note with an aggregate principal amount of approximately $400 million, which is secured, in part, by a 19.9% interest in our common stock. The collateral will be fully released upon full repayment of the Promissory Note and may be partially released under certain circumstances upon certain prepayments. The final payment on the Promissory Note is due on September 30, 2022, with an interim payment due on June 30, 2022, and is subject to various mandatory prepayment provisions including, with certain exceptions, for future debt and equity financings and certain types of asset sales and other strategic transactions. While the Promissory Note is outstanding, these prepayment provisions, as well as other covenants and restrictions imposed on us may make it practically difficult for us to finance our operations and the operations of our subsidiaries with future debt or equity offerings, certain types of asset sales or other strategic transactions that may be potential sources of funding. To the extent we need funding to finance our operations or the operations of our subsidiaries or to satisfy other liquidity needs, there can be no assurance that we will be able to generate additional funding on favorable terms or at all. Such inability to finance our business could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, liquidity and prospects. See “—Our Parent’s indebtedness and potential liquidity constraints may negatively affect us.”
Risks Relating to Taxation
Changes in tax laws could have a material adverse effect on our business, cash flows, results of operations or financial condition.
Various tax regulations require the preparation of complex computations, significant judgments and estimates in interpreting their respective provisions. These aspects are inherently difficult to interpret and apply, and the Treasury Department, the Internal Revenue Service (the “IRS”) and other standard-setting bodies could interpret these aspects differently than us. In addition, these departments could issue guidance on how provisions of tax regulations should be applied or administered that could be different from our interpretation. Therefore, even though we believe we have applied tax laws and regulations appropriately in our financial statements it is possible that we have interpreted the rules differently and therefore applied the impacts to our financial results in a way that differs from those of these authoritative bodies. Likewise, changes in tax laws or regulations may be proposed or enacted that could adversely affect our overall tax liability and results of operations or financial condition. Changes in tax laws and regulations that impact our customers and counterparties or the economy may also impact our results of
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operations and financial condition. There can be no assurance that changes in tax laws or regulations will not materially and/or adversely affect our effective tax rate, tax payments, results of operations and financial condition.
We are subject to regular review and audit by tax authorities as well as subject to the prospective and retrospective effects of changing tax regulations and legislation. The ultimate tax outcome may materially differ from the tax amounts recorded in our consolidated financial statements and may materially affect our income tax provision, net income (loss), cash flows or operations.
We are jointly and severally liable for any U.S. federal income taxes owed by the Genworth Consolidated Group for taxable periods in which we are a member of the group.
We currently join in the filing of a United States consolidated income tax return of which our Parent is the common parent (the “Genworth Consolidated Group”) with our other insurance and non-insurance affiliates. As a result, we are jointly and severally liable for the U.S. federal income taxes owed by the group for periods in which we are a member of the group. Accordingly, for any taxable periods for which we are included in the Genworth Consolidated Group for U.S. federal income tax purposes, we could be liable in the event that any income tax liability was incurred but was not discharged by the Parent or any other member of the group. Our Parent, however, will be responsible for any taxes for which we are jointly and severally liable solely by reason of filing a combined, consolidated or unitary return with our Parent under the Master Agreement.
General Risk Factors
We are a holding company, and our only material assets are our equity interests in our subsidiaries. As a consequence, we depend on the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends and make other payments and distributions to us in order to meet our obligations.
We are a holding company with limited direct business operations. Our primary subsidiaries are insurance companies that own substantially all of our assets and conduct substantially all of our operations. Dividends from our subsidiaries and permitted payments to us under arrangements with our subsidiaries are our principal sources of cash to meet our obligations. These obligations include operating expenses and interest and principal on current and any future borrowings. Our subsidiaries may not be able to, or may not be permitted to, pay dividends or make distributions to enable us to meet our obligations. Each subsidiary is a distinct legal entity and legal and contractual restrictions may also limit our ability to obtain cash from our subsidiaries. If the cash we receive from our subsidiaries pursuant to dividends and other arrangements is insufficient to fund any of these obligations, or if a subsidiary is unable or unwilling to pay future dividends to us to meet our obligations, we may be required to raise cash through, among other things, the incurrence of debt (including convertible or exchangeable debt), the sale of assets or the issuance of equity.
The payment of dividends and other distributions by our insurance subsidiaries is dependent on, among other things, their financial condition and operating performance, corporate law restrictions and insurance laws and regulations. In general, dividends in excess of prescribed limits are deemed “extraordinary” and require affirmative approval from an insurer’s domiciliary department of insurance. In addition, insurance regulators and GSEs may prohibit the payment of ordinary dividends or other payments by the insurance subsidiaries (such as a payment under an agreement or for employee or other services) if they determine that such payment could be adverse to policyholders. Courts typically grant regulators significant deference when considering challenges of an insurance company to a determination by insurance regulators to grant or withhold approvals with respect to dividends and other distributions. More recently, the GSEs temporarily amended PMIERs as a result of COVID-19, requiring our approved insurer, GMICO, to obtain the GSEs’ prior written consent through June 30, 2021 before paying any dividends, pledging or transferring assets to an affiliate or entering into any new, or altering any existing, arrangements under tax sharing and intercompany expense-sharing arrangements. See “—Risks Relating to Our Business—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs,
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the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition” and “Regulation—Insurance Holding Company Regulation.”
Our liquidity and capital position are highly dependent on the performance of our subsidiaries and their ability to pay dividends to us as anticipated. The evaluation of future dividend sources and our overall liquidity plans are subject to current and future market conditions, among other factors, which are subject to change.
There has been no prior public market for our common stock and an active public market may never develop, which could cause our common stock to trade at a discount and make it difficult for holders of our common stock to sell their shares.
Prior to this offering, there has been no established trading market for our common stock, and there can be no assurance that an active trading market for our common stock will develop or, if one develops, be maintained. If an active public market for our common stock does not develop, or is not maintained, it may be difficult for you to sell our common stock at a price that is attractive to you or at all. Our Parent will negotiate the initial public offering price per share of common stock with the representatives of the underwriters and therefore that price may not be indicative of the market price of our common stock after this offering. Accordingly, no assurance can be given as to the ability of our stockholders to sell their common stock or the price that our stockholders may obtain for their common stock. The market price for our common stock may fall below the initial public offering price. In addition, the market price of our common stock may fluctuate significantly. Some of the factors that could negatively affect the market price of our common stock include:
•actual or anticipated variations in our quarterly operating results;
•changes in our earnings estimates or publication of research reports about us or the mortgage insurance industry;
•changes in market valuations of similar companies;
•any indebtedness we incur in the future;
•changes in credit markets and interest rates;
•changes in government policies, laws and regulations;
•changes impacting the GSEs, the FHA and Ginnie Mae;
•additions to or departures of our key management;
•actions by stockholders;
•speculation in the press or investment community;
•impact of our relationship over time with our Parent;
•strategic actions by us or our competitors;
•changes in our financial strength ratings;
•general market and economic conditions;
•our failure to meet, or the lowering of, our earnings estimates or those of any securities analysts; and
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•price and volume fluctuations in the stock market generally.
The stock markets have experienced volatility and price and volume fluctuations in recent years that have been unrelated to the operating performance of particular companies. These broad market fluctuations may adversely affect the trading price of our common stock. In particular, the market prices of securities of insurance and financial services companies have experienced fluctuations that often have been unrelated or disproportionate to the operating results of these companies. These market fluctuations could result in excess volatility in the price of shares of our common stock, which could cause a decline in the value of your investment. You should also be aware that price volatility may be greater if the public float and trading volume of shares of our common stock are low.
If our estimates or judgments relating to our critical accounting policies are based on assumptions that change or prove to be incorrect, our results of operations could fall below expectations of securities analysts and investors, resulting in a decline in the market price of our stock.
The preparation of our financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in our consolidated financial statements and accompanying notes. We base our estimates on historical experience and on various other assumptions that we believe to be reasonable under the circumstances, the results of which form the basis for making judgments about the carrying values of assets, liabilities, equity, revenue and expenses that are not readily apparent from other sources. If our assumptions change or if actual circumstances differ from those in our assumptions, our results of operations may be adversely affected and may fall below the expectations of securities analysts and investors, resulting in a decline in the market price of our stock. Further, the design and effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting may not prevent all errors, misstatements or misrepresentations. See “—Our business could be adversely impacted from deficiencies in our disclosure controls and procedures or internal control over financial reporting.
Future sales of shares by existing stockholders could cause our share price to decline.
Sales of substantial amounts of our common stock in the public market following this offering, or the perception that these sales could occur, may cause the market price of our common stock to decline. Upon completion of this offering, we will have outstanding shares of common stock, of which our Parent will beneficially own approximately % (approximately % if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares). All of the shares sold pursuant to this offering will be immediately tradable without restriction under the Securities Act, unless held by “affiliates,” as that term is defined in Rule 144 under the Securities Act. Of the remaining shares of common stock, shares will be “restricted securities” within the meaning of Rule 144 under the Securities Act, but will be eligible for resale subject to applicable volume, means of sale, holding period and other limitations of Rule 144 or pursuant to an exemption from registration under the Securities Act, subject to any restrictions on unvested shares issued under our share incentive plans and subject to the terms of the lock-up agreements described below. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, the representatives of the underwriters, may, in their sole discretion and at any time without notice, release all or any portion of the securities subject to lock-up agreements entered into in connection with this offering. See “Underwriting.”
We, our executive officers and directors and our Parent have agreed with the underwriters to a “lock-up,” meaning that, subject to certain exceptions, we, our executive officers and directors and our Parent and its direct affiliates will not dispose of or hedge any of their common stock or securities convertible into or exchangeable for shares of common stock during the period from the date of this prospectus continuing through the date 180 days after the date of this prospectus, except with the prior written consent of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC. Following the expiration of this 180-day lock-up period, shares of common stock will be eligible for future sale, subject to the applicable volume, manner of sale, holding period and other limitations of Rule 144 and subject to any restrictions on unvested shares issued under our share incentive plans. See “Shares Eligible for Future Sale.” Such sales may not be subject to the volume, manner of sale, holding period and other limitations
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of Rule 144. As resale restrictions end, the market price of our common stock could decline if the holders of those shares sell them or are perceived by the market as intending to sell them. In addition, our Parent, which holds approximately shares, or % of our outstanding common stock following this offering (approximately % if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares), will have registration rights, subject to certain conditions, to require us to file registration statements covering the sale of its shares or to include its shares in registration statements that we may file for ourselves or other stockholders in the future, although we will be restricted from filing such registration statements during the 180-day lock-up period. Once we register the shares for our Parent, they will be freely tradable in the public market upon resale by our Parent.
In the future, we may issue additional shares of common stock or other securities convertible into or exchangeable for shares of our common stock. Any of these issuances could result in substantial dilution to our existing stockholders and could cause the trading price of our common stock to decline.
If securities or industry analysts do not publish research or publish misleading or unfavorable research about our business, our share price and trading volume could decline.
The trading market for our common stock will depend in part on the research and reports that securities or industry analysts publish about us or our business. We do not currently have and may never obtain research coverage by securities and industry analysts. If there is no coverage of us by securities or industry analysts, the trading price for our common stock could be negatively affected. In the event we obtain securities or industry analyst coverage or if one or more of these analysts downgrades our shares or publishes misleading or unfavorable research about our business, our share price would likely decline. If one or more of these analysts ceases coverage of us or fails to publish reports on us regularly, demand for our shares could decrease, which could cause our share price or trading volume to decline.
Provisions of state corporate and state insurance laws, of PMIERs and of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and our amended and restated bylaws may prevent or delay an acquisition of us, which could decrease the trading price of our common stock.
State laws, PMIERs and provisions of our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and our amended and restated bylaws may delay, deter, prevent or render more difficult a takeover attempt that our stockholders might consider in their best interests. For example, such laws or provisions may prevent our stockholders from receiving the benefit from any premium to the market price of our common stock offered by a bidder in a takeover context. Even in the absence of a takeover attempt, the existence of these provisions may adversely affect the prevailing market price of our common stock if they are viewed as discouraging takeover attempts in the future.
The insurance laws and regulations of the various states in which our insurance subsidiaries are organized may delay or impede a business combination involving our company. State insurance laws prohibit an entity from acquiring control of an insurance company without the prior approval of the domestic insurance regulator. Under most states’ statutes, an entity is presumed to have control of an insurance company if it owns, directly or indirectly, 10% or more of the voting stock of that insurance company or its parent company. In addition, PMIERs may delay or impede a business combination or change of control involving our company. PMIERs requires us to obtain the prior written approval of the GSEs before we permit a material change in, or acquisition of, control or beneficial ownership of our company or make changes to our corporate or legal structure. These restrictions may delay, deter or prevent a potential merger or sale of our company, even if our board of directors decides that it is in the best interests of stockholders for us to merge or be sold. These restrictions also may delay sales by us or acquisitions by third parties of our insurance subsidiaries.
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and bylaws will include provisions that may have anti-takeover effects, such as prohibiting stockholders from calling special meetings of our stockholders and, from and after such time as our Parent ceases to beneficially own at least 50% of our
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outstanding common stock, from taking action by written consent. See “Description of Capital Stock—Anti-Takeover Provisions.”
We will be a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq rules and we will qualify for exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements.
Upon the completion of this offering, our Parent will beneficially own approximately % of our outstanding common stock (approximately % if the underwriters exercise in full their option to purchase additional shares). GHI is our direct parent and is a wholly owned subsidiary of our Parent. Because our Parent will control more than a majority of the total voting power of our common stock following this offering, we will be a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq rules. Under these rules, a company of which more than 50% of the voting power is held by another person or group of persons acting together is a “controlled company” and may elect not to comply with certain stock exchange rules regarding corporate governance, including:
•the requirement that a majority of its board of directors consist of independent directors;
•the requirement that its director nominees be selected or recommended for the board’s selection by a majority of the board’s independent directors in a vote in which only independent directors participate or by a nominating committee comprised solely of independent directors, in either case, with a formal written charter or board resolutions, as applicable, addressing the nominations process and such related matters as may be required under the federal securities laws; and
•the requirement that its compensation committee be composed entirely of independent directors with a written charter addressing the committee’s purpose and responsibilities.
For as long as our Parent continues to beneficially own more than 50% of our outstanding common stock, our Parent generally will be able to determine the outcome of many corporate actions requiring stockholder approval, including the election of directors and the amendment of our certificate of incorporation and bylaws. In addition, under the provisions of the Master Agreement that we intend to enter into with our Parent prior to or concurrently with the completion of this offering, our Parent will have consent rights with respect to certain corporate and business activities that we may undertake, including during periods where holds less than a majority of our common stock. See “Certain Relationships and Related Party Transactions—Relationship with Our Parent—Master Agreement.” Accordingly, you may not have the same protections afforded to stockholders of companies that are subject to all of the Nasdaq rules regarding corporate governance.
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation will contain exclusive forum provisions, which could limit our stockholders’ ability to choose the judicial forum for disputes with us or our directors, officers or employees.
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation will provide that, unless we consent in writing to the selection of an alternative forum, the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware shall be the exclusive forum for (i) any derivative action or proceeding brought on our behalf, (ii) any action asserting a claim of breach of a fiduciary duty owed by any of our directors, officers or other employees to us or our stockholders, (iii) any action arising pursuant to any provision of the DGCL or our amended and restated certificate of incorporation or our amended and restated bylaws or (iv) any action asserting a claim that is governed by the internal affairs doctrine. Unless we consent in writing to the selection of an alternative forum, the exclusive forum for any action under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act shall be the federal district court for the District of Delaware. This exclusive forum provision will not apply to claims which are vested in the exclusive jurisdiction of a court or forum other than the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware, for which the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware does not have subject matter jurisdiction or, in the case of an action under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, for which the federal district court for the District of Delaware does not have subject matter jurisdiction. This exclusive forum provision does not preclude or contract the scope of exclusive federal or concurrent jurisdiction for any
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actions brought under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act. Our exclusive forum provision will not relieve us of our duties to comply with the federal securities laws and the rules and regulations thereunder, and our stockholders will not be deemed to have waived our compliance with these laws, rules and regulations.
Any person or entity purchasing or otherwise acquiring any interest in any of our securities shall be deemed to have notice of and consented to this provision. This exclusive-forum provision may limit a stockholder’s ability to bring a claim in a judicial forum of its choosing for disputes with us or our directors, officers or other employees, which may discourage lawsuits against us and our directors, officers and other employees. If a court were to find the exclusive-forum provision in our amended and restated certificate of incorporation to be inapplicable or unenforceable in an action, we may incur additional costs associated with resolving the dispute in other jurisdictions, which could harm our results of operations.
Our business could be adversely impacted from deficiencies in our disclosure controls and procedures or internal control over financial reporting.
The design and effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting may not prevent all errors, misstatements or misrepresentations. While management continually reviews the effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting, there can be no guarantee that our internal control over financial reporting will be effective in accomplishing all control objectives all of the time. Any material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting or any other failure to maintain effective disclosure controls and procedures could result in material errors in our financial statements or untimely filings, which could cause investors to lose confidence in our reported financial information, and a decline in our share price.
Future offerings of debt or equity securities that may rank senior to our common stock may restrict our operating flexibility and adversely affect the market price of our common stock.
If we decide to issue debt securities in the future, it is likely that they will be governed by an indenture or other instrument containing covenants restricting our operating flexibility. Additionally, any equity securities or convertible or exchangeable securities that we issue in the future may have rights, preferences and privileges more favorable than those of our common stock and may adversely affect the market price of our common stock. Any such preference equity securities will rank senior to our common stock and will also have priority with respect to any distributions upon a liquidation, dissolution or similar event, which could result in the loss of all or a portion of your investment. Our board of directors will have discretion whether to make any such issuances. Our decision to issue such securities will depend on market conditions and other factors beyond our control, and we cannot predict or estimate the amount, timing or nature of our future offerings. In addition, should our Parent contribute, or be required to contribute, additional capital to us, you may experience immediate dilution to the value of your shares of common stock.
The reduced disclosure requirements applicable to us as an “emerging growth company” under the JOBS Act may make our common stock less attractive to investors.
We are an “emerging growth company,” as defined in Section 2(a)(19) of the Securities Act, including as modified by the JOBS Act, and may remain an emerging growth company until the earliest of (a) the last day of the fiscal year during which we had total annual gross revenues of $1.07 billion or more, (b) the last day of our fiscal year following the fifth anniversary of this offering, (c) the date on which we have issued more than $1.0 billion in non-convertible debt during the previous three-year period or (d) the date on which we are deemed a “large accelerated filer” as defined under the federal securities laws. For as long as we remain an “emerging growth company,” we may take advantage of certain exemptions from various reporting requirements that are applicable to other public companies, including, but not limited to, reduced disclosure obligations regarding executive compensation in our periodic reports and proxy statements and exemptions from the requirements of holding a nonbinding advisory vote on certain executive compensation matters, such as “say on pay” and “say on frequency” and stockholder approval
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of any golden parachute payments not previously approved. As a result, our stockholders may not have access to certain information that they may deem important.
Furthermore, while we generally must comply with Section 404 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act for our fiscal year ending December 31, , we are not required to have our independent registered public accounting firm attest to the effectiveness of our internal controls until our first annual report subsequent to our ceasing to be an “emerging growth company” within the meaning of Section 2(a)(19) of the Securities Act, including as modified by the JOBS Act. Accordingly, we may not be required to have our independent registered public accounting firm attest to the effectiveness of our internal controls until as late as our annual report for the fiscal year ending December 31, . Once it is required to do so, our independent registered public accounting firm may issue a report that is adverse in the event it is not satisfied with the level at which our controls are documented, designed, operated or reviewed. Compliance with these requirements may strain our resources, increase our costs and distract management, and we may be unable to comply with these requirements in a timely or cost-effective manner.
We cannot predict if investors will find our common stock less attractive as a result of our taking advantage of these exemptions. If they do, there may be a less active trading market for our common stock and our stock price may be more volatile.
The industry and market data we have relied upon may be inaccurate or incomplete and is subject to change.
We obtained the industry, market and competitive position data throughout this prospectus from (i) our own internal estimates and research, (ii) industry and general publications and research, (iii) studies and surveys conducted by third parties and (iv) other publicly available information. Independent research reports and industry publications generally indicate that the information contained therein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of such information. While we believe that the information included in this prospectus from such publications, research, studies and surveys is reliable, industry and market data could be wrong because of the method by which sources obtained their data and because information cannot always be verified with certainty due to the limits on the availability and reliability of raw data, the voluntary nature of the data gathering process and other limitations and uncertainties. In addition, we do not know all of the assumptions regarding general economic conditions or growth that were used in preparing the forecasts from sources cited herein. While we believe our internal estimates and research are reliable and the definitions of our market and industry are appropriate, neither such estimates and research nor such definitions have been verified by any independent source. Furthermore, certain reports, research and publications from which we have obtained industry and market data that are used in this prospectus had been published before the outbreak of COVID-19 and therefore do not reflect any impact of COVID-19 on any specific market or globally. The risk that industry and market data could be wrong is exacerbated when dealing with unprecedented scenarios, such as COVID-19, due to the lack of reliable historical reference points and data.
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CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND MARKET DATA
This prospectus contains forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. You can identify forward-looking statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. These statements may include words such as “anticipate,” “estimate,” “expect,” “potential,” “plan,” “intend,” “seek,” “assume,” “believe,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “would,” “likely” and other words and terms of similar meaning, including the negative of these or similar words and terms, in connection with any discussion of the timing or nature of future operating or financial performance or other events. However, not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. Forward-looking statements appear in a number of places throughout this prospectus and give our current expectations and projections relating to our financial condition, results of operations, plans, strategies, objectives, future performance, business and other matters.
We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that our actual consolidated results of operations, financial condition and liquidity may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this prospectus. There can be no assurance that actual developments will be those anticipated by us. In addition, even if our consolidated results of operations, financial condition and liquidity are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this prospectus, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in subsequent periods. A number of important factors could cause actual results or conditions to differ materially from those contained or implied by the forward-looking statements, including the risks discussed in “Risk Factors.” Factors that could cause actual results or conditions to differ from those reflected in the forward-looking statements contained in this prospectus include:
•The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and uncertainties, including the scope and duration of the pandemic and responsive actions taken by governmental authorities and its impact on the housing market;
•our ability to meet the requirements mandated by the GSEs and PMIERs, which could change in a way that is adverse to our business, such as the implementation of the Enterprise Capital Framework, which includes higher GSE capital requirements that could ultimately lead to increased costs to borrowers for GSE loans, which in turn could result in a smaller market for private mortgage insurance;
•a deterioration in economic conditions or decline in home prices;
•our ability to accurately estimate loss reserves;
•inaccuracies in the models we use in our business and the variability in loss development in comparison to our model estimates and actuarial assumptions;
•our ability to compete in the mortgage insurance industry, including with GSEs;
•changes to the role of GSEs or to the charters and business practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance;
•effects of alternatives to private mortgage insurance or lower coverage levels of mortgage insurance on the amount of insurance we write;
•a deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home prices;
•adverse effects to our brand, reputation and ratings due to issues affecting our Parent;
•effects of the AXA Settlement on our ability to finance our business with additional debt or equity;
•our ability to maintain customer relationships;
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•changes in the composition of our business or undue concentration of customers, geographic regions or products;
•our effectiveness in identifying and adequacy in controlling or mitigating the risks we face through our risk management programs;
•the extent of benefits we will realize from loss mitigation actions or programs;
•effects of interest rates and changes in rates;
•our ability to maintain or increase the capital required for our business in a timely manner and on the terms anticipated;
•the availability, affordability or adequacy of our CRT transactions in protecting us against losses;
•risks related to defaults by us or our counterparties to our CRT transactions;
•adverse ratings agency actions;
•the ability of our insurance subsidiaries to meet statutory capital and other requirements;
•our ability to manage risks in our investment portfolio;
•the effects of the Basel III Rules and the 2017 Basel III Revisions if implemented in the United States;
•the effects of the CFPB final rule defining QM;
•the effects of the amount of insurance we write as a result of the Dodd-Frank Act’s risk retention requirement or the definition of ARM;
•changes in accounting and reporting standards issued by the FASB or other standard-setting bodies and insurance regulators;
•our ability to on-board, retain, attract and motivate qualified employees and senior management;
•our servicers’ abilities to adhere to appropriate servicing standards and COVID-19 disruptions;
•our delegated underwriting program subjects us to unanticipated claims;
•potential liabilities in connection with our contract underwriting business;
•our ability to charge premiums that adequately compensate us for the risks and costs associated with the coverage we provide for the duration of a policy;
•a decrease in the volume of Low-Down Payment Loan originations or an increase in mortgage loan cancellations;
•the impact of unanticipated problems as a result of the failure or compromise of our computer systems;
•actual or perceived failure to protect the consumer information and other data we collect, process and store;
•the occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or a pandemic, such as COVID-19;
•losses in connection with future litigation and regulatory proceedings or other actions;
•changes in tax laws; and
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•changes in regulation of our insurance operations or adverse changes in our regulatory requirements.
Important factors referenced above may not contain all of the factors that are important to you in making a decision to invest in our common stock. In addition, we cannot assure you that we will realize the results or developments we expect or anticipate or, even if substantially realized, that they will result in the consequences or affect us or our operations in the way we expect or anticipate. In light of these risks, we caution you against relying upon any forward-looking statements contained in this prospectus. The forward- looking statements included in this prospectus are qualified by these cautionary statements. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date hereof. We undertake no obligation, except as may be required by law, to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Comparisons of results for current and any prior periods are not intended to express any future trends, or indications of future performance, unless expressed as such, and should only be viewed as historical data.
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USE OF PROCEEDS
We will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares of our common stock by the selling stockholder in this offering, including from any exercise by the underwriters of their option to purchase additional shares from the selling stockholder. The selling stockholder will receive all of the net proceeds from this offering, and will bear the underwriting discount and reimburse us for expenses attributable to their sale of our common stock. See “Principal and Selling Stockholder.”
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DIVIDEND POLICY
Our board of directors may in the future determine to declare and to pay a dividend on our common stock on an annual or more frequent basis based on our capital levels and in accordance with applicable laws and regulatory guidance. Any future determination relating to our dividend policy will be made at the sole discretion of our board of directors and will depend on a number of factors, including general and economic conditions, industry standards, our financial condition and operating results, our available cash and current and anticipated cash needs, restrictions under the documentation governing certain of our indebtedness, capital requirements, regulations, contractual, legal, tax and regulatory restrictions and implications on the payment of dividends by us to our stockholders or by our subsidiaries to us, and such other factors as our board of directors may deem relevant. The ability of our board of directors to declare a dividend is also subject to limits imposed by Delaware corporate law and the laws of North Carolina.
We are a holding company, and we have no direct operations. All of our business operations are conducted through our subsidiaries, each of which is a distinct legal entity, and certain legal and contractual restrictions may limit our ability to obtain cash dividends or distributions from them. Our ability to pay dividends depends on our receipt of cash dividends or distributions from our operating subsidiaries. Under PMIERs, the GSEs restrict the ability of our primary operating subsidiary to pay dividends and make other distributions to us unless the respective subsidiary has PMIERs available assets in excess of PMIERs minimum required assets. In addition, the PMIERs Amendment imposes temporary capital preservation provisions through June 30, 2021, that require an approved insurer to obtain prior written GSE approval before paying any dividends or pledging or transferring assets to an affiliate. Furthermore, prior to the satisfaction of the GSE Conditions, the GSE Restrictions and the Oceanwide Restrictions (if the China Oceanwide transaction closes) both require GMICO to maintain 115% of PMIERs Minimum Required Assets through 2021, 120% during 2022 and 125% thereafter. State restrictions, including North Carolina, on our insurance subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends or distributions to us, or any future similar restrictions adopted by the states in which our insurance subsidiaries are domiciled, also could have the effect, under certain circumstances, of blocking or limiting dividends, distributions, or other amounts payable to us by our subsidiaries without affirmative approval, or non-disapproval within a statutory timeframe, of state regulatory authorities. Under Delaware corporate law, our board of directors may declare dividends only to the extent of our “surplus,” which is defined as total assets at fair market value minus total liabilities, minus statutory capital, or if there is no surplus, out of net profits for the fiscal year in which the dividend is declared and/or the preceding fiscal year. See “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Business—As a holding company, we depend on the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends and make other payments and distributions to us and to meet our obligations,” “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Business—If we are unable to continue to meet the requirements mandated by PMIERs, the GSE Restrictions and any additional restrictions imposed on us by the GSEs, whether because the GSEs amend them or the GSEs’ interpretation of the financial requirements requires us to hold amounts of capital that are higher than we have planned or otherwise, we may not be eligible to write new insurance on loans acquired by the GSEs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition” and “Regulation—Insurance Holding Company Regulation.”
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CAPITALIZATION
[The following table sets forth our cash and cash equivalents and capitalization as of September 30, 2020, on an actual basis and an as adjusted basis giving effect to the sale of shares of our common stock in this offering.
This table should be read in conjunction with “Selected Historical Consolidated Financial Data,” “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and our combined financial statements and related notes included elsewhere in this prospectus.
As of September 30, 2020 | |||||||||||
Actual | As Adjusted | ||||||||||
(in thousands) | |||||||||||
Cash and cash equivalents | $ | 556,734 | $ | ||||||||
Long-term debt | 737,622 | ||||||||||
| Equity: | |||||||||||
Common stock ($0.01 par value; 1,000 shares authorized, 100 shares issued and outstanding actual; shares authorized, shares issued and outstanding, as adjusted) (1) | — | ||||||||||
| Additional paid-in capital | 2,369,259 | ||||||||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) | 183,747 | ||||||||||
| Retained earnings | 1,213,624 | ||||||||||
| Total equity | 3,766,630 | ||||||||||
Total Capitalization | $ | 4,504,252 | $ | ||||||||
______________
(1)In connection with the AXA Settlement, our Parent entered into a Promissory Note which is secured, in part, by a 19.9% interest in our common stock. The collateral will be fully released upon full repayment of the Promissory Note and may be partially released under certain circumstances upon certain prepayments. ]
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DILUTION
All shares of common stock being sold in this offering were issued and outstanding prior to this offering. As a result, this offering will not have a dilutive effect on our stockholders.
Our net tangible book value as of was $ , or $ per share.
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SELECTED HISTORICAL CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL DATA
The following tables set forth GMHI’s selected historical consolidated financial data as of and for each of the periods presented.
The selected historical consolidated financial data as of and for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and as of and for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The balance sheet data as of December 31, 2019 and 2018 and the statements of income data for each of the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 have been derived from the audited consolidated financial statements of GMHI included elsewhere in this prospectus. The balance sheet data as of September 30, 2020 and the statements of income data for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 are derived from the unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements of GMHI included elsewhere in this prospectus. The unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements have been prepared on the same basis as the audited consolidated financial statements and, in the opinion of GMHI’s management, include all adjustments, consisting only of normal and recurring adjustments, necessary for a fair presentation of the information set forth herein. Interim financial results are not necessarily indicative of results for the full fiscal year or any future reporting period.
The historical consolidated financial information is not necessarily indicative of future operating results. This information is only a summary and should be read in conjunction with “Risk Factors,” “Capitalization,” “Summary—Summary Historical Consolidated Financial and Operating Data,” “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and our consolidated financial statements and related notes appearing elsewhere in this prospectus.
Statements of Income Data | Nine Months ended September 30, | Years ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
(amounts in thousands) | 2020 | 2019 | 2019 | 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Revenues: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premiums | $ | 720,474 | $ | 619,083 | $ | 856,976 | $ | 746,864 | |||||||||||||||
| Net investment income | 97,890 | 86,900 | 116,927 | 93,198 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Net investment gains (losses) | (1,953) | 174 | 718 | (552) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Other income | 4,534 | 3,209 | 4,232 | 1,587 | |||||||||||||||||||
Total revenues | $ | 820,945 | $ | 709,366 | $ | 978,853 | $ | 841,097 | |||||||||||||||
| Losses and expenses: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Losses incurred | 290,785 | 39,288 | 49,850 | 36,405 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Acquisition and operating expenses, net of deferrals | 155,473 | 141,977 | 195,768 | 176,986 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs and intangibles | 11,453 | 11,415 | 15,065 | 14,037 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 5,512 | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||
Total losses and expenses | $ | 463,223 | $ | 192,680 | $ | 260,683 | $ | 227,428 | |||||||||||||||
| Income before income taxes and change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | 357,722 | 516,686 | 718,170 | 613,669 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Provision for income taxes | 78,482 | 110,774 | 155,832 | 129,807 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Income before change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | 279,240 | 405,912 | 562,338 | 483,862 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate, net of taxes | — | 81,929 | 115,290 | (30,261) | |||||||||||||||||||
Net income | $ | 279,240 | $ | 487,841 | $ | 677,628 | $ | 453,601 | |||||||||||||||
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Balance Sheet Data | As of September 30, | As of December 31, | |||||||||||||||
(amounts in thousands, except share and per share amounts) | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | ||||||||||||||
| Assets | |||||||||||||||||
| Investments: | |||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities available-for-sale, at fair value | $ | 4,808,379 | $ | 3,764,432 | $ | 3,274,497 | |||||||||||
| Investment in unconsolidated affiliate, at fair value | — | — | 424,756 | ||||||||||||||
| Total investments | 4,808,379 | 3,764,432 | 3,699,253 | ||||||||||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 556,734 | 585,058 | 159,051 | ||||||||||||||
| Accrued investment income | 28,965 | 24,159 | 21,922 | ||||||||||||||
| Deferred acquisition costs | 33,228 | 30,332 | 28,098 | ||||||||||||||
| Premiums receivable | 37,917 | 41,161 | 40,006 | ||||||||||||||
| Other assets | 44,993 | 54,811 | 30,358 | ||||||||||||||
| Deferred tax asset | — | 2,971 | 92,112 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | $ | 5,510,216 | $ | 4,502,924 | $ | 4,070,800 | |||||||||||
| Liabilities and equity | |||||||||||||||||
| Liabilities: | |||||||||||||||||
| Loss reserves | $ | 474,744 | $ | 235,062 | $ | 297,879 | |||||||||||
| Unearned premiums | 328,369 | 383,458 | 421,788 | ||||||||||||||
| Other liabilities | 171,751 | 57,329 | 77,394 | ||||||||||||||
| Long-term borrowings | 737,622 | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Deferred tax liability | 31,100 | — | — | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | $ | 1,743,586 | $ | 675,849 | $ | 797,061 | |||||||||||
| Equity: | |||||||||||||||||
| Common stock ($0.01 par value, 1,000 shares authorized, 100 shares issued and outstanding) | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Additional paid-in capital | 2,369,259 | 2,363,606 | 2,357,851 | ||||||||||||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) | 183,747 | 93,431 | (26,522) | ||||||||||||||
| Retained earnings | 1,213,624 | 1,370,038 | 942,410 | ||||||||||||||
Total equity | $ | 3,766,630 | $ | 3,827,075 | $ | 3,273,739 | |||||||||||
Total liabilities and equity | $ | 5,510,216 | $ | 4,502,924 | $ | 4,070,800 | |||||||||||
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MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion and analysis of our consolidated financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements and related notes for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019, our audited consolidated financial statements and related notes for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 included herein, “Prospectus Summary—Summary Historical Consolidated Financial and Operating Data” and “Selected Historical Consolidated Financial Data.” This discussion includes forward-looking statements and involves numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from management’s expectations, all of which may be exacerbated by COVID-19. See “—Trends and Conditions” below. Factors that could cause such differences are discussed in this section. For additional information, refer to the sections entitled “Industry and Market Data,” “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements and Market Data” and “Risk Factors.” We are not undertaking any obligation to update any forward-looking statements or other statements we may make in the following discussion or elsewhere in this document even though these statements may be affected by events or circumstances occurring after the forward-looking statements or other statements were made. Future results could differ significantly from the historical results presented in this section. References to GMHI, the “Company,” “we” or “our” herein are, unless the context otherwise requires, to GMHI on a consolidated basis.
Overview of Business
We are a leading private mortgage insurance company, having served the United States housing finance market since 1981, and operate in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Our mortgage insurance products provide credit protection to mortgage lenders, covering a portion of the unpaid principal balance of Low-Down Payment Loans in the event of a default. We believe we have built a leading platform based on long-tenured customer relationships, underwriting excellence and prudent risk and capital management practices. Our business objective is to leverage our competitive strengths to drive market share, maintain our strong capitalization and strong earnings profile and deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns to our Parent and its stockholders.
We generate revenues by providing mortgage credit protection to our customers in exchange for premiums, which we set based on our evaluation of the underlying risk we insure. Once the premium rate is established and coverage is activated, the premium rate remains unchanged for the first ten years of the policy; thereafter the premium rate resets to a lower rate used for the remaining life of the policy. In general, we can only cancel coverage for a failure to pay premiums or at servicer direction when the borrowers achieve the required amount of home equity. Our premium rate is applied predominantly to the original loan balance to determine either a monthly payment that the lender adds to the borrower’s monthly loan payment or a single upfront payment made by either the borrower or lender at loan closing. The amount of premiums earned from our insurance portfolio and the timing of premium recognition are also affected by persistency, which we measure as the percentage of loans that remain on our books based on the annualized cancellations for the period.
We also employ a CRT program to transfer a portion of our risk through both traditional XOL reinsurance arrangements and the issuance of MILNs. In exchange, we cede a negotiated amount of our premiums to the reinsurers and MILN investors that participate in our CRT transactions. Our net premiums earned (i.e., materially, the gross premiums charged less premiums ceded as part of our CRT program) represent the largest source of our revenues. Importantly, our CRT program helps to de-risk our operating model and spread the risk of loss across our counterparties while also providing capital relief.
We also invest our premiums in high quality, predominantly fixed income assets with the primary business objectives of preserving capital, generating investment income and maintaining sufficient liquidity to cover our operating expenses and pay future claims. The investment income generated through our investment portfolio is another significant source of our revenues.
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We generate profits through collection of premiums less losses, operating expenses and taxes. Our mortgage insurance coverage protects lenders against loss in the event of a borrower default by covering a portion of the outstanding principal balance of a loan. In the event of a borrower default, our coverage reduces and, in certain instances eliminates, losses to the insured by transferring the covered portion of the economic loss to us. Borrower defaults are first reported to us as new delinquencies when the borrower fails to make two consecutive monthly mortgage payments. Incurred losses are our estimate of future claims on these new delinquencies as well as any change in the prior estimates for previously existing delinquencies. In addition, incurred losses include estimates of future claims on IBNR delinquencies. Our incurred losses are based on estimates of both the rate at which delinquencies will go to claim (i.e. claim frequency) and the ultimate claim amount (i.e. claim severity). Claim frequency and severity estimates are established based on historical experience focusing on certain delinquency and loan attributes that influence the probability and amount of ultimate claim. Our estimates of ultimate claim amounts for each delinquency include loss adjustment expense (“LAE”) that are costs incurred in the settlement of the claim process such as legal fees and costs to record, process and adjust claims. Incurred losses are generally affected by macroeconomic conditions, borrower credit quality, certain loan attributes, underwriting quality and our loss mitigation efforts among other factors detailed below.
Key Factors Affecting Our Results
Our financial position and results of operations depend to a significant extent on the following factors, each of which may be affected by COVID-19 as noted below in “—Trends and Conditions.”
Mortgage Origination Volume
The level of mortgage origination volume is a key driver of our future revenues. The overall mortgage origination market is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the rate of economic growth, the unemployment rate, interest rates, home affordability, household savings rates, the inventory of unsold homes, demographics of potential homebuyers and credit availability. The mortgage origination market is also influenced by various legislative and regulatory actions and GSE programs and policies that impact the housing and mortgage finance industries.
Penetration
The penetration rate of private mortgage insurance is mainly influenced by the competitiveness of private mortgage insurance compared to alternative products for Low-Down Payment Loans provided by government agencies (principally the FHA and the VA), portfolio lenders that self-insure, reinsurers and capital market transactions designed to mitigate risk. In addition, the private mortgage insurance industry’s penetration rate is driven by the relative percentage of purchase mortgage originations versus refinances. Private mortgage insurance penetration tends to be significantly higher on new mortgages for purchased homes than on the refinance of existing mortgages, because average LTV ratios are typically higher on home purchases and therefore are more likely to require mortgage insurance. Lastly, we believe the penetration rate of private mortgage insurance is influenced by other factors, including lender preference, FHA competitiveness and risk appetite, loan limits, contractual terms including cancellability and loss mitigation practices.
Credit and Regulatory Environment
The level of private mortgage insurance market penetration (“market penetration”) and eventual market size is affected in part by actions taken by the GSEs and the United States government, including the FHA, the FHFA and Congress, that impact housing or housing finance policy. In the past, these actions have included announced changes, or potential changes, to underwriting standards, FHA pricing, GSE guaranty fees and loan limits, as well as low-down payment programs available through the FHA or GSEs.
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Competition and Market Share
Competitors include other private mortgage insurers that are eligible to write business for the GSEs. We compete with other private mortgage insurers based on pricing, underwriting guidelines, customer relationships, service levels, policy terms, loss mitigation practices, perceived financial strength (including comparative credit ratings), reputation, strength of management, product features and technology ease-of-use. We also compete with governmental agencies (principally the FHA and the VA) primarily based on price and underwriting guidelines.
Pricing is highly competitive in the mortgage insurance industry, with industry participants competing for market share and customer relationships. Recent pricing trends have introduced an increasing number of loan, borrower, lender and property attributes, resulting in expanded granularity in pricing regimes and a shift from traditional published rate cards to dynamic pricing engines that are intended to better align price and risk. Our risk-based pricing engine, GenRATE, was developed using our proprietary risk model, One Analytical Framework, which evaluates returns and volatility under both the PMIERs capital framework and our internal economic capital framework, which is sensitive to economic cycles and current housing market conditions. Our One Analytical Framework model assesses the performance of new business under expected and stress scenarios on an individualized loan basis, and it is used to determine pricing and inform our risk selection strategy that optimizes economic value by balancing return and volatility.
Seasonality
Consistent with the seasonality of home sales, purchase mortgage origination volumes typically increase in late spring and peak during summer months, leading to a rise in NIW volume during the second and third quarters of a given year. Refinancing volume, however, does not follow a similar seasonal trend and instead is primarily influenced by interest rates, which can overwhelm typical seasonal trends. Delinquency performance (new delinquency formation and cure behavior) is generally favorable in the first and second quarters of the year. Therefore, we typically experience lower levels of losses resulting from favorable delinquency activity in the first and second quarters, as typically compared to the third and fourth quarters. As the COVID-19 pandemic and United States housing market continue to evolve, we may see varying levels of delinquencies and cures from period to period.
The following table presents our NIW, number of cures and new delinquencies for primary policies, excluding our run-off insurance block with reference properties in Mexico and prior business activity in South Korea (“run-off business”), for the periods indicated:
Three months ended | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Dollar amounts in millions) | September 30, 2018 | December 31, 2018 | March 31, 2019 | June 30, 2019 | September 30, 2019 | December 31, 2019 | March 31, 2020 | June 30, 2020 | September 30, 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NIW | $ | 10,252 | $ | 9,290 | $ | 9,636 | $ | 15,790 | $ | 18,835 | $ | 18,170 | $ | 17,908 | $ | 28,396 | $ | 26,550 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| % change | (9.4) | % | 3.7 | % | 63.9 | % | 19.3 | % | (3.5) | % | (1.4) | % | 58.6 | % | (6.5) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cure counts | 7,781 | 7,511 | 8,726 | 7,791 | 7,382 | 7,464 | 8,649 | 9,795 | 20,404 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| % change | (3.5) | % | 16.2 | % | (10.7) | % | (5.3) | % | 1.1 | % | 15.9 | % | 13.3 | % | 108.3 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New delinquencies count | 7,783 | 8,616 | 8,424 | 7,606 | 8,547 | 8,659 | 8,114 | 48,373 | 16,664 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| % change | 11 | % | (2.2) | % | (9.7) | % | 12.4 | % | 1.3 | % | (6.3) | % | 496.2 | % | (65.6) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NIW
NIW occurs when a lender activates mortgage insurance coverage on a closed mortgage loan. NIW increases our IIF, premiums written, and premiums earned. NIW is affected by the overall size of the mortgage origination market, the penetration rate of private mortgage insurance into the overall mortgage origination market and our market share of the private mortgage insurance market.
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Pricing
Our pricing strategy is designed to charge premium rates commensurate with the underlying risk of each loan we insure. GenRATE provides us with a more flexible, granular and analytical approach to selecting and pricing risk. Using GenRATE, we can quickly change price to modify our risk selection levels, respond to industry pricing trends or adjust to changing economic conditions. We believe that GenRATE, powered by our proprietary risk model and our understanding of mortgage risk volatility, provides us with a highly sophisticated pricing regime that improves our risk selection and is designed to yield attractive risk adjusted returns through credit cycles.
IIF
IIF is used to determine premiums as the premium rate is expressed as a percentage of IIF. The vast majority of our IIF (98%) reflects the original loan balance for policies with level renewal premiums as of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019. The remainder of IIF is reflected using the amortized loan balance for policies with annual, amortizing renewal premiums. IIF is one of the primary drivers of our future earned premium. Based on the composition of our insurance portfolio, with monthly premium policies comprising a larger proportion of our total portfolio than single premium policies, an increase or decrease in IIF generally has a corresponding impact on premiums earned. Cancellations of our insurance policies as a result of prepayments and other reductions of IIF, such as rescissions of coverage and claims paid, generally have a negative effect on premiums earned.
Persistency Rate and Business Mix
The percentage of IIF that remains insured by us after taking into account annualized cancellations for the period presented is defined as our persistency rate. Because our insurance premiums are earned over the life of a policy, higher or lower persistency rates can have a significant impact on our profitability.
Loan prepayment speeds and the relative mix of business between single premium policies and monthly premium policies also impact our profitability. Assuming all other factors remain constant over the life of the policies, prepayment speeds have an inverse impact on IIF and the expected premium from our monthly policies. Slower prepayment speeds, demonstrated by a higher persistency rate, result in IIF remaining in place, providing increased premium from monthly policies over time as premium payments continue. Earlier than anticipated prepayments, demonstrated by a lower persistency rate, reduce IIF and the premium from our monthly policies.
The following table presents the weighted average mortgage interest rate on outstanding primary IIF as of September 30, 2020, excluding our run-off business. Prepayment speeds may be affected by changes in interest rates, among other factors. An increasing interest rate environment generally will
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reduce refinancing activity and result in lower prepayments. A declining interest rate environment generally will increase refinancing activity and increase prepayments.
Policy Year | Weighted average rate (1) | |||||||
| 2004 and prior | 6.08 | % | ||||||
| 2005 to 2008 | 5.43 | % | ||||||
| 2009 to 2012 | 4.20 | % | ||||||
| 2013 | 4.13 | % | ||||||
| 2014 | 4.45 | % | ||||||
| 2015 | 4.15 | % | ||||||
| 2016 | 3.88 | % | ||||||
| 2017 | 4.24 | % | ||||||
| 2018 | 4.75 | % | ||||||
| 2019 | 4.20 | % | ||||||
| 2020 (through September 30, 2020) | 3.42 | % | ||||||
Total portfolio | 4.06 | % | ||||||
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(1)Average Annual Mortgage Interest Rate Weighted by IIF.
In contrast to monthly premium policies, when single premium policies are cancelled by the insured because the loan has been paid off or otherwise, any remaining unearned premiums are earned at cancellation. Although these cancellations reduce IIF, assuming all other factors remain constant, the profitability of our single premium business increases when persistency rates are lower. As of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, single premium policies comprised 17% and 20% of IIF, respectively.
Credit Quality
Improved analytics, stronger loan manufacturing quality controls, and the regulatory implementation of the QM Rule have resulted in a significant improvement in the credit quality for loans originated in the private mortgage insurance market over time. Additionally, private mortgage insurers and the GSEs have maintained strong credit standards over the past decade, with average FICO scores for NIW persisting at levels significantly above historical averages. As a result, the industry is insuring loans from borrowers who should be better positioned to meet their mortgage obligations. More recently, in response to FTHB demand, there has been modest credit expansion that accommodates LTV over 95% and higher DTI ratios. Even after this expansion, private mortgage insurers and the GSEs have maintained strong credit standards well above historical norms.
Net Investment Income
Net investment income is determined primarily by the invested assets held and the average yield on our overall investment portfolio.
Net Investment Gains (Losses)
The recognition of realized investment gains or losses can vary significantly across periods as the activity is highly discretionary based on such factors as market opportunities, our capital profile and overall market cycles that impact the timing of selling securities.
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Losses Incurred
Losses incurred represent current payments and changes in the estimated future payments on claims that result from delinquent loans. We estimate an expense only for delinquent loans as explained in Note 2 to our audited consolidated financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 included elsewhere in this prospectus. Incurred losses depend to a significant extent on the following factors, each of which in turn may be affected by COVID-19 as noted below in “—Trends and Conditions.” Other factors influencing incurred losses include:
•deterioration of regional or national economic conditions leading to a reduction in borrowers’ income and thus their ability to make mortgage payments;
•legislative, regulatory or GSE action, or executive orders permitting or mandating forbearance or a moratorium on foreclosures or evictions due to events such as natural disasters or COVID-19;
•a drop in housing values that could expose us to greater loss on resale of properties obtained through foreclosure proceedings and an adverse change in the effectiveness of loss mitigation actions that could result in an increase in the frequency of expected claim rates;
•a drop in housing values that negatively impacts a borrower’s willingness to continue mortgage payments, potentially leading to higher delinquencies and ultimately claims;
•if the foreclosure occurs in a state that imposes judicial process, which generally increases the amount of time it takes for a foreclosure to be completed, which impacts severity of the claim;
•the credit characteristics in our in-force portfolio, as loans with higher risk characteristics generally result in more delinquencies and claims;
•the size of loans we insure, as loans with relatively higher average loan amounts generally result in higher incurred losses;
•the coverage percentage on insured loans, as loans with higher percentages of insurance coverage generally correlate with higher incurred losses;
•the level and amount of reinsurance coverage maintained with third parties; and
•the distribution of claims over the life of a book. Historically, the first few years after origination have relatively low claims, with claims increasing for several years subsequently and then declining. However, persistency, the condition of the economy, including unemployment and housing prices, and other factors can affect this pattern.
Credit Risk Transfer
We use CRT transactions to transfer a portion of our risk to third parties, through both traditional XOL reinsurance and the issuance of MILNs. Our CRT program reduces the volatility of our in-force portfolio and provides capital relief under PMIERs. When we enter into a CRT transaction, the reinsurer receives a premium and, in exchange, insures an agreed upon portion of incurred losses. These arrangements have the impact of reducing our earned premiums but also provide capital relief under PMIERs in exchange for a negotiated ceded premium rate. Under certain stress scenarios, our incurred losses are also reduced by any incurred losses ceded in accordance with our reinsurance agreements.
Operating Expenses
Our operating expenses include costs related to the acquisition and ongoing maintenance of our insurance contracts, including sales, underwriting and general operating costs. Acquisition expenses are influenced by the amount of our NIW. Acquisition costs that are related directly to the successful acquisition of new insurance policies, such as underwriting expenses, are deferred and amortized over
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the life of the underlying insurance policies. These deferred acquisition costs are referred to as “DAC.” The ongoing maintenance expenses of our insurance contracts are generally fixed in nature and include costs such as information technology, finance and legal, among others, including costs allocated from our Parent for certain activities on our behalf. See Note 10 to our audited consolidated financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and Note 9 to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 for information regarding our related party transactions.
Critical Accounting Estimates
The accounting estimates (including sensitivities) discussed in this section are those that we consider to be particularly critical to an understanding of our consolidated financial statements because their application places the most significant demands on our ability to judge the effect of inherently uncertain matters on our financial results. The sensitivities included in this section involve matters that are also inherently uncertain and involve the exercise of significant judgment in selecting the factors and amounts used in the sensitivities. Small changes in the amounts used in the sensitivities or the use of different factors could result in materially different outcomes from those reflected in the sensitivities. For all of these accounting estimates, we caution that future events seldom develop as estimated and management’s best estimates often require adjustment.
Loss Reserves
Loss reserves represents the amount needed to provide for the estimated ultimate cost of settling claims relating to insured events that have occurred on or before the end of the respective reporting period. The estimated liability includes requirements for future payments of: (a) losses that have been reported to the insurer; (b) losses related to insured events that have occurred but that have not been reported to the insurer as of the date the liability is estimated; and (c) loss adjustment expenses (“LAE”). Loss adjustment expenses include costs incurred in the claim settlement process such as legal fees and costs to record, process and adjust claims. Consistent with U.S. GAAP and industry accounting practices, we do not establish loss reserves for future claims on insured loans that are not in default or believed to be in default.
Estimates and actuarial assumptions used for establishing loss reserves involve the exercise of significant judgment, and changes in assumptions or deviations of actual experience from assumptions can have material impacts on our loss reserves and net income (loss). Because these assumptions relate to factors that are not known in advance, change over time, are difficult to accurately predict and are inherently uncertain, we cannot determine with precision the ultimate amounts we will pay for actual claims or the timing of those payments. The sources of uncertainty affecting the estimates are numerous and include factors internal and external to the Company. Internal factors include, but are not limited to, changes in the mix of exposures, loss mitigation activities and claim settlement practices. Significant external influences include changes in home prices, unemployment, government housing policies, state foreclosure timeline, general economic conditions, interest rates, tax policy, credit availability, and mortgage products. Small changes in assumptions or small deviations of actual experience from assumptions can have, and in the past have had, material impacts on our reserves, results of operations and financial condition.
We establish reserves to recognize the estimated liability for losses and LAE related to defaults on insured mortgage loans. Loss reserves are established by estimating the number of loans in our inventory of delinquent loans that will result in a claim payment, which is referred to as the claim rate, and further estimating the amount of the claim payment, which is referred to as claim severity. The estimates are determined using a factor-based approach, in which assumptions of claim rates for loans in default and the average amount paid for loans that result in a claim are calculated using traditional actuarial techniques. Over time, as the status of the underlying delinquent loans moves toward foreclosure and the likelihood of the associated claim loss increases, the amount of the loss reserves associated with the potential claims may also increase.
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Management monitors actual experience, and where circumstances warrant, will revise its assumptions. Our liability for loss reserves is reviewed regularly, with changes in our estimates of future claims recorded through net income (loss). Estimation of losses are based on historical claim and cure experience and covered exposures and is inherently judgmental. Future developments may result in losses greater or less than the liability for loss reserves provided.
In considering the potential sensitivity of the factors underlying management’s best estimate of our loss reserve, it is possible that even a relatively small change in the estimated claim rate could have a significant impact on loss reserves and, correspondingly, on results of operations. For example, based on our actual experience during the three-year period immediately preceding September 30, 2020, a quarterly change of 15%, or a 2-basis point change, in the average claim rate would change the gross loss reserve amount for such quarter by approximately $65 million. Likewise, a quarterly change of 5%, or a 6-basis point change, in the average severity rate would change the gross loss reserve amount for such quarter by approximately $22 million.
Investments
Valuation of Fixed Maturity Securities
Our portfolio of fixed maturity securities comprises primarily investment grade securities, which are carried at fair value. Estimates of fair values for fixed maturity securities are obtained primarily from industry-standard pricing methodologies utilizing market observable inputs. For our less liquid securities, such as our privately placed securities, we utilize independent market data to employ alternative valuation methods commonly used in the financial services industry to estimate fair value. Based on the market observability of the inputs used in estimating the fair value, the pricing level is assigned.
See Notes 2, 3 and 4 to our audited consolidated financial statements for additional information related to the valuation of fixed maturity securities and a description of the fair value measurement estimates and level assignments.
Other-Than-Temporary Impairments on Available-For-Sale Securities
As of each balance sheet date, we evaluate fixed maturity securities in an unrealized loss position for other-than-temporary impairments. We consider all available information relevant to the collectability of the security, including information about past events, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts, when developing the estimate of cash flows expected to be collected.
See Note 3 to our audited consolidated financial statements for additional information related to other-than-temporary impairments on fixed maturity securities.
Investment in Unconsolidated Affiliate
Prior to December 12, 2019, we held 14.4 million, or approximately 16.4%, of outstanding common shares of Genworth MI Canada Inc. (“Genworth Canada”), a publicly traded company on the Toronto Stock Exchange. We concluded that we have significant influence over Genworth Canada primarily due to board representation, and therefore, classified our investment in Genworth Canada as an investment in an unconsolidated affiliate.
We elected to account for the investment in Genworth Canada under the fair value option because the investment has a readily determinable fair value. Accordingly, the investment was recorded at fair value, and changes in the fair value of the investment for each reporting period are recorded in the consolidated statements of income. The change in fair value of the investment in Genworth Canada was $127.4 million and $(55.6) million in 2019 and 2018, respectively, and is included within change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate in the consolidated statements of income, net of tax provision (benefit) for income taxes of $12.1 million and $(25.3) million in 2019 and 2018, respectively.
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Revenue Recognition
The majority of our insurance contracts have recurring monthly premiums. We recognize recurring premiums over the terms of the related insurance policy on a pro-rata basis. Premiums written on single premium policies and annual premium policies are initially deferred as unearned premium reserve and earned over the policy life. A portion of the revenue from single premium policies is recognized in premiums earned in the current period, and the remaining portion is deferred as unearned premiums and earned over the estimated expiration of risk of the policy. If single premium policies are cancelled and the premium is nonrefundable, then the remaining unearned premium related to each cancelled policy is recognized to earned premiums upon notification of the cancellation. For borrower-paid mortgage insurance, coverage ceases at the earlier of prepayment or when the original principal is amortized to a 78 percent loan-to-value ratio in accordance with the Homeowners Protection Act of 1998.
We periodically review our premium earnings recognition models with any adjustments to the estimates reflected on a retrospective basis in current period income. These reviews include the consideration of recent and projected loss and policy cancellation experience, and adjustments to the estimated earnings patterns are made, if warranted. In 2019, the review resulted in an increase in earned premiums of $13.7 million. There was no adjustment recorded in 2018.
Changes in market conditions could cause a decline in mortgage originations, mortgage insurance penetration rates, persistency and our market share, all of which could impact new insurance written. For example, a decline in primary new insurance written of $1.0 billion would result in a reduction in earned premiums of approximately $4 million in the first full year. Likewise, if primary persistency declined on our existing insurance in-force by 10%, earned premiums would decline by approximately $90 million during the first full year, partially offset by higher policy cancellations in our single premium products and potentially offset by lower reserves due to policies no longer being in-force.
Trends and Conditions
The United States economy and consumer confidence improved in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the second quarter of 2020 as state economies reopened; however, certain geographies and industries have experienced slower recoveries because of the virus, the mitigation steps taken to control its spread or changed consumer behavior. The unemployment rate decreased to 7.9% in September 2020 after reaching a peak of 14.7% in April 2020. The economy remains weak compared to pre-COVID-19. Even after the recovery in the third quarter of 2020, the number of unemployed Americans stands at approximately 12.6 million, which is 6.8 million higher than in February 2020. Among the unemployed, those on temporary layoff continued to decrease to 4.6 million from a peak of 18.1 million in April 2020, but the number of permanent job losses increased to 3.8 million. In addition, the number of long-term unemployed over 26 weeks increased to 2.4 million. Specific to housing finance, mortgage origination activity remained robust in the third quarter of 2020 fueled by refinance activity and a strong surge in home sales. Refinance activity remained robust but relatively flat as compared to the second quarter of 2020. After experiencing a slowdown in sales during the second quarter of 2020, the purchase market improved in the third quarter of 2020 with sales of previously owned homes increasing 37% compared to the second quarter of 2020 and inventories declining from 4.1 months to 3.3 months. The pandemic continued to affect our financial results in the third quarter of 2020 but to a lesser extent than in the second quarter of 2020 as primarily evidenced by the elevated, but declining, servicer reported forbearance and new delinquencies during the third quarter of 2020.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our future business results is difficult to predict. We have performed and have periodically revised our scenario planning to help us better understand and tailor our actions to help mitigate the potential adverse effects of the pandemic on our financial results. While our current financial results to date fall within the range of our current scenarios, the ultimate outcomes and impact on our business will depend on the spread and length of the pandemic. Of similar importance will be the amount, type and duration of government stimulus and its impact on borrowers, regulatory and government actions to support housing and the economy, spread mitigating actions to curb the current
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increase in cases, the resurgence of the virus in the future and the shape of economic recovery, all of which are unknown at present. It is difficult to predict how long borrowers will need to use forbearance to assist them during the pandemic. Given that current forbearance plans may be extended up to a year, the resolution of a delinquency in a plan, whether it ultimately results in a cure or a claim, is difficult to estimate and may not be known for several quarters, if not longer. We are continuing to monitor COVID-19 developments, regulatory and government actions, and the potential financial impacts on our business. However, given the specific risks to our business, it is possible the pandemic could have a significant adverse impact on our business, including our results of operations and financial condition.
Specific to housing finance, the CARES Act requires mortgage servicers to provide up to 180 days of deferred or reduced payments (“forbearance”) for borrowers with a federally backed mortgage loan who assert they have experienced a financial hardship related to COVID-19. Forbearance may be extended for an additional 180 days up to a year in total or shortened at the request of the borrower. Federally backed mortgages include FHA and VA backed loans and those purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The CARES Act also prohibited foreclosures on all federally backed mortgage loans, except for vacant and abandoned properties, for a 60- day period that began on March 18, 2020. Since the introduction of the CARES Act, the GSEs as well as most servicers of non-federally backed mortgage loans have extended similar relief to their respective portfolios of loans. The FHFA extended the foreclosure moratorium until at least February 28, 2021 for mortgages that are purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. At the conclusion of the forbearance term, a borrower may either bring their loan current, defer any missed payments until the end of their loan, or the loan can be modified through a repayment plan or extension of the mortgage term. In addition, the CARES Act provides that furnishers of credit reporting information, including servicers, should continue to report a loan as current to credit reporting agencies if the loan is subject to a payment accommodation, such as forbearance, so long as the borrower abides by the terms of the accommodation. Many servicers have updated and improved their reporting to private mortgage insurers for when a loan is covered by forbearance. Servicer reported forbearance slowed meaningfully beginning in June 2020 and ended the third quarter of 2020 with approximately 6.7% or 61,183 of our active primary policies reported in a forbearance plan, of which approximately 63% were reported as delinquent. Forbearance to date has been a leading indicator of future new delinquencies; however, it is difficult to predict the future level of reported forbearance and how many of the policies in a forbearance plan that remain current on their monthly mortgage payment will go delinquent.
Market penetration and eventual market size are affected in part by actions that impact housing or housing finance policy taken by the GSEs and the United States government, including but not limited to, the FHA and the FHFA. In the past, these actions have included announced changes, or potential changes, to underwriting standards, including changes to the GSEs’ automated underwriting systems, FHA pricing, GSE guaranty fees, loan limits and alternative products, such as those offered through Freddie Mac’s IMAGIN and Fannie Mae’s EPMI pilot programs, as well as low-down payment programs available through the FHA or GSEs. On December 17, 2020, the FHFA promulgated the Enterprise Capital Framework, which requires significantly increased regulatory capital requirements for the GSEs. Higher GSE capital requirements could ultimately lead to increased costs to borrowers for GSE loans, which in turn could shift the market away from the GSEs to the FHA or lender portfolios. Such a shift could result in a smaller market for private mortgage insurance. For more information about the potential future impact, see “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Business—Changes to the role of the GSEs or to the charters or business practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance, could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition” and “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Business—The amount of mortgage insurance we write could decline significantly if alternatives to private mortgage insurance are used or lower coverage levels of mortgage insurance are selected.”
Estimated mortgage origination volume increased during the first nine months of 2020 compared to the first nine months of 2019 primarily as lower interest rates resulted in higher refinance origination volumes. The estimated private mortgage insurance available market increased driven by higher
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refinance originations and higher purchase market penetration. Given the volume to date, we expect mortgage originations to remain strong for the remainder of 2020 fueled by sustained low interest rates driving refinances and by continued strength in the purchase originations market.
Our primary persistency declined to 64% for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 compared to 80% for the nine months ended September 30, 2019. Lower persistency is impacting business performance trends in several ways including, but not limited to, offsetting IIF growth from NIW, elevating single premium policy cancellations along with single premiums earned and accelerating the amortization of our existing reinsurance transactions reducing their associated PMIERs capital credit in the current year.
The United States private mortgage insurance industry is highly competitive. There are currently six active mortgage insurers, including us. The majority of our NIW is priced using our proprietary risk-based pricing engine, GenRATE, which provides lenders with a granular approach to pricing for borrowers. All active United States mortgage insurers utilize proprietary risk-based pricing engines. Given evolving market dynamics, we expect price competition to remain highly competitive. For more information on the potential impacts due to competition, see “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Business—Competition within the mortgage insurance industry could result in the loss of market share, loss of customers, lower premiums, wider credit guidelines and other changes that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.” At the same time, we believe mortgage insurers, including us, consider many variables when pricing their NIW including the prevailing and future macroeconomic conditions. We made pricing adjustments in the third quarter of 2020 taking into account improving market conditions, portfolio performance to date through the pandemic and competitive factors.
NIW of $72.9 billion increased 65% in the nine months ended September 30, 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 primarily due to higher mortgage refinancing originations, a larger private mortgage insurance market and our higher estimated market share. Our market share is influenced by the execution of our go to market strategy, including but not limited to, pricing competitiveness relative to our peers and our selective participation in forward commitment transactions. Our market share remains impacted by the negative ratings differential relative to our competitors, concerns expressed about our Parent’s financial condition and the possible transaction with China Oceanwide. We continue to manage the quality of new business through pricing and our underwriting guidelines, which we modify from time to time when circumstances warrant.
Net earned premiums increased in the nine months ended September 30, 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 primarily from growth in our IIF and from an increase in single premium policy cancellations driven largely by higher mortgage refinancing, partially offset by higher ceded premiums from reinsurance transactions executed in the current year and lower average premium rates. As a result of COVID-19, we experienced a significant increase in the number of reported delinquent loans during the second and third quarters of 2020 as compared to recent quarters prior to COVID-19. During this time and consistent with prior years, servicers continued the practice of remitting premium during the early stages of default. As a result, we did not experience an impact to earned premiums during the first nine months of 2020. Additionally, we have a business practice of refunding the post-delinquent premiums to the insured party if the delinquent loan goes to claim. We record a liability and a reduction to net earned premiums for the post-delinquent premiums we expect to refund. The post-delinquent premium liability recorded during the first nine months of 2020 associated with the increased number of delinquent loans was not significant to the change in earned premiums during the first nine months of 2020 as a result of the high concentration of new delinquencies being subject to a servicer reported forbearance plan and the lower estimated rate at which delinquencies go to claim (“roll rates” or “claim rates”) for these loans. The post-default premium liability increased by $1.7 million as a result of COVID-19 delinquencies and the total liability for all delinquencies was $7.7 million as of September 30, 2020.
As a result of COVID-19, certain state insurance regulators have issued orders or provided guidance to insurers requiring or requesting the provision of grace periods of varying lengths to insureds in the event of non-payment of premium. Regulators differ greatly in their approaches but generally focus on the
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avoidance of cancellation of coverage for non-payment. We currently comply with all state regulatory requirements and requests. If timely payment is not made, future premiums could decrease and the certificate of insurance could be subject to cancellation after 60 days, or such longer time as required under applicable law. During the first nine months of 2020, servicers also continued to remit premium on non-delinquent loans and therefore we did not experience a significant change to earned premiums.
While COVID-19 is unique in that it is a sudden, global economic disruption stemming from a health crisis, we have experience with the financial impacts of sudden, unexpected economic events on our business. Prior localized natural disasters, such as hurricanes, have helped inform our view of the severity and potential duration of the economic shock caused by the efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19. Similar to our hurricane experience, borrowers who have experienced a financial hardship including, but not limited to, the loss of income due to the closing of a business or the loss of a job have taken advantage of available forbearance programs and payment deferral options. As a result, we have seen elevated new delinquencies, but as in past natural disasters, those delinquencies may cure at a higher rate than traditional delinquencies should economic activity quickly return to pre-COVID-19 levels. Severity of loss on loans that do go to claim, however, may be negatively impacted by the extended forbearance timeline, the associated elevated expenses such as accumulated interest, the higher loan amount of the recent new delinquencies and home price depreciation, if any. Unlike a hurricane where the natural disaster occurs at a point in time and the rebuild starts soon after, COVID-19 is an ongoing health crisis and we do not know when it will end, making it more difficult to determine the effectiveness of forbearance and the resulting roll rates for new delinquencies in forbearance plans. Given this difference, our prior hurricane experience was relied upon as one consideration, of many, in the establishment of an appropriate roll rate estimate for new delinquencies in forbearance plans that have emerged as a result of COVID-19.
Our losses for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 were $291 million with an associated loss ratio of 40% as compared to $39 million of losses and a loss ratio of 6% for the nine months ended September 30, 2019 largely from higher new delinquencies driven primarily by an increase in borrower forbearance as a result of COVID-19 in the current year. We also strengthened reserves on existing delinquencies by an additional $28 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2020 driven primarily by the deterioration of early cure emergence patterns impacting claim frequency along with a modest increase in claim severity. This reserve strengthening compares to a favorable reserve adjustment of $10 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2019 mostly associated with lower expected claim rates. In addition, we experienced lower net benefits from cures and aging of existing delinquencies in the current year. New primary delinquencies of 73,151 contributed $258 million of loss expense for the nine months ended September 30, 2020, of which $231 million of loss expense in the second and third quarters of 2020 was calculated by applying a blended estimated roll rate between the estimate for existing pre-COVID-19 early stage delinquencies and our past hurricane-related roll rates, which were materially lower given the effectiveness of forbearance and government assistance programs. Approximately 85% of our primary new delinquencies during the second and third quarters of 2020 were subject to a forbearance plan as compared to less than 5% in recent quarters prior to COVID-19. For the nine months ended September 30, 2019, we had $90 million of loss expense from 24,577 new primary delinquencies. Prior to COVID-19, traditional measures of credit quality, such as FICO score and whether a loan had a prior delinquency were most predictive of new delinquencies. Because the pandemic has affected a broad portion of the population, attribution analysis of COVID-19 new delinquencies revealed that additional factors such as higher DTI ratios, geographic regions more affected by the virus or with a higher concentration of affected industries, loan size, and servicer process differences rose in significance.
As of September 30, 2020, GMICO’s RTC ratio under the current regulatory framework as established under North Carolina law and enforced by the NCDOI, GMICO’s domestic insurance regulator, was approximately 12.3:1, compared with a RTC ratio of 12.5:1 as of December 31, 2019. GMICO’s RTC ratio remains below the NCDOI’s maximum RTC ratio of 25:1. North Carolina’s calculation of RTC excludes the RIF for delinquent loans given the established loss reserves against all
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delinquencies. As a result, we do not expect any immediate, material pressure to GMICO’s RTC ratio in the short term as a result of COVID-19. GMICO’s ongoing RTC ratio will depend principally on the magnitude of future losses incurred by GMICO, the effectiveness of ongoing loss mitigation activities, new business volume and profitability, the amount of policy lapses and the amount of additional capital that is generated or distributed by the business or capital support (if any) that we or our Parent may provide.
Under PMIERs, we are subject to operational and financial requirements that private mortgage insurers must meet in order to remain eligible to insure loans that are purchased by the GSEs. Each approved mortgage insurer is required to provide the GSEs with an annual certification and a quarterly report evidencing its compliance with PMIERs. On June 29, 2020, the GSEs issued the PMIERs Amendment in light of COVID-19, which included both temporary and permanent amendments to PMIERs and became effective on June 30, 2020. In September 2020, the GSEs issued an amended and restated version of the PMIERs Amendment that clarifies Section I (Risk-Based Requirement Asset Amount Factors), which became effective on June 30, 2020, and includes a new Section V (Delinquency Reporting), which became effective on December 31, 2020. On December 4, 2020, the GSEs issued an amended and restated version of the PMIERs Amendment that revised and replaced the version issued in September 2020. The December 4, 2020 version extended the application of reduced PMIERs capital factors to each non-performing loan that has an initial missed payment occurring on or after March 1, 2020 and prior to April 1, 2021 and capital preservation period from March 31, 2021 to June 30, 2021. With respect to loans that became non-performing due to a COVID-19 hardship, PMIERs was temporarily amended with respect to each non-performing loan that (i) has an initial missed payment occurring on or after March 1, 2020 and prior to April 1, 2021 or (ii) is subject to a forbearance plan granted in response to a COVID-19 hardship, the terms of which are materially consistent with terms of forbearance plans offered by the GSEs. The risk-based required asset amount factor for the non-performing loan will be the greater of (a) the applicable risk-based required asset amount factor for a performing loan were it not delinquent, and (b) the product of a 0.30 multiplier and the applicable risk-based required asset amount factor for a non-performing loan. In the case of (i), absent the loan being subject to a forbearance plan described in (ii) above, the 0.30 multiplier will be applicable for no longer than three calendar months beginning with the month in which the loan became a non-performing loan due to having missed two monthly payments. Loans subject to a forbearance plan described in (ii) above include those that are either in a repayment plan or loan modification trial period following the forbearance plan unless reported to the approved insurer that the loan is no longer in such forbearance plan, repayment plan, or loan modification trial period. The PMIERs Amendment also imposes temporary capital preservation provisions through June 30, 2021 that require an approved insurer to obtain prior written GSE approval before paying any dividends, pledging or transferring assets to an affiliate or entering into any new, or altering any existing, arrangements under tax sharing and intercompany expense-sharing agreements, even if such insurer has a surplus of available assets. Lastly, the PMIERs Amendment imposes permanent revisions to the risk-based required asset amount factor for non-performing loans for properties located in future FEMA-Declared Major Disaster Areas eligible for individual assistance.
In September 2020, the GSEs imposed the GSE Restrictions with respect to capital on our business. These restrictions will remain in effect until the later of six quarters or until the following collective GSE Conditions are met: (i) approval of GMICO’s plan to secure additional capital, if needed, (ii) GMICO obtains “BBB+”/“Baa1” (or higher) rating from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch for two consecutive quarters and (iii) our Parent achieves certain financial metrics. Prior to the satisfaction of the GSE Conditions, the GSE Restrictions require:
•GMICO to maintain 115% of PMIERs Minimum Required Assets through 2021, 120% during 2022 and 125% thereafter;
•the Company to retain $300 million of our holding company cash that can be drawn down exclusively for our debt service or to contribute to GMICO to meet its regulatory capital needs including PMIERs; and
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•Written approval must be received from the GSEs before any additional debt issuance by either GMICO or us.
As of September 30, 2020, we had estimated available assets of $4,451 million against $3,377 million net required assets under PMIERs compared to available assets of $4,218 million against $2,943 million net required assets as of June 30, 2020. The estimated sufficiency as of September 30, 2020 was $1,074 million or 132% above the published PMIERs requirements, compared to $1,275 million or 143% above the published PMIERs requirements as of June 30, 2020. PMIERs sufficiency is based on the published requirements applicable to private mortgage insurers and does not give effect to the GSE Restrictions recently imposed on our business. The reduction in the published PMIERs sufficiency was driven in part by elevated NIW in the third quarter of 2020, partially offset by elevated lapses driven by prevailing low interest rates. In addition, elevated lapses drove an acceleration of the amortization of our existing reinsurance transactions reducing their PMIERs capital credit in the third quarter of 2020. These factors were partially offset by growth in business cash flows in the third quarter of 2020. In addition, our PMIERs required assets as of September 30, 2020 benefited from the application of a 0.30 multiplier applied to the risk-based required asset amount factor for certain non-performing loans. The application of the 0.30 multiplier to all eligible delinquencies provided $1,217 million of benefit to our September 30, 2020 PMIERs required assets compared to $1,057 million benefit as of June 30, 2020.
Our CRT transactions provided an estimated aggregate of $777 million of PMIERs capital credit as of September 30, 2020. On October 22, 2020, we obtained approximately $350 million of fully collateralized XOL reinsurance coverage from Triangle Re 2020-1 Ltd. (“Triangle Re 2020-1”) on a portfolio of existing mortgage insurance policies written from January 2020 through August 2020. Triangle Re 2020-1 financed the reinsurance coverage by issuing MILNs in an aggregate amount of $350 million to unaffiliated investors. The notes are non-recourse to us and our affiliates. For additional details see Note 6 to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019. If we gave effect to this transaction in the third quarter of 2020, our PMIERs sufficiency would have increased to $1,424 million or 147% above the published PMIERs requirements. We may execute future CRT transactions to maintain a prudent level of financial flexibility in excess of the PMIERs capital requirements in response to potential changes in performance and PMIERs requirements over time.
The GSE Restrictions govern the period prior to the close of the possible China Oceanwide transaction. For additional details related to the acquisition of our Parent by China Oceanwide see “Prospectus Summary—Our Parent and Principal Stockholder.” The GSEs issued separate conditions and restrictions in September 2020, which place identical restrictions on our business, if the China Oceanwide transaction closes (the “Oceanwide Restrictions”). Specifically, the Oceanwide Restrictions must remain in effect until the later of: (i) six quarters after the China Oceanwide transaction closes, (ii) the conditions in our Parent’s mitigation agreement with CFIUS are met and certified, or (iii) until the GSE Conditions imposed in connection with the GSE Restrictions are met. Prior to the satisfaction of these conditions, the Oceanwide Restrictions contain the same restrictions as the aforementioned GSE Restrictions. However, if China Oceanwide remits the $1.5 billion contribution to our Parent in connection with its capital investment plan, GMHI can distribute the $300 million of holding company cash held for debt service and GMICO capital needs less 13.5% of GMHI’s then current outstanding debt. Until the GSE Conditions imposed in connection with the GSE Restrictions are met, GMHI’s liquidity must not fall below 13.5% of its outstanding debt.
We paid dividends of $436 million in the third quarter of 2020 generated from the net cash proceeds of the 2025 Senior Notes. As a result of the uncertainty regarding the impact of COVID-19 and the recently imposed PMIERs Amendment and GSE Restrictions, we intend to preserve PMIERs available assets. Accordingly, we intend to defer the payment of additional dividends in 2020. The amount and timing of future dividends will depend on the economic recovery from COVID-19, among other factors.
Pursuant to its authority under the Dodd-Frank Act, the CFPB issued the QM Rule that became effective on January 10, 2014 and the Amended QM Rule that will become effective on March 1, 2021
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(with a mandatory compliance date of July 1, 2021), establishing underwriting and product feature requirements for mortgages to be deemed QMs. The regulations include the QM Patch, which provides that mortgages that comply with certain product features and meet the GSE underwriting and product guidelines are deemed to be QMs until the earlier of (i) when the GSEs exit FHFA conservatorship or (ii) the mandatory compliance date of July 1, 2021. The QM Patch permits loans that exceed a DTI Ratio of 43% to be eligible for QM status. Many of the loans that qualify under the QM Patch require credit enhancement, of which private mortgage insurance is the predominate form of coverage. On December 29, 2020, the CFPB promulgated a final rule amending the QM Rule, which removes the QM loan definition’s 43% DTI Ratio and replaces it with a limit based on the loan’s pricing. In addition, on December 29, 2020, the CFPB promulgated a final rule adding a “seasoning” approach to the QM “safe harbor.” The final rule exempts lenders from liability when they make a reasonable, good faith determination of a consumer’s ability to repay any non-QM loan that has experienced minimal delinquencies within the first three years after origination. See “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Business—Our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely impacted if, and to the extent that, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s final rule defining a QM results in a reduction of the size of the origination market or creates incentives to use government mortgage insurance programs.”
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Results of Operations and Key Metrics
Results of Operations
Nine Months Ended September 30, 2020 Compared to Nine Months Ended September 30, 2019
The following table sets forth our consolidated results for the periods indicated:
Nine months ended September 30, | Increase (decrease) and percentage change | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(Amounts in thousands) | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 vs. 2019 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Revenues: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premiums | $ | 720,474 | $ | 619,083 | $ | 101,391 | 16 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Net investment income | 97,890 | 86,900 | 10,990 | 13 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net investment gains (losses) | (1,953) | 174 | (2,127) | (1,222) | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Other income | 4,534 | 3,209 | 1,325 | 41 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 820,945 | 709,366 | 111,579 | 16 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Losses and expenses: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Losses incurred | 290,785 | 39,288 | 251,497 | 640 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Acquisition and operating expenses, net of deferrals | 155,473 | 141,977 | 13,496 | 10 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs and intangibles | 11,453 | 11,415 | 38 | — | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 5,512 | — | 5,512 | NM(1) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total losses and expenses | 463,223 | 192,680 | 270,543 | 140 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Income before income taxes and change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | 357,722 | 516,686 | (158,964) | (31) | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Provision for income taxes | 78,482 | 110,774 | (32,292) | (29) | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Income before change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | 279,240 | 405,912 | (126,672) | (31) | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate, net of taxes | — | 81,929 | (81,929 | (100) | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net income | $ | 279,240 | $ | 487,841 | $ | (208,601) | (43) | % | |||||||||||||||
Loss ratio (2) | 40 | % | 6 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
Expense ratio (net earned premiums) (3) | 23 | % | 25 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
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(1)Not measurable.
(2)Loss ratio is calculated by dividing losses incurred by net earned premiums.
(3)Expense ratio (net earned premiums) is calculated by dividing acquisition and operating expenses, net of deferrals, plus amortization of DAC and intangibles by net earned premiums.
Revenues
Premiums increased mainly attributable to higher IIF and an increase in policy cancellations in our single premium mortgage insurance product driven largely by higher mortgage refinancing, partially offset by higher ceded premiums from reinsurance transactions executed in the current year and lower average premium rates.
Net investment income increased primarily from higher average invested assets in the current year mainly driven by the purchase of fixed maturity securities using net proceeds from the sale of Genworth Canada in December 2019.
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Net investment losses in the current year were primarily driven by other-than-temporary impairments related to United States corporate available-for-sale fixed maturity securities and realized losses from the sale of fixed maturity securities. Net investment gains in the prior year were largely from realized gains from the sale of fixed maturity securities.
Other income primarily includes underwriting fee revenue charged on a per-unit or per-diem basis, as defined in the underwriting agreement. Other income increased primarily due to higher contract underwriting revenue mainly from a larger mortgage insurance market in the current year.
Losses and expenses
Losses incurred increased largely from $258 million of losses from new delinquencies driven primarily by a significant increase in borrower forbearance as a result of COVID-19 and strengthening of existing reserves of $28 million in the current year primarily driven by the deterioration of early cure emergence patterns impacting claim frequency along with a modest increase in claim severity. We also experienced lower net benefits from cures and aging of existing delinquencies in the current year. The prior year included a $10 million favorable reserve adjustment mostly associated with lower expected claim rates.
The following table shows incurred losses related to current and prior accident years for the nine months ended September 30:
(Amounts in thousands) | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||||
Losses and LAE (1) incurred related to current accident year | $ | 281,621 | $ | 81,925 | |||||||
| Losses and LAE incurred related to prior accident years | 10,222 | (42,714) | |||||||||
Total incurred (2) | $ | 291,843 | $ | 39,211 | |||||||
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(1)Loss adjustment expenses.
(2)Excludes run-off business.
Acquisition and operating expenses, net of deferrals, increased primarily attributable to higher costs allocated by our Parent, an increase in acquisition costs mainly driven by increased NIW and higher information technology and other operating expenses in the current year.
Our expense ratio (net earned premiums) decreased primarily from higher net earned premiums, partially offset by higher operating costs in the current year.
Interest expense in the current year relates to our 2025 Senior Notes. For additional details see Note 7 to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019.
Provision for income taxes
The effective tax rate was 21.9% and 21.4% for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019, respectively, consistent with the United States corporate federal income tax rate.
Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate, net of taxes
Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate consists of the change in the fair value of our previously held investment in Genworth Canada, which also includes dividends and the sale of common shares, net of taxes. The decrease resulted from the sale of Genworth Canada, which closed on December 12, 2019.
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Year Ended December 31, 2019 Compared to Year Ended December 31, 2018
The following table presents our consolidated results for the periods indicated:
Years ended December 31 | Increase (decrease) and percentage change | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(Amounts in thousands) | 2019 | 2018 | 2019 vs. 2018 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Revenues | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premiums | 856,976 | 746,864 | 110,112 | 15 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net investment income | 116,927 | 93,198 | 23,729 | 25 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net investment gains (losses) | 718 | (552) | 1,270 | 230 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Other income | 4,232 | 1,587 | 2,645 | 167 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 978,853 | 841,097 | 137,756 | 16 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Losses and expenses: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Losses incurred | 49,850 | 36,405 | 13,445 | 37 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Acquisition and operating expenses, net of deferrals | 195,768 | 176,986 | 18,782 | 11 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs and intangibles | 15,065 | 14,037 | 1,028 | 7 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Total losses and expenses | 260,683 | 227,428 | 33,255 | 15 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Income before income taxes and change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | 718,170 | 613,669 | 104,501 | 17 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Provision for income taxes | 155,832 | 129,807 | 26,025 | 20 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Income before change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | 562,338 | 483,862 | 78,476 | 16 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate, net of taxes | 115,290 | (30,261) | 145,551 | 481 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net income | 677,628 | 453,601 | 224,027 | 49 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
Loss ratio (1) | 6 | % | 5 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
Expense ratio (net earned premiums) (2) | 25 | % | 26 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
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(1)Loss ratio is calculated by dividing losses incurred by net earned premiums.
(2)Expense ratio (net earned premiums) is calculated by dividing acquisition and operating expenses, net of deferrals, plus amortization of DAC and intangibles by net earned premiums.
Revenues
Premiums increased mainly attributable to higher IIF and higher policy cancellations in our single premium mortgage insurance product driven largely by mortgage refinancing, partially offset by lower average premium rates in 2019. The year ended December 31, 2019 also included a favorable adjustment of $14 million related to our single premium earnings pattern review driven by our revised assessment of recent claim and cancellation experience and the refinement of loan attributes.
Net investment income increased primarily due to higher average invested assets and higher investment yields in 2019.
Net investment gains (losses) consist primarily of realized gains and losses from the sale of our fixed maturity securities.
Other income primarily includes underwriting fee revenue charged on a per-unit or per-diem basis, as defined in the underwriting agreement. Other income increased primarily due to higher contract underwriting revenue from a larger mortgage insurance market.
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Losses and expenses
Losses incurred increased primarily due to lower net benefits from cures and aging of existing delinquencies and less favorable reserve adjustments in 2019. We recorded $23 million of favorable reserve adjustments in 2019 compared to a $28 million favorable reserve adjustment in 2018. These adjustments were mostly associated with lower expected claim rates. These increases were partially offset by a lower average reserve on new delinquencies in 2019. Our loss ratio increased primarily from higher losses, partially offset by higher net earned premiums in 2019, which included a $14 million favorable adjustment associated with the review of our single premium earnings pattern. The favorable reserve adjustments of $23 million and the $14 million favorable adjustment from the single premium earnings pattern review reduced the loss ratio by three percentage points in 2019. The favorable reserve adjustment of $28 million reduced the loss ratio by four percentage points in 2018.
The following table shows incurred losses related to current and prior accident years for the years ended December 31:
(Amounts in thousands) | 2019 | 2018 | |||||||||
| Losses and LAE incurred related to current accident year | $ | 105,734 | $ | 116,842 | |||||||
| Losses and LAE incurred related to prior accident years | (55,917) | (80,755) | |||||||||
Total incurred (1) | $ | 49,817 | $ | 36,087 | |||||||
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(1)Excludes run-off business.
Acquisition and operating expenses, net of deferrals increased primarily driven by higher acquisition costs mainly driven by increased NIW in 2019 and higher information technology and other expenses due to continued investment in modernization of the business.
Amortization of DAC and intangibles consists primarily of the amortization of acquisition costs that are capitalized and capitalized software. Amortization of DAC and intangibles increased primarily driven by higher amortization of intangible assets in 2019.
Our expense ratio decreased slightly primarily from higher earned premiums, mostly offset by higher acquisition and operating expenses in 2019.
Provision for income taxes
The effective tax rate was 21.7% and 21.2% for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively, consistent with the United States corporate federal income tax rate.
Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate, net of taxes
Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate consists of the change in the fair value of our previously held investment in Genworth Canada, which also includes dividends and the sale of common shares, net of taxes. The increase was driven by our proportionate share of the change in fair value of our investment in Genworth Canada prior to the sale of our ownership interest in December 2019, as described below.
As of December 31, 2018, we held 14.4 million, or approximately 16.4%, of outstanding common shares of Genworth Canada. The fair value of the investment in Genworth Canada was $424.8 million as of December 31, 2018. Our regulated insurance subsidiaries acquired the investment in Genworth Canada from certain other consolidated subsidiaries of our Parent in 2011. On December 12, 2019, our Parent completed the sale of Genworth Canada to an affiliate of Brookfield Business Partners L.P. Concurrently, we sold our portion as well resulting in approximately $501.8 million in net cash proceeds.
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Use of Non-GAAP Measures
We use a non-GAAP financial measure entitled “adjusted operating income.” This non-GAAP financial measure aligns with the way our business performance is evaluated by both management and by our board of directors. This measure has been established in order to increase transparency for the purposes of evaluating our core operating trends and enabling more meaningful comparisons with our peers. Although “adjusted operating income” is a non-GAAP financial measure, for the reasons discussed above we believe this measure aids in understanding the underlying performance of our operations. Our senior management, including our chief operating decision maker, uses “adjusted operating income” as the primary measure to evaluate the fundamental financial performance of our business and to allocate resources.
“Adjusted operating income” is defined as GAAP net income excluding the effects of (i) net investment gains (losses), (ii) change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate and (iii) infrequent or unusual non-operating items.
(i)Net investment gains (losses)—The recognition of realized investment gains or losses can vary significantly across periods as the activity is highly discretionary based on the timing of individual securities sales due to such factors as market opportunities or exposure management. Trends in the profitability of our fundamental operating activities can be more clearly identified without the fluctuations of these realized gains and losses. We do not view them to be indicative of our fundamental operating activities. Therefore, these items are excluded from our calculation of adjusted operating income.
(ii)Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate—The change in fair value of our previously held investment in Genworth Canada could vary significantly across periods and was highly dependent on the performance of the Canadian housing market and Genworth Canada’s operating results. We managed the investment in Genworth Canada separately from our remaining investments portfolio through and up until the sale of our ownership interest in Genworth Canada in December 2019. Prior to the sale, we did not view the results of our investment in Genworth Canada as part of our fundamental operating activities. Therefore, this item is excluded from our calculation of adjusted operating income. Additionally, given the divestiture of Genworth Canada on December 12, 2019, we will no longer have any impact from Genworth Canada in our financial statements going forward.
(iii)Infrequent or unusual non-operating items are also excluded from adjusted operating income if, in our opinion, they are not indicative of overall operating trends.
In reporting non-GAAP measures in the future, we may make other adjustments for expenses and gains we do not consider reflective of core operating performance in a particular period. After this offering, we may disclose other non-GAAP operating measures if we believe that such a presentation would be helpful for investors to evaluate our operating condition by including additional information. See “Basis of Presentation and Non-GAAP Measures—Non-GAAP Measures.”
Total adjusted operating income is not a measure of total profitability, and therefore should not be considered in isolation or viewed as a substitute for GAAP net income. Our definition of adjusted operating income may not be comparable to similarly named measures reported by other companies, including our peers.
Adjustments to reconcile net income to adjusted operating income assume a 21% tax rate (unless otherwise indicated).
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The following table includes a reconciliation of net income to adjusted operating income for the nine months ended September 30:
(Amounts in thousands) | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||||
| Net income | $ | 279,240 | $ | 487,841 | |||||||
| Adjustments to net income: | |||||||||||
| Net investment (gains) losses | 1,953 | (174) | |||||||||
| Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | — | (118,799) | |||||||||
| Taxes on adjustments | (410) | 36,906 | |||||||||
| Adjusted operating income | $ | 280,783 | $ | 405,774 | |||||||
The change in fair value of the investment in Genworth Canada was $118.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2019 and is included within change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate in the condensed consolidated statements of income, net of provision for income taxes of $36.9 million. There were no infrequent or unusual items excluded from adjusted operating income during the periods presented.
Adjusted operating income decreased primarily attributable to higher losses largely from new delinquencies driven in large part by a significant increase in borrower forbearance as a result of COVID-19, reserve strengthening on existing delinquencies and from lower net benefits from cures and aging of existing delinquencies in the current year. These decreases were partially offset by higher premiums largely driven by higher insurance in-force and an increase in policy cancellations in our single premium mortgage insurance product primarily due to higher mortgage refinancing in the current year.
The following table includes a reconciliation of net income to adjusted operating income for the years ended December 31:
(Amounts in thousands) | 2019 | 2018 | |||||||||
| Net income | $ | 677,628 | $ | 453,601 | |||||||
| Adjustments to net income: | |||||||||||
| Net investment (gains) losses | (718) | 552 | |||||||||
| Change in fair value of unconsolidated affiliate | (127,397) | 55,570 | |||||||||
| Taxes on adjustments | 12,259 | (25,425) | |||||||||
| Adjusted operating income | $ | 561,772 | $ | 484,298 | |||||||
The change in fair value of the investment in Genworth Canada was $127.4 million and $(55.6) million for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively, net of provision (benefit) for income taxes of $12.1 million and $(25.3) million for the years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively. There were no infrequent or unusual items excluded from adjusted operating income during the periods presented.
Adjusted operating income increased primarily attributable to higher premiums and an increase in investment income, partially offset by higher operating costs and an increase in losses largely from lower net benefits from cures and aging of existing delinquencies in 2019. The years ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 included after-tax favorable reserve adjustments of $18 million and $22 million, respectively, which were mostly associated with lower expected claim rates. The year ended December 31, 2019 also included a favorable adjustment of $11 million after-tax related to our single premium earnings pattern review.
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Key Metrics
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